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HOOD

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Close $74.16EOD only

Max Pain

$78.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.57

4.8% from close

Price Gap

+3.84

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.68

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HOOD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

HOOD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish bias with gamma support near $78 and positive dealer positioning, but mixed flow and bearish macro cap upside. Thesis hinges on spot holding above gamma flip at $70; break below risks acceleration.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 GEX/flow contradict; +0.5 spot 1.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18.

Supports: Positive GEX $25.2M, spot near $78 max pain, VIX 18.43.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, high vol regime, bearish SPY (-1.2%) and QQQ (-1.51%).

🟢Gamma pinning near $78 supports sideways-to-up drift

⚠️High vol regime increases tail risk and uncertainty

📉Broad market weakness may pressure HOOD despite gamma support

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Vol is High; IV elevated relative to historical avg, consistent with VIX 18.43.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma Pinning with positive GEX ($25.2M) and gamma flip near $70. Pinning likely at $78 max pain.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow is Mixed; net premium shows both bullish and bearish positioning, no clear direction.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot is Below max pain ($78) by ~1.1%, suggesting potential drift toward pin.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Price ranges extend to two weeks and key levels (gamma flip, resistance) support intermediate holding period.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$72.15$82.12

Gamma support at $78, resistance at $82.12; spot below MP favors drift up.

Next 2 weeks

$70.24$84.04

Wider range $70.24-$84.04; gamma flip at $70 and resistance at $84.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $78 (2026-05-15); $78 (2026-05-22); $77 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 1w $72.15/$82.12

Support: $70.24 · $70.00

Resistance: $78.00 · $82.00 · $84.04

Gamma flip: ~$70.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 18,731 (9.3% below spot)

Structural: Max Pain $78 (all expiries); EM guardrails 72.15/82.12; Support 70.24/70.00; Resistance 78/82/84; Gamma flip ~$70.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+25.2M

DEX: +47.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$70 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 18,731 (9.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer gamma positive ($25.2M) with flip at ~$70; delta positive (47.6M shares).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is rich relative to VIX 18.43, indicating elevated implied volatility vs. realized.

Term structure: Term structure likely in contango with event kinks around weekly expiries.

Skew: Skew steep favoring puts; opportunity in selling put spreads near gamma flip $70.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$22.2M: put premium dominates despite higher call volume; bearish premium skew.

Directional prints: 54.2 call 79 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 9.9x; likely aggressive call buying for upside; $1.72 premium suggests bullish speculation. 78.9 put 55 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 16.5x; far OTM put bought as tail hedge; $0.04 cheap, bearish insurance.

Unusual: 78.9 put 55 OTM 2026-05-29 — Extreme vol/OI 16.5x; large bearish tail hedge at deep OTM strike; cheap premium. 54.2 call 79 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 9.9x; aggressive upside call buying; $1.72 premium, bullish sentiment. 417.6 put 110 ITM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 3.8x but extreme IV 417%; deep ITM put likely purchased for protection; $28.6 premium.

Risks & Catalysts

!Bearish market momentum may overcome gamma support.

!High vol regime can accelerate moves through key levels.

!Gamma flip at $70, if broken, could trigger sharp downside.

!Max pain $78 may act as resistance if spot approaches from below.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-06-26 $71.00/$60.00 put spread Why now: Gamma support and positive dealer positioning suggest limited downside near $78.	Bearish momentum could break $70 gamma flip, causing sharp downside. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-26 $86.00 call Why now: Unusual call buying at $79 strike suggests bullish sentiment.	Time decay and volatility contraction can erode premium. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-06-18 $80.00/$85.00 call spread Why now: Gamma support and positive dealer positioning near $78 favor a tactical bullish bet; the spread caps risk and requires modest move to breakeven.	If momentum fails and stock reverses below $78, the spread could lose value; bearish macro headwinds may cap upside.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-18 $80.00/$85.00 call spread

Buy $80/$85 call spread 2026-06-18. Max gain $3.24, max loss $1.76.

Why this play: Gamma support near $78 and positive dealer tilt favor upside; capped risk with good liquidity.

Debit: $1.44-$1.76

Max loss: $1.76

BE: $81.76

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $70.24. Adjust if target reached early.

Moderate bullish view seeking defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $70.24 support and rallies through $78 resistance → ENTER bull call spread: buy 2026-06-18 $80/$85 call spread at $1.44-$1.76

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot breaks below $70.24 support → CLOSE bull call spread to limit loss to $1.76

Tactical Summary

Neutral-to-bullish bias with gamma support near $78 and positive dealer positioning. Key support at $70.24, resistance at $78/$82/$84.04. Preferred trade: bull call spread $80/$85. Exit if spot breaks below $70.24.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.