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HOOD

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Close $74.16EOD only

Max Pain

$78.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.57

4.8% from close

Price Gap

+3.84

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.68

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HOOD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

HOOD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 15, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a weak upward magnet toward $68-$69 (near-term max pain). Confidence: 6/10. Negative GEX (-$11.2M) and net put premium (-$32M) remain dominant, but spot is now closer to near-term max pain and flow shows mixed signals.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 6; +1 GEX/flow still bearish-aligned; -1 spot vs MP conflict lessened; -0 net flow less extreme.

Supports: GEX -$11.2M (trending), net premium -$32.0M (bearish), P/C vol 0.55 (slight put volume edge).
Conflicts: Spot ($66.11) is now only ~3% below 4/2 max pain ($68), reducing pinning force. Mixed flow with large call premium at $55.

⚠️GEX -$11.2M — dealer hedging still amplifies moves, but less extreme than prior -$14M.

📌Spot near 2-day EM high ($69.29) and 4/2 MP ($68) — pin drift upward is plausible but weaker.

💰Massive $11M net call premium at $55 strike — could be a bullish bet or a sold put hedge.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 72% is extremely high, favoring premium selling but requiring defined risk due to trending gamma.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$11.2M indicates dealers are net short gamma; hedging will fuel momentum moves, but magnitude has eased.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow is Mixed with net bearish premium but notable bullish call prints; institutional positioning is conflicted.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot is Below near-term max pain ($68, $69), creating a gravitational pull upward, but the gap has narrowed significantly.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward from $68 to $80+ over 17 expirations, negative GEX persists, and flow conflict suggests a battle that will take weeks to resolve, not just this expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$62.93$69.29

Pinning to 4/2 $68 MP and 2-day EM high ($69.29) dominates; break below $62.93 accelerates negative GEX.

Next 2 weeks

$58.19$74.04

4/10 expiry MP at $69 provides a pin; GEX negative keeps volatility elevated within EM bounds.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $73 (2026-03-27); $68 (2026-04-02); $69 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $62.93/$69.29

Support: $60.00 · $50.00

Resistance: $80.00 · $100.00 · $170.00

Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,418

Structural: **Call OI walls** at $80, $100, $170 are massive and will cap rallies. **Put floor** at $50-$60 is major structural support. The $60 put OI (13,418) is the key near-term gamma flip and support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-11.2M

DEX: +43.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$60 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,418)

NTM gamma: Dealers are net short gamma (GEX -$11.2M). If spot drops 2% (~$64.78), they must sell shares to hedge, accelerating decline. If spot rallies 2% (~$67.44), they must buy shares, fueling the rally.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 72% is extremely elevated, offering rich premium for sellers but reflecting high single-stock risk.

Term structure: Humped near-term: 5/8 (39d) IV 74.8% > 4/2 (3d) 66.5% → ~8 vol-pt differential supports calendars selling the longer-dated higher IV.

Skew: Far OTM puts ($115-$130) trade at 105-117% IV (unusual activity), offering extremely expensive tail protection to sell via put spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$32.0M bearish; P/C vol 0.55 shows slight put volume dominance.

Directional prints: **$55C 4/24**: $11.1M net premium, massive OI — could be a large bullish bet OR a sold put hedge (selling $55 put). Given high IV, selling is more consistent. **$69C 4/10**: Vol 4,794 vs OI 409 (11.7x) at 63.8% IV — likely bought calls targeting the 4/10 max pain.

Unusual: **$50P 5/8**: Vol 184 vs OI 10 (18.4x) at 82.8% IV — opening of far OTM protection, highlighting continued tail fear.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Negative GEX (-$11.2M)**: Any directional move >2% will be amplified by dealer hedging.

!**Extreme IV (72%)**: High risk of vol crush on stability, punishing long premium positions.

!**4/2 Expiry**: Releases the $68 pin; post-expiry direction likely driven by underlying GEX/flow.

!**Earnings 4/29**: Implied move not yet priced; vol may spike into event, affecting longer-dated positions.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long Stock	Weak	Not recommended standalone. Negative GEX environment amplifies downside.	Accelerated selling on any dip.
Short Stock	Moderate	Consider on a break and hold below $63 (near 2d EM low) with target $60.	Violent counter-trend rally to $68-$69 max pain zone.
Covered Call	Moderate	Own stock, sell 5/1 $75 Call (~32 DTE) for ~$3.50 premium (est).	Stock drops below cost basis; cap gains at $75.
Cash-Secured Put / Put Spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/17 $60 Put (near 2w EM low) OR $65/$60 Bull Put Spread 4/17.	Break below $58.19 (2w EM low) challenges spread.
Long Calls	Weak	Avoid. High IV and negative GEX make directional calls expensive and prone to vol crush.	IV crush, time decay, negative gamma hedging pressure.
Long Puts / Bear Put Spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 4/17 $67 Put, sell $62 Put for a ~$2.00 debit spread.	Pinning to $68-$69 causes time decay; best entered after a failed rally toward max pain.
Iron Condor	Moderate-Weak	GEX is negative, so range-bound strategies have reduced edge. If attempted: $62/$60P x $72/$74C 4/10.	Negative GEX environment favors breakouts, not ranges.
Calendar / Diagonal	Strong	Reverse Put Calendar: Sell 5/8 $60 Put (IV 74.8%), Buy 4/10 $60 Put (IV 67.8%). Bet on pin above $60 and vol differential collapse.	Spot drops sharply below $60, hurting short gamma position.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Buy Jan 2027 $70 Call (~$14), sell monthly $75-$80 calls against it. Capital intensive; underlying bearish flow is a headwind.	Negative GEX and spot decline erode LEAPS value.

Top Plays

Reverse Put Calendar

Sell 5/8 $60 Put, Buy 4/10 $60 Put

Capitalizes on the term structure (sell high IV 74.8%, buy lower IV 67.8%) and the multi-week thesis that $60 (key gamma flip & support) will hold. Profits from volatility differential collapse and time decay on the short leg, with a neutral-to-bullish bias.

Credit: $0.80-$1.20

Max loss: Unlimited (short put risk below $60 + spread width)

BE: Complex; depends on vol change and spot. Ideal: spot ~$60+ at April expiry with vol differential narrowed.

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% of max credit. Exit if spot closes <$58. Roll short put down if challenged.

Traders comfortable with negative gamma who believe HOOD will be pinned above $60 through April, wanting to sell rich longer-dated vol.

Bull Put Spread (45+ DTE)

Sell 5/15 $60 Put, Buy 5/15 $55 Put

A longer-dated, defined-risk bet on the upward pin drift and the structural $50-$60 put floor holding. The 47 DTE collects rich premium in high IV, provides a wide buffer below the 2w EM low ($58.19), and withstands near-term pin volatility better than a weekly. The extra time is justified by the multi-week pinning thesis and high IV.

Credit: $1.40-$1.80

Max loss: $3.60

BE: $58.60

Mgmt: Close at 70% max profit. Exit if spot closes below $60 (short strike).

Patient, defined-risk traders bullish on the max pain magnet and structural support, willing to tie up capital for a higher probability credit.

Bear Put Spread (30-45 DTE)

Buy 4/17 $67 Put, Sell 4/17 $62 Put

Defined-risk expression of the dominant bearish regime (negative GEX, net put flow). The 18 DTE provides time for the trend to develop post-pin, and strikes are placed just below spot and at key support ($60), aligning with the expected move. Better than a weekly as it allows for pin resolution.

Debit: $2.00-$2.50

Max loss: $2.50

BE: $65.00

Mgmt: Close at 50-70% max profit. Exit if spot closes above $70 (above max pain cluster).

Defined-risk traders bearish on the underlying flow, needing a buffer above the 2-week expected move low.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot rallies to test $69 (2d EM high) and stalls for 1 hour → Enter Bear Put Spread: Buy 4/17 $67 Put, Sell $62 Put.

IFIf spot dips to tag $62.50 (near 2w EM low) and bounces → Enter Reverse Put Calendar: Sell 5/8 $60 Put, Buy 4/10 $60 Put.

IFIf spot breaks and holds below $63 (near 2d EM low) → Enter Short Stock position with target $60.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes above $73 (above near-term max pain cluster) → Exit all short put positions (calendars, put spreads) due to negative gamma acceleration risk upward.

EXITIf 3-day IV (66.5%) drops by 10 vol points (vol crush) → Take profits on all short premium positions (put spreads, calendars).

Tactical Summary

Thesis: A multi-week battle between structural bearish momentum (negative GEX, net put flow) and upward pinning gravity toward $68-$69. Invalidation: A sustained break above $73 shifts pinning to bullish control; a break below $60 accelerates the bear trend. The regime favors selling rich premium (puts for pin believers, calendars for vol structure) or defined-risk bearish bets post-pin. Top plays: 1) Reverse Put Calendar for vol traders, 2) Long-Dated Bull Put Spread for patient pin believers, 3) Bear Put Spread for defined-risk trend followers after a pin rejection.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.