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HOOD

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Close $74.16EOD only

Max Pain

$78.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.57

4.8% from close

Price Gap

+3.84

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.68

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HOOD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

HOOD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 15, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral with a slight upward bias toward $69-$73 (near-term max pain cluster). Confidence: 4/10. Positive GEX (+$5.0M) suggests pinning, but net bearish premium flow and spot's 5.6% gap from the nearest MP ($73) create a conflicted, low-conviction environment.

Confidence:

4 / 10

Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict (GEX +$5M bullish, net prem -$14.7M bearish); +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.6% from MP ($73).

Supports: GEX +$5.0M (pinning), P/C Volume 0.51 (call volume dominance), rising MP trend.
Conflicts: Net premium -$14.7M (bearish), spot ($68.90) well below 3/27 MP ($73), massive OTM put flow.

🔄GEX flipped from -$11.2M to +$5.0M — regime shift to pinning.

⚠️Net premium -$14.7M contradicts GEX signal.

📈MP ladder trends up from $68 to $80+ — structural bullish drift.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 70.4% is extremely high, favoring premium selling but requiring defined risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$5.0M concentrated near spot — dealers are net long gamma, promoting mean reversion and pinning.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow is Mixed with net bearish premium (-$14.7M) but call volume dominance (P/C 0.51); institutional positioning is conflicted.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ($68.90) is Below the nearest max pain ($73 for 3/27), creating a gravitational pull upward, but the gap is significant.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward from $68 to $80+ over 17 expirations, positive GEX supports pinning, and the flow conflict suggests a battle that will take weeks to resolve, not just this week's expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$64.04$73.77

Pinning dominates; break below $64.04 (1w EM low) invalidates.

Next 2 weeks

$62.03$75.78

GEX pinning and rising MP provide support; tail risk if $60 gamma flip breaks.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $73 (2026-03-27); $68 (2026-04-02); $69 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $64.04/$73.77

Support: $60.00 · $50.00

Resistance: $80.00 · $100.00 · $170.00

Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,829

Structural: **Call OI walls** at $80, $100, $170 are massive and will cap rallies. **Put floor** at $50-$60 is major structural support; $60 is the key gamma flip.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+5.0M

DEX: +41.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$60 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,829)

NTM gamma: Dealers are net long gamma (GEX +$5.0M). If spot drops 2% (~$67.50), they buy shares to hedge, supporting price. If spot rallies 2% (~$70.30), they sell shares, capping upside.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 70.4% is extremely elevated, offering rich premium for sellers but reflecting high single-stock risk.

Term structure: Humped near-term: 5/1 (29d) IV 73.0% > 4/10 (8d) 59.7% → ~13 vol-pt differential supports calendars selling the longer-dated higher IV.

Skew: Far OTM puts ($40, $115, $130) trade at 106-126% IV (unusual activity), offering extremely expensive tail protection to sell via put spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$14.7M bearish; P/C Volume 0.51 shows call volume dominance, P/C OI 0.66.

Directional prints: $73C 4/10: Vol 5,117 vs OI 2,543 (2.0x) at 57.4% IV — likely bought calls targeting the 3/27 max pain. $67P 4/10: Vol 2,495 vs OI 649 (3.8x) at 61.3% — could be protective puts sold or bought; selling is more consistent with high IV. One line summarizing all structural/hedging flow: Massive OTM put flow ($40P, $130P) indicates tail hedging, not directional conviction.

Unusual: $40P 4/17: Vol 9,517 vs OI 3,023 (3.1x) at 106.3% IV — extreme tail hedge purchase, highlighting fear of a crash.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$60 — a break below accelerates selling.

!Earnings on 4/29 — IV (73% for 5/1) is already elevated, risking post-event crush.

!Conflicting signals (GEX+ vs net prem-) — low-conviction increases whipsaw risk.

!Massive OTM call OI ($80-$170) — represents long-dated bullish bets that could act as a cap.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long Stock	Moderate-Weak	Not recommended standalone. Positive GEX provides cushion but net bearish flow is a headwind.	Stock drifts lower if pin fails; capital inefficient.
Short Stock	Weak	Avoid. Positive GEX and upward MP magnet create strong counter-trend pressure.	Violent rally to $73-$75 pin zone.
Covered Call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell 5/1 $75 Call (~29 DTE) for ~$4.00 premium (est).	Stock drops below cost basis; cap gains at $75 (below major OI wall).
Cash-Secured Put / Put Spread	Strong	Sell 5/1 $60 Put (near gamma flip/support) OR sell $65/$60 Bull Put Spread 5/1.	Break below $60 support challenges position.
Long Calls	Weak	Avoid. High IV (70.4%) and positive GEX (mean-reverting) make directional calls expensive and prone to chop.	IV crush, time decay, pinning.
Long Puts / Bear Put Spread	Moderate-Weak	Only if pin fails. Buy 5/1 $65 Put, sell $60 Put for a ~$2.50 debit spread.	Pinning to $69-$73 causes time decay; best entered after a failed rally.
Iron Condor	Moderate-Strong	GEX positive AND IV > 70% (high). Sell $62/$60P x $75/$77C 5/1.	Earnings event within DTE widens range.
Calendar / Diagonal	Strong	Reverse Put Calendar: Sell 5/1 $60 Put (IV 73.0%), Buy 4/17 $60 Put (IV 61.7%). Bet on pin above $60 and vol differential collapse.	Spot drops sharply below $60, hurting short gamma position.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate	Buy Jan 2027 $70 Call (~$14), sell monthly $80 calls against it. Capital intensive; aligns with multi-week bullish MP drift.	Time decay on long leg if stock stagnates; high IV on long entry.

Top Plays

Bull Put Spread (45+ DTE)

Sell 5/15 $60 Put, Buy 5/15 $55 Put

Capitalizes on the high IV, positive GEX pinning, and the structural $50-$60 put floor. The 43 DTE provides a buffer through near-term pin volatility and the 4/29 earnings event, collecting rich premium while defined risk is anchored below key support.

Credit: $1.40-$1.80

Max loss: $3.60

BE: $58.60

Mgmt: Close at 70% max profit. Exit if spot closes below $60 (short strike). Roll down to $55/$50 if challenged.

Patient, defined-risk traders bullish on the multi-week pinning thesis and upward MP drift.

Reverse Put Calendar

Sell 5/1 $60 Put, Buy 4/17 $60 Put

Directly exploits the ~11 vol-point differential in term structure (sell 73% IV, buy 62% IV) and the pinning regime. Profits if HOOD stays above $60 through April expiry and the vol spread collapses. The extra time on the short leg (29 DTE vs 15 DTE) improves theta harvest versus a weekly.

Credit: $0.80-$1.20

Max loss: Unlimited (short put risk below $60 + spread width)

BE: Complex; depends on vol change and spot. Ideal: spot ~$60+ at April expiry with vol differential narrowed.

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% of max credit. Exit if spot closes <$58. Roll short put down if challenged.

Volatility traders comfortable with negative gamma who believe $60 support will hold through April.

Iron Condor

Sell 5/1 $62/$60 Put Spread & $75/$77 Call Spread

Benefits from positive GEX (mean-reverting), high IV (premium selling), and the defined expected move range ($57.60-$80.20). Wings are placed at the 1-month EM bounds and key levels ($60 support, $75 below OI wall). Better than a weekly condor as it provides time for the pin to work and withstands earnings volatility.

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.90

BE: 60.90 / 76.10

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Adjust if spot approaches either short strike (roll threatened wing out).

Range-bound premium sellers seeking defined risk in a high-vol, pinning environment.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot dips to tag $65 (near 1w EM mid) and bounces → Enter Bull Put Spread: Sell 5/1 $65/$60 put spread.

IFIf spot rallies to test $73 (3/27 MP) and stalls for 1 hour → Enter Iron Condor: Sell 5/1 $62/$60P x $75/$77C.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes below $60 (gamma flip) → Exit all short put positions (put spreads, calendars).

EXITIf spot closes above $77 (above 1m EM high and into OI wall) → Exit all short call positions (condor wings, covered calls).

Tactical Summary

Thesis: A multi-week pinning battle between positive GEX (mean reversion) and bearish flow, with a structural upward drift in max pain. Invalidation: A sustained break below $60 shifts regime to bearish trending. The regime favors selling rich premium (puts for pin believers, calendars for vol structure, condors for range-bound) with defined risk. Top plays: 1) 45+ DTE Bull Put Spread for patient pin believers, 2) Reverse Put Calendar for vol traders, 3) 1-month Iron Condor for range-bound premium sellers.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.