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HOOD

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Close $86.85EOD only

Max Pain

$75.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.98

3.4% from close

Price Gap

-11.85

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.65

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HOOD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 16, 2026 close

HOOD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias: pinning gamma and net dealer long GEX +149M with bullish flow support a continued lift toward 95–101 in the next 1–2 weeks; downside capped until heavy put clusters near $75/$78 exert pull if breached.

Confidence:

8 / 10

High base confidence plus GEX/flow alignment and VIX supportive; modest haircut for spot distance from major pain.

Supports: Dealer +149M GEX; bullish flow; pinning gamma near current range; VIX ~17 supportive of risk-on positioning.
Conflicts: Max pain cluster well below spot (~$75–78) could reassert if volatility or selling spikes; gamma flip far below.

📌Pinning gamma with dealers long GEX favors stability near 95 if market remains bid

⚠️Concentrated put OI at $75–78 — large downside if pin breaks

📈Price action within 1w guardrails $84.66–$96.84 — breakout above favors 95–101 target

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV vs typical; elevated premia reflecting recent moves and event sensitivity.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning—dealer long GEX supporting spot; gamma flip ~65 well below spot.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net bullish premium flow and buy-side demand driving dealer positive exposures.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above most recent max pain levels (75–78), reducing immediate pin but keeping upside pressure.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained dealer positioning and bullish flow create multi-week tilt unless volatility surge drives spot toward concentrated puts

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$84.66$96.84

Likely trade inside $84.66–$96.84; upside favored if SPX/QQQ remain bid

Next 2 weeks

$79.90$101.60

Extension to 95–101 if pinning holds and no volatility shock

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $75 (2026-04-17); $78 (2026-04-24); $75 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails: 1w $84.66/$96.84

Support: $79.90

Resistance: $95.00 · $101.60

Gamma flip: ~$65.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,798 (28.4% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins: $75 (04/17), $78 (04/24), $75 (05/01). 1w guardrails $84.66/$96.84. Support ~79.9. Resist 95.0, 101.6. Gamma flip ~65.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+149.0M

DEX: +63.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$65 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,798 (28.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer GEX +$149.0M; dex +63.2M shares; gamma flip ~ $65 (put OI concentration ~15,798, 28.4% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX baseline — elevated single-name premia make selling premium costly but justify hedged long exposure.

Term structure: Term structure shows elevated near-term IV with event kinks into weekly expiries; 1–3 week expiries richest.

Skew: Put-heavy skew with concentrated strikes near $75–78; opportunity: sell high-premium calendar or call spreads while hedging tail risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Total premium notional ≈ $158.5M (positive = premium paid into market makers); skewed to calls; P/C vol ratio 0.33 suggests overall paid-call flow (net inflow to sellers).

Directional prints: 39.8 call 95 OTM 2026-04-17 — Very large Apr17 95 call block (105k vol, 16.6k OI). Aggressor flag unknown—could be buyer, seller, or dealer positioning; also implies potential dealer gamma exposure if sold. 55.4 put 90 OTM 2026-04-24 — Apr24 90 put spike (4.6k vol, OI 146, vol/OI 31.7) — suggests targeted put buying or protective hedging (seller/buyer side not confirmed). 55.3 put 92 ITM 2026-04-24 — Apr24 92 put (3.5k vol, OI 120, vol/OI 28.9) — cluster with 90 strike indicating concentrated short-dated put demand; aggressor unknown.

Unusual: 39.8 call 95 OTM 2026-04-17 — Extremely large short-dated call print; aggressor not flagged—may represent buyer, seller, or dealer gamma exposure into expiry. 55.4 put 90 OTM 2026-04-24 — High vol/OI put print notable for concentration and elevated IV vs nearby expiries. 55.3 put 92 ITM 2026-04-24 — Adjacent put strikes form a cluster, signaling focused downside hedging or directional pressure; trade side unconfirmed.

Risks & Catalysts

!Volatility spike driving spot toward $75–78 max pain

!Broad market reversal removing dealer support

!Unexpected company-specific news widening IV and breaking pin

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-04-24 $80.00/$76.00 put spread Why now: Market shows bullish dealer gamma and paid-call flow; sell puts below support to collect premium with limited risk; avoid spanning next earnings.	IV spike around earnings or breach of $78-$75 put clusters. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (52%).
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-08 $105.00/$110.00 call spread Why now: Bullish flow, dealer long GEX and large call prints suggest upside into 95–101; defined-risk limits drawdown if IV rips.	IV spike around earnings or broad market reversal.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-08 $82.00/$74.00 put spread Why now: Market shows paid-call flow and dealer gamma supportive of higher spot; sell downside premium while capping risk.	Sharp gap-down to heavy put clusters (~75/78) or post-earnings IV jump.
Cash-secured put	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-08 $84.00 cash-secured put Why now: Targeted entry near lower strikes aligns with dealer-supported lift; use cash-secured puts to buy if breached.	Landing assignment if stock gaps and broad market reverses; IV expansion increases short leg risk.

Top Plays

May bull call spread (105/110)

Buy 2026-05-08 $105.00/$110.00 call spread

Long May 8 105/110 call spread to express directional bullishness with capped loss if IV spikes.

Why this play: Highest asymmetric upside capture vs defined risk given dealer long GEX and large call prints pointing to 95–101 lift.

Debit: $0.62-$0.75

Max loss: $0.75

BE: $105.75

Mgmt: Enter near 0.62–0.75; trim or close into sustained push above 110 or if spot breaks below 80/invalidation.

Bullish, defined-risk traders seeking leverage without assignment.

May put credit spread (82/74)

Sell 2026-05-08 $82.00/$74.00 put spread

Sell May 8 82/74 put spread to monetize muted near-term downside risk with finite liability.

Why this play: Collects premium below expected pin range; aligns with paid-call flow and dealer support while limiting downside.

Credit: $1.48-$1.81

Max loss: $6.19

BE: $80.19

Mgmt: Target mid-entry 1.48–1.81; tighten or buy back if spot breaches 79.9 or put-heavy IV surges.

Income traders comfortable with moderate margin and multi-week horizon.

Cash-secured 84 put (May)

Sell 2026-05-08 $84.00 cash-secured put

Sell May 8 $84 cash-secured put to potentially buy at a discount with premium buffer.

Why this play: Direct way to acquire stock near support while collecting premium; consistent with bullish-to-neutral 1–2 week view.

Credit: $2.90-$3.55

Max loss: $80.45

BE: $80.45

Mgmt: Enter within 2.90–3.55; roll or hedge if spot nears invalidation or IV spikes before earnings.

Buy-and-hold traders wanting stock allocation if assigned.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF HOOD > 95 and call spread mid 0.62-0.75 → THEN buy May-08 105/110 bull call spread (s1). Size = risk of max loss = 0.5% of portfolio; position = floor((0.005*PortfolioValue)/(spread width*100))*1 contract. Target exit into sustained push >110; stop-loss: close if price <101.6 for two 15m bars.

IFIF HOOD > 79.9 and May-08 82/74 put credit mid 1.48-1.81 AND market breadth/flow supportive (no large sell prints) → THEN sell May-08 82/74 put credit spread (s2). Priority = s2 over s3 when premium in range and assignment probability low. Max loss = 6.19 per spread; position size = max portfolio risk 0.5%. Buy back if spot <79.9 or spread mid widens >30%.

IFIF HOOD between 80 and 84 AND May-08 84 put mid 2.90-3.55 OR s2 premium <1.48 or market shows elevated assignment risk → THEN sell cash-secured May-08 84 put (s3) only if s2 not taken. Cash-secured size = 100 shares per contract; cap capital per contract = 84*100. Assignment handling: if assigned, buy 100 shares and immediately (a) set stop at 78.5 and (b) sell covered call 1 strike OTM for 30–45 DTE or roll puts out 1 month if wanting to avoid shares.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF spot breaches 79.9 OR IV rises >30% vs entry IV → THEN tighten/hedge: immediately buy back s2/s3; for s1 reduce size by 50% and/or buy May-08 78/82 put spread (debit) sized to cap additional loss to 0.5% portfolio. If IV spike only (>30%) and spot >79.9, reduce open directional exposure 50%.

Exit Triggers

EXITIF HOOD >110 or sustained move above 101.6 resistance (two 15m closes) → THEN close/trim bullish call spread (s1) and take profits; exit remaining directional income positions incrementally (25% at 101.6, remaining at 110).

Tactical Summary

Bullish multi-week tilt into 95–101. Use defined-risk s1 plus income s2 OR s3 (exclusive: s2 preferred when premium/assignment profile fits; s3 only if s2 unavailable). Size each trade to cap single-trade loss ~0.5% portfolio. Close or hedge decisively on 79.9 breach or IV +30% move (buy protective put spread or liquidate income legs).

Read the Directional analysis for HOOD for 2026-04-17. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.