thetaOwl
HomeOptionsHOODReports

HOOD

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Close $76.75EOD only
Max Pain
$78.00
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.31
4.3% from close
Price Gap
+1.25
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
41
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.70
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HOOD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 13, 2026 close
HOOD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias given dealer long gamma ($101.5M GEX), bullish flow, and spot above $78 max pain. High vol supports premium selling but gamma pinning near $78-82 caps near-term. Override confidence to 8.0 due to high IV decay risk and gamma flip at $70.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 gamma pinning, -0.5 spot 3.5% above MP, +1 VIX 17 supportive. Override accounts for high vol decay risks not fully captured.
Supports: Dealer long gamma, bullish flow, SPY/QQQ up, VIX moderate
Conflicts: High vol regime, spot above MP, gamma flip at $70
📈Bullish flow + dealer long gamma $101.5M → structural bid
🔒Gamma pinning $78 near-term; 2d range $78.13-83.26
⚠️High vol (IV rich vs VIX) risks theta decay; flip at $70

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol: IV elevated vs VIX 17.26, typical for fintech post-earnings or event. Premium expensive for long vol.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning: GEX +$101.5M, positive gamma near spot. Concentrated put OI at $70 creates downside flip risk.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish: net premium positive, call buying dominating. P/C ratio low.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Above: spot $80.8 vs Max Pain $78, 3.5% above. Typical for bullish regimes but reduces pin strength.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — High vol suggests event-driven but structural dealer gamma and bullish flow extend bias beyond 1 week.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$78.13$83.26
Gamma pin $78-83; spot near resistance $82; break above targets $83.26
Next 1 week
$74.57$86.83
Structural dealer support; range $74.57-86.83; bias toward top half
Next 2 weeks
$72.72$88.67
Vol decay may cap upside; gamma flip at $70 if selloff

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $78 (2026-05-15); $77 (2026-05-22); $77 (2026-05-29)
EM guardrails: 2d $78.13/$83.26; 1w $74.57/$86.83
Support: $78.00 · $75.00 · $72.72
Resistance: $82.00 · $88.67
Gamma flip: ~$70.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 18,750 (13.3% below spot)
Structural: Support: $78 (max pain/mp), $75 (prior consolidation), $72.72 (2w low). Resistance: $82 (short gamma), $86.83 (1w high), $88.67 (2w high). Gamma flip at $70.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+101.5M

DEX: +51.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$70 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 18,750 (13.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer long gamma $101.5M (GEX), DEX long 51.1M shares. Strong positive gamma supporting dips to $78. Put concentration at $70 provides hedge.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 17.26: HOOD IV > 60% likely, elevated vs market. Premium selling attractive if vol mean-reverts.

Term structure: Contango: front-month highest, backwardation in back months. Event kink near weekly expiries.

Skew: Put skew elevated at $70. Opportunity: short put spreads at $70-75 to collect premium with flip protection.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium of $22.2M with put/call volume ratio 0.33 indicates strong bullish flow.

Directional prints: 62.4 call 85 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 6.7x, IV 62%; likely bought as bullish bet, aligns with net call premium.

Unusual: 59 put 82 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 10.6x, elevated; either bought as protection or sold for premium; preferred bought given high volume. 277 put 110 ITM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 3.3x, IV 277% extreme; likely bought for tail risk hedge; deep ITM, may be protective. 429.9 put 130 ITM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 2.8x, IV 430% extreme; similar tail hedge; very far ITM, perhaps closing or rolling.

Risks & Catalysts

!High vol regime could accelerate sell-off; gamma flip at $70 triggers dealer hedging.
!Spot 3.5% above MP reduces pinning; bearish flow reversal possible.
!Rich IV vs VIX increases theta decay risk for long positions.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-18 $80.00/$90.00 call spread
Why now: Net call premium and bullish flow support upward drift; spread limits cost and risk.
IV decay and range-bound price could limit gains; max loss is net debit.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-06-12 $71.00/$65.00 put spread
Why now: High IV supports premium selling; near-term bullish lean and dealer long gamma limit downside.
Unexpected sell-off below short put strike leads to max loss; gamma flip at $70.
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-06-26 $88.00 call / sell 2026-06-26 $69.00 put
Why now: Strong bullish flow and net call premium; risk reversal captures upside with limited downside cost.
Unlimited upside risk on short put if sold naked; hedging offsets but short put assignment risk. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.; short_put: Wide spread (53%).

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-18 $80.00/$90.00 call spread
Buy $80/$90 call spread to capture upside drift with defined risk.
Why this play: Matches bullish bias, limits cost and risk, good liquidity.
Debit: $3.17-$3.88
Max loss: $3.88
BE: $83.88
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $78; take profit near $90 or 2:1 gain.
Traders seeking bullish exposure with limited capital at risk.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-12 $71.00/$65.00 put spread
Sell $71/$65 put spread to collect premium on bullish/neutral view.
Why this play: High IV supports premium selling; dealer gamma limits downside.
Credit: $0.84-$1.02
Max loss: $4.98
BE: $69.98
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if stock drops below $78 invalidation.
Traders who prefer income strategies with bullish tilt.
#3
Bullish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-06-26 $88.00 call / sell 2026-06-26 $69.00 put
Buy $88 call, sell $69 put for cheap upside exposure.
Why this play: Captures upside with limited cost, but liquidity is poor.
Debit: $1.50-$1.84
Max loss: $69.00
BE: $69.00
Mgmt: Monitor gamma flip at $70; roll or close if volatility spikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.; short_put: Wide spread (53%).
Aggressive traders willing to accept short put risk for leverage.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf HOOD holds above $78 support with bullish flow, → Enter Bull Call Spread: Buy 2026-06-18 $80/$90 call spread.
IFIf HOOD holds above $78 and IV stays high, → Enter Put Credit Spread: Sell 2026-06-12 $71/$65 put spread.
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf HOOD rallies to $82 resistance, → Take profit on Bull Call Spread or close Put Credit Spread at 50% max gain.
Exit Triggers
EXITIf HOOD breaks below $78 invalidation level, → Exit all bullish positions (close call spread, buy back put spread).

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias: support $78 (max pain), resistance $82. High IV favors put credit spread (sell $71/$65). Bull call spread ($80/$90) for upside. Risk: break below $78 invalidates; gamma flip at $70 accelerates selling. 76 days to earnings; trade small.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.