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HOOD

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Close $108.15EOD only
Max Pain
$97.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.35
7.7% from close
Price Gap
-11.15
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.68
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HOOD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
HOOD Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

HOOD earnings on 7/29, 37 days out. Bullish flow with strong call bias, but high IV and gap risk to max pain.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.8% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Net $59.6M call premium, 80% beat rate, but spot far from max pain pins.
🟢Bullish flow with $59.6M net premium, but beware pin risk to $99 (7/26).
⚠️80% beat rate historically, but 37 days out leaves room for vol crush.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (37 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (4d): ±$6.98 (6.6%)
  • 2026-07-02 (10d): ±$9.95 (9.4%)
  • 2026-07-10 (18d): ±$12.35 (11.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Normal upward slope across near-term expirations, elevated relative to historical.

Crush estimate: Expected post-earnings IV crush ~30-40% based on prior events.

Skew: Slight call skew from high call volume and OI ratios (0.40 vol, 0.65 OI).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves roughly inline with implied, but with upside bias on beats.

Directional bias: Bullish: 80% beat rate and strong call flow suggest continued upside.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 1w $95.76/$115.66
2Max pain pins: $99 (2026-06-26); $88 (2026-07-02); $90 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual 7/26 $95 Put (13.3x vol/OI) and 8/2 $112 Call (8.1x).

Hedging downside but aggressive upside bets near earnings.

Large $120 calls for 7/26 (25k vol) and $112 calls (9.8k vol) for 8/2.

Speculative call buying targeting gamma squeeze around event.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $110.00/$115.00 call spread
Debit: $1.67-$2.04
Max loss: $2.04
Max gain: $2.96
BE: $112.04
Trigger: Exit if spot breaches $99 invalidation. Take profit near $115 or manage theta decay 1-2 weeks post-earnings.
Best aligns with bullish bias (80% beat rate, strong call flow) while limiting IV crush risk. Defined risk and upside potential.
Outperforms: Buy $110/$115 call spread expiring 8/21 (post-earnings). Captures upside with capped loss.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-07-10 $110.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $110.00 call
Debit: $5.31-$6.49
Max loss: $6.49
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if spot drops below $99 invalidation. Take profit when near-term vol crushes or around 5-10% gain.
Profits from normal upward term structure and vol decay; aligns with bullish bias via back-month long call.
Outperforms: Sell 7/10 $110 call, buy 8/21 $110 call. Benefits from faster near-term theta decay and stable long vol.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $100.00/$90.00 put wing and $120.00/$130.00 call wing
Credit: $3.81-$4.66
Max loss: $5.34
Max gain: $4.66
BE: 95.34 / 124.66
Trigger: Manage gamma risk near expiration; adjust wings if spot moves to $100 or $120. Exit if IV spikes sharply.
Capitalizes on high IV with defined wings, suitable for range-bound expectations, but less aligned with bullish bias.
Outperforms: Sell $100/$90 put wing and $120/$130 call wing for 7/17. Profit if spot stays between $100 and $120.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Long strangle
Buy 2026-07-31 $99.00 put + buy $110.00 call
Debit: $13.18-$16.11
Max loss: $16.11
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 82.89 / 126.11
Lower premium outlay; suitable for expected outsized move with undefined direction.
Outperforms: Cheaper than straddle; benefit from large move with OTM options.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Max pain at $99 (7/26) vs spot ~$105.8: pin risk and potential downward pressure.
!High VIX (17.3) amplifies volatility; gap moves possible.

What to Watch

?Unusual print activity; large $95 puts vs $112 calls for 7/26 and 8/2.
?Gamma flip from put OI lack; call OI wall at $120-$130.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.