thetaOwl

HOOD

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Close $75.92EOD only
Max Pain
$77.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.13
2.8% from close
Price Gap
+1.08
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
8
Low premium
P/C OI
0.67
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HOOD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
HOOD Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

HOOD earnings 2026-07-29, 69d out. High historical beat rate (80%). IV elevated but no near-term catalyst; flow mixed with put-heavy unusuals.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.4% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: High IV but no immediate trigger; gamma pinning near $77; watch for spot direction toward $76-$80 range.
📈80% beat rate historically supports bullish drift into earnings.
⚠️VIX at 17 moderate; high IV yet 69 days to catalyst risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$70.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,367 (7.8% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (69 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (1d): ±$2.13 (2.8%)
  • 2026-05-29 (8d): ±$4.99 (6.6%)
  • 2026-06-05 (15d): ±$7.00 (9.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Contango: 1d ±2.8%, 8d ±6.6%, 15d ±9.2%.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV crush typical ~50%.

Skew: Put skew elevated on near-dated expirations; OTM puts rich.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available.

Directional bias: Slight bullish bias from 80% beat rate.

Key Levels

1$70.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $73.79/$78.05; 1w $70.92/$80.91
3Max pain pins: $77 (2026-05-22); $76 (2026-05-29); $76 (2026-06-05)

Flow Highlights

Large call volume on $79 5/29 (4202 vs OI 722) and $78 5/29 (11210 vs OI 5470).

Bullish positioning near resistance; possible upside speculation.

Large put volume on $68 5/29 (4841 vs OI 951) and $75 5/22 (13370 vs OI 6016).

Downside hedging; put walls at $68 and $75 suggest support levels.

Strategies

Iron Condor on HOOD
Sell 2026-06-05 $70.00/$66.00 put wing and $80.00/$85.00 call wing
Credit: $1.65-$2.02
Max loss: $2.98
Max gain: $2.02
BE: 67.98 / 82.02
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings.
Best fit: high IV, no catalyst, contango, range expected.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put and call wings to capture premium decay.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma pinning near $77 max pain may cap short-term moves.
!Unusual put activity on upside strikes ($90 put) suggests tail hedging.

What to Watch

?Spot price relative to $76-$78 range.
?Open interest changes near $80 call wall and $70 put floor.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.