thetaOwl

HOOD

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Close $93.47EOD only
Max Pain
$99.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.16
3.4% from close
Price Gap
+5.53
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
20
Low premium
P/C OI
0.68
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Upside lean
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HOOD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
HOOD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias driven by strong dealer gamma support ($95 max pain, $90 gamma flip) and bullish flow. Spot above MP pinning near $95. High vol regime supports option selling. Short-term upside to $100 resistance, but gamma flip at $90 is key risk.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 GEX positive -0.5 spot 3.9% from MP +0.5 VIX 18 = 8.0
Supports: GEX +72.3M, flow bullish, spot above MP, VIX moderate (18)
Conflicts: SPY/QQQ down, spot above MP may suppress upside, high vol regime
🟢GEX +72.3M strongly bullish, gamma flip ~$90
Max pain $95, spot above creates pinning incentive
⚠️Vol high vs recent range, caution for buyers

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol regime: IV elevated relative to typical range, supporting premium selling
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning regime: strong dealer long gamma, flip at ~$90 (8.8% below spot), supports mean reversion
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish flow: net premium positive, put/call ratio leaning calls
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above MP ($95), pinning pressure upward near expiration
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Key expiries (6/26 max pain, 7/2, 7/10) with dealer gamma pinning; near-term catalysts dominate

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$91.84$105.54
Support $91.84, resistance $105.54; pinning at $95
Next 2 weeks
$88.77$108.62
Range expands $88.77-$108.62; gamma flip risk at $90

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $95 (2026-06-26); $90 (2026-07-02); $93 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 1w $91.84/$105.54
Support: $95.00 · $90.00 · $88.77
Resistance: $100.00 · $108.62
Gamma flip: ~$90.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,229 (8.8% below spot)
Structural: Max pain $95 (6/26), support $90 (gamma flip), resistance $100, 1w range $91.84-$105.54

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+72.3M

DEX: +48.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$90 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,229 (8.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$72.3M, DEX +48.9M shares, gamma flip ~$90 (put OI 14,229)

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Rich vs VIX ~18; elevated IV percentile suggests selling preferred

Term structure: Near-term elevated, backwardation after earnings; 2w implied ~40%

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider call spreads or short puts for premium capture

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium of $35M with put/call volume ratio 0.45 indicates strong bullish flow.

Directional prints: 23.2 call 98 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 16.5k vs OI 1.2k (14x), low IV 23%, aggressive call buying; likely opened for bullish bet. 44.9 call 97 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 17.6k vs OI 1.5k (12x), moderate IV 45%, strong call buying; likely opened for upside.

Unusual: 105.4 call 96 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 12.3k vs OI 1.5k (8.4x), extremely high IV 105%, large positioning; possible buy or sell. 65.7 put 93 OTM 2026-07-31 — Vol 1.2k vs OI 0.1k (10x), elevated IV 66%, put buying for downside protection.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $90 accelerates selloff
!Broader market weakness (SPY -0.72%) may drag
!Vol high regime limits upside option gains

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-31 $88.00/$75.00 put spread
Why now: Gamma flip at $90 provides downside buffer; selling put spread collects premium with defined risk.
If stock breaks below $90, gamma flip may accelerate losses; spread caps downside.
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-31 $96.00/$114.00 call spread
Why now: Flow shows aggressive call buying; bull call spread captures upside with limited cost and defined risk.
Time decay hurts if stock stays flat; max profit capped at $100. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (73%).
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $105.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $80.00 put
Why now: Dealer gamma at $90 provides downside support; risk reversal offers premium-neutral upside exposure.
If stock breaks below $90, short put becomes deep ITM; unlimited downside risk on put leg.
Call diagonalWeak
Sell 2026-07-31 $116.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $105.00 call
Why now: IV term structure is steep; calendar benefits from time decay of short leg and potential upside move.
Risk of sharp upside move capping gains; requires falling IV to profit. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (62%).

Top Plays

#1
Defined-Risk Put Spread
Sell 2026-07-31 $88.00/$75.00 put spread
Sell put spread to collect premium, benefiting from time decay and gamma support.
Why this play: Strong gamma support at $90 buffers downside; collects premium with defined risk.
Credit: $2.36-$2.88
Max loss: $10.12
BE: $85.12
Mgmt: Monitor gamma flip; close if spot breaches $95.
Conservative bullish traders seeking income.
#2
Premium-Neutral Upside
Buy 2026-08-21 $105.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $80.00 put
Sell put to finance call, capturing upside with gamma protection.
Why this play: Dealer gamma supports short put; zero-cost upside exposure.
Debit: $4.64-$5.67
Max loss: $80.00
BE: $80.00
Mgmt: Roll short put if gamma weakens; take profit on call.
Aggressive bullish traders.
#3
Capped-Risk Bull Call
Buy 2026-07-31 $96.00/$114.00 call spread
Buy call spread for upside with limited cost.
Why this play: Aggressive call buying flow; defined risk but liquidity low.
Debit: $5.79-$7.07
Max loss: $7.07
BE: $103.07
Mgmt: Consider wider spreads; exit if invalidation breached. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (73%).
Traders accepting low liquidity.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFHOOD holds above $95 max pain supportSell 2026-07-31 $88/$75 put spread for $2.88 credit
IFHOOD pulls back to $90 gamma flipBuy 2026-08-21 $105 call / sell $80 put for near-zero cost
Adjustment Triggers
ADJHOOD drops to $90 gamma flipRoll put spread strikes lower or close
Exit Triggers
EXITHOOD closes below $95Close put credit spread to limit loss

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with gamma support at $90 and max pain $95. High vol supports option selling. Favor defined-risk put credit spread for income or premium-neutral risk reversal for upside. Key risk: gamma flip below $90. Manage accordingly.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.