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HOOD

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Close $96.71EOD only

Max Pain

$85.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.55

4.7% from close

Price Gap

-11.71

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.66

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HOOD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 16, 2026 close

HOOD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias driven by strong dealer gamma ($97.1M) and bullish flow, with pinning support at max pain. Spot above MP (23.8%) is a risk. Short-term upside within guardrails (101.16-109.23) favored.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; -1 spot 23.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

Supports: GEX +$97.1M, bullish flow, VIX 18 moderate, max pain pinning near term
Conflicts: Spot far from MP (23.8%), negative market context (SPY -1.25%), high vol regime

🟢Dealer gamma near record high $97.1M, strongly pinning price

⚠️Spot $23.8% above max pain $85, risk of mean reversion

📈Bullish flow and positive GEX support near-term upside

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated with VIX 18.44, typical for high-vol regime, reflecting event risk and uncertainty.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Dealer gamma extremely positive ($+97.1M), indicating strong pinning and stabilization near current levels.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium flow bullish, consistent with call buying and dealer hedging upward.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot at $101.16-$109.23 range, above max pain $85-89, suggesting call-driven upside but vulnerability to pin.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term expiration cycle (Jun18, Jun26, Jul2) with concentrated max pain and high gamma, making this a short-lived setup.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$101.16$109.23

Dealer gamma pinning and max pain at $85 support immediate upside to $109.23

Next 1 week

$95.75$114.65

Resistance at $114.65, but gamma decay may reduce pinning; watch market context

Next 2 weeks

$93.12$117.27

Break below $93.12 could accelerate downside; max pain distant at $85

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $85 (2026-06-18); $89 (2026-06-26); $85 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $101.16/$109.23; 1w $95.75/$114.65

Support: $93.12

Resistance: $110.00 · $117.27

Structural: Max pain pins: $85 (Jun18), $89 (Jun26), $85 (Jul2). EM guardrails: 2d $101.16/$109.23; 1w $95.75/$114.65. Support: $93.12 (structural). Resistance: $110 (near-term), $117.27 (2w high). Gamma flip: N/A.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+97.1M

DEX: +67.3M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$97.1M (strongly positive), DEX +67.3M shares, gamma flip N/A. Dealers short gamma at higher strikes, long gamma near spot, pinning price.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is elevated relative to VIX, reflecting high implied volatility typical for this ticker. VIX at 18.44 suggests moderate broader fear but HOOD's IV is rich, indicating event risk premium.

Term structure: Steep contango with front-month elevated due to weekly expirations. Kinks at Jun26 and Jul2 expiries, aligning with max pain pins.

Skew: Put skew elevated, especially at strikes below $95, reflecting downside protection demand. Opportunity: sell put spreads at $85 for premium capture given strong gamma support.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $289.4M; P/C vol ratio 0.42 bullish.

Directional prints: 67.3 call 109 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 16245 vs OI 377 (43x); aggressive call buying, likely bought, bullish. 65.8 call 107 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 15649 vs OI 776 (20x); heavy call buying, bullish. 66.3 call 108 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 15256 vs OI 742 (20.6x); call accumulation, bullish.

Unusual: 66.7 put 101 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 60x; unusual put activity, possibly hedging or bearish. 72.7 call 113 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 53.7x; aggressive out-of-money call buying, very bullish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot 23.8% above max pain increases mean-reversion risk if dealer gamma fades.

!Negative broader market (SPY -1.25%) could overwhelm localized pinning.

!High IV regime implies potential for large moves if pin breaks.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Strong	Buy 2026-07-02 $105.00/$115.00 call spread Why now: Bull call spread captures upside with defined risk. Delta around 0.55/0.30 fits guardrails. Near-term expiry avoids earnings uncertainty.	Spot reverses below 103; max loss limited to debit paid.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-02 $97.00/$92.00 put spread Why now: Collect premium at strikes within guardrail range; dealer gamma supports price pin. Near expiry for theta decay.	If spot breaks below 101, losses capped but max loss sizeable. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-02 $105.00 call / sell 2026-07-02 $97.00 put Why now: Risk reversal cheapens call purchase via put sale. Short put strike within guardrails. Near-term expiry limits time decay on long leg.	Unlimited downside on short put if spot plummets; margin requirements. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-02 $105.00/$115.00 call spread

105/115 call spread with delta 0.55/0.30.

Why this play: Liquidity and defined risk best fit bullish flow.

Debit: $3.14-$3.84

Max loss: $3.84

BE: $108.84

Mgmt: Exit if spot <93.12; profit target 50%.

Risk-controlled bullish traders.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-02 $97.00/$92.00 put spread

Sell 97/92 put spread for theta.

Why this play: Premium near support, but illiquid.

Credit: $1.10-$1.34

Max loss: $3.66

BE: $95.66

Mgmt: Close if spot breaks 97. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.

Income with neutral bias.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-07-02 $105.00 call / sell 2026-07-02 $97.00 put

Buy 105 call, sell 97 put.

Why this play: Cheapest upside, high risk, low liquidity.

Debit: $3.20-$3.91

Max loss: $97.00

BE: $97.00

Mgmt: Monitor short put; adjust if drop. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.

High risk tolerance.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot holds above 93.12 support and within 101.16-109.23 guardrails → Enter 2026-07-02 105/115 bull call spread

Adjustment Triggers

ADJSpot reaches 110 resistance → Take 50% profit on 105/115 bull call spread

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot breaks below 93.12 invalidation level → Close all bullish positions (exit bull call spread)

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias within 101.16-109.23 guardrails, supported by dealer gamma. Favor 105/115 bull call spread for defined risk. Exit if spot <93.12. Resistance 110, support 93.12. High IV regime demands tight stops.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.