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HOOD

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Close $97.19EOD only
Max Pain
$100.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.92
5.1% from close
Price Gap
+2.81
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
21
Low premium
P/C OI
0.66
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HOOD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
HOOD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

HOOD has a moderately bullish bias near-term with spot below MP but supported by dealer long gamma and pinning near $90. Expect bounce potential towards $93-96 range this week. Range-bound with upside lean.

Confidence:
4.5 / 10
Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contrarian; +1 dealer pinning supports; -1 spot far from MP; +0.5 moderate VIX. Net 4.5 (moderately bullish but cautious).
Supports: Dealer long gamma (+$21.3M GEX), positive DEX, gamma flip at $90, pinning near $99 max pain for June 26.
Conflicts: Spot below MP, high IV, mixed flow, resistance at $99 and $100.
🛡️Gamma flip at $90 provides strong support, limiting downside.
📊Spot 5.6% below MP, but mean reversion likely upward due to dealer hedging.
⚠️High vol and mixed flow increase uncertainty; wait for confirmation.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV is elevated relative to typical range, consistent with VIX 19 and HOOD's high vol regime.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Gamma is pinning with $21.3M positive GEX; flip at ~$90, close to spot.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Flow is mixed with no clear directional bias; put/call ratio balanced.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot is below MP ($99) by 5.6%, creating downward pull, but gamma support may slow decay.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Price ranges extend to 2 weeks, with structural support/resistance beyond event dates; gamma flip and dealer positioning imply multi-week range.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$90.32$96.63
Supported at $90, potential bounce towards $93.
Next 1 week
$85.95$101.00
Range-bound with upside bias near $90 support; resistance at $96.
Next 2 weeks
$83.20$103.75
Wide range $83-104; reversion to MP near $93 likely.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $99 (2026-06-26); $90 (2026-07-02); $93 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 2d $90.32/$96.63; 1w $85.95/$101.00
Support: $90.00 · $83.20
Resistance: $99.00 · $100.00 · $103.75
Gamma flip: ~$90.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,130 (3.7% below spot)
Structural: Support $90 (gamma flip), $83.20 (2w low). Resistance $99 (max pain June 26), $100, $103.75 (2w high).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+21.3M

DEX: +47.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$90 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,130 (3.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers are long gamma ($+21.3M GEX) with positive DEX (+47.1M shares), providing support and pinning near $90. Flip risk below $90.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX 19, indicating rich premium; cautious on long vol.

Term structure: Term structure is steep with kinks at June 26 expiry and July 10; near-term IV higher.

Skew: Put skew is elevated; consider put spreads for downside or call spreads for bounce, but avoid naked vol.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$1.53M (net selling) with call volume dominating, indicating bearish positioning via call sales.

Directional prints: 55.3 call 94 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 13.5: heavy new buying in OTM call, bullish speculation, but net selling pressure may imply sell orders. 65.3 call 98 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 11.5: aggressive OTM call buying, though net premium negative suggests possible sell-to-close or hedging. 54.6 call 95 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 8348, OI 2109: largest volume, but lower ratio; mixed signals, likely bought by retail.

Unusual: 67.8 put 93 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 7.2: unusual put activity, possibly protective hedging against downside off $93. 54.2 call 96 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 7.2: high relative OI, speculative call buying near expiration. 71.3 put 85 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 5.0: deep OTM put, high IV; could be crash hedge or sell order.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gap risk if spot breaks below $90 gamma flip.
!Vol expansion if market selloff intensifies.
!Mixed flow could lead to erratic moves.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-31 $96.00/$101.00 call spread
Why now: Bullish bias with support near $90; limited downside.
Max loss is debit paid; underperformance if spot fails to rally. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (72%).
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-31 $78.00/$77.00 put spread
Why now: Dealer gamma support at $90; selling puts well below.
Loss if spot drops below short strike; defined risk. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (122%).; long_put: Wide spread (100%).
Long callModerate
Buy 2026-07-31 $105.00 call
Why now: Bullish with convexity; manageable theta decay.
Full premium loss if spot moves against.
Call diagonalModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-10 $105.00 call / buy 2026-07-31 $102.00 call
Why now: Range-bound short term, bullish longer term; term structure favorable.
Sharp move beyond short strike causes loss. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (77%).

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-31 $96.00/$101.00 call spread
Buy $96/$101 call spread for July 31, expressing upside to $93-96 range.
Why this play: Best aligns with bullish bias and support near $90, limited downside, max gain 3.02 vs max loss 1.98.
Debit: $1.62-$1.98
Max loss: $1.98
BE: $97.98
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $90 invalidation; target take-profit near $101 or 50% of max gain. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (72%).
Traders seeking defined-risk bullish exposure.
#2
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-10 $105.00 call / buy 2026-07-31 $102.00 call
Sell near-term $105 call, buy later $102 call for theta decay and upside.
Why this play: Exploits short-term neutral and longer-term bullish view; term structure favorable.
Debit: $3.28-$4.00
Max loss: $4.00
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Adjust short leg if spot nears $105 early; roll out if needed. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (77%).
Traders expecting near-term range and eventual breakout.
#3
Long Call
Buy 2026-07-31 $105.00 call
Buy $105 call for July 31, betting on bullish momentum beyond $96.
Why this play: Unlimited upside with convexity; liquidity pass true but higher cost.
Debit: $3.85-$4.70
Max loss: $4.70
BE: $109.70
Mgmt: Set stop-loss at 50% premium loss; consider rolling down if spot fails.
Aggressive traders willing to risk premium for upside leverage.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot holds above $90.5 and rebounds toward $93, then enter bull call spread (buy $96/$101 call spread for July 31). → Buy 2026-07-31 $96.00/$101.00 call spread near entry range $1.62-$1.98.
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf spot reaches $99, then take partial profits on bull call spread or adjust calendar call short leg. → Close 50% of bull call spread if max pain at $99; or roll short $105 call out.
Exit Triggers
EXITIf spot breaks below $90, then exit all bullish positions. → Close bull call spread, long call, and calendar call diag for loss.

Tactical Summary

HOOD bullish near $90 support, target $93-96. Use bull call spread as primary entry. Adjust near $99 resistance; exit below $90 gamma flip.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.