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HOOD

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Close $93.19EOD only

Max Pain

$81.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.70

7.2% from close

Price Gap

-12.19

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.62

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HOOD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

HOOD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with pinning dynamics near $84; positive GEX and flow align, but spot 16.8% above MP and resistance at $100/$105 warrant caution. Favor upside above $100 with defined risk.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Strong GEX/flow alignment (+2), positive gamma pinning (+1), low VIX at 16 (+1) drive high confidence; offset by spot distance from MP (-1).

Supports: Positive GEX (+$96.6M), bullish flow, low VIX, strong SPY/QQQ gains
Conflicts: Spot far above MP ($84), resistance $100/$105, gamma flip at $70, IV rich

📌Max pain $84 with heavy OI; positive gamma reinforces pinning

⚠️Spot 16.8% above MP creates unwind risk if momentum fades

💰GEX +$96.6M & bullish flow strong; IV rich for sellers

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol: IV elevated above normal range, driven by recent price swings and event risk near June expiry.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: Positive gamma from heavy OI at $84; gamma flip risk at $70, 28.7% below spot.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish: Net call premium dominant, P/C ratio skewed calls; dealer hedging supports upside.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Above: Spot $84 (6/18 expiry) with 16.8% premium; pinning tension but distance risks mean reversion.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term expiry (June 18) and concentrated dealer positioning warrant event-specific focus.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$92.74$103.51

EM guardrails $92.74/$103.51; spot above MP but resistance at $100/$105.

Next 2 weeks

$87.12$109.12

Range $87.12-$109.12; support at $87 (gamma flip), resistance at $105-$109.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $84 (2026-06-18); $84 (2026-06-26); $80 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $92.74/$103.51

Support: $87.12

Resistance: $100.00 · $105.00 · $109.12

Gamma flip: ~$70.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,626 (28.7% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins: $84 (6/18), $84 (6/26), $80 (7/2). EM guardrails 2d: $92.74/$103.51. Support $87.12; resistance $100, $105, $109.12. Gamma flip ~$70.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+96.6M

DEX: +56.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$70 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,626 (28.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$96.6M, DEX +56.7M shares. Gamma flip at ~$70. Positive gamma supports pinning but flip risk high if spot drops.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX 16, indicating rich premium for sellers; options overpriced relative to realized vol.

Term structure: Contango with event kink near June 18 expiry; shorter-dated IV higher due to pinning uncertainty.

Skew: Put skew elevated from downside protection demand; sell upside calls above $105 while buying puts for hedge if bearish.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $115M positive, P/C volume ratio 0.36 (call-heavy).

Directional prints: 72.1 call 108 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 12.3, low OI; OTM call, likely opening bought (bullish). 69.7 call 106 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 10.4, low OI; OTM call, likely opening bought (bullish). 62.4 call 103 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 5.1, OTM call, bullish bias.

Unusual: 65.3 put 98 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 27, extremely high; OTM put; possibly bearish hedge or sold for premium. 86.7 call 140 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 4.6, far OTM call; lottery-style buy. 61.4 put 90 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol 13940, largest volume; OTM put; defensive or bearish positioning.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot 16.8% above MP, increasing unwind risk if momentum stalls.

!Gamma flip at $70 could accelerate sell-off if breached.

!Resistance at $100 and $105 may cap upside in the near term.

!IV rich: long options expensive; time decay accelerates post-expiry.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $100.00/$105.00 call spread Why now: Spot above MP, positive GEX, call flow; resistance at 100/105, cap upside with spread	Upside capped at 105; max loss if below 100 at expiry
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-08-21 $100.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $90.00 put Why now: Call-heavy flow, bullish bias; short put at support level $90	Uncapped downside if stock drops below 90; but margin call risk
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-08-21 $90.00/$85.00 put spread Why now: Support near 90, positive GEX, low put open interest; premium harvest	Max loss $1; short strike tested if drop below 90
Call diagonal	Conditional	Sell 2026-07-24 $105.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $100.00 call Why now: Earnings vol premium; near-term high IV, back-month upside	Assignment risk if stock above 105 before 07-24; gamma risk

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $100.00/$105.00 call spread

Buy $100/$105 call spread for earnings run-up. Max gain $2.86, loss capped at $2.14.

Why this play: Best risk-reward with defined risk, aligns with bullish bias and resistance at $100/$105. Spot above MP but capped upside.

Debit: $1.75-$2.14

Max loss: $2.14

BE: $102.14

Mgmt: Exit near $105 or at 50% of max gain; stop if spot breaks $87.

Traders seeking defined risk, bullish with a cap.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-08-21 $90.00/$85.00 put spread

Sell $90/$85 put spread, collect $1.67-$2.04 credit. Max loss $2.96.

Why this play: Harvest premium at support $90, low put flow. Suitable for bullish bias with limited downside.

Credit: $1.67-$2.04

Max loss: $2.96

BE: $87.96

Mgmt: Close at 50% of max gain or if spot nears $90.

Income-oriented traders expecting support hold.

Call Diagonal

Sell 2026-07-24 $105.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $100.00 call

Sell 7/24 $105 call, buy 8/21 $100 call. Max loss $5.77.

Why this play: Capture earnings IV crush and upside; premium from short near-term call, long back-month.

Debit: $4.72-$5.77

Max loss: $5.77

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Roll short call if breached; exit before earnings.

Advanced traders exploiting vol and theta decay.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot holds above $87.12 support and below $100 resistance → Enter HOOD_01 bull call spread at $1.75-$2.14

IFSpot holds above $90 support → Enter HOOD_03 put credit spread at $1.67-$2.04 credit

Adjustment Triggers

ADJSpot approaches $105 resistance → Close HOOD_01 bull call spread at $2.86 max gain or roll if held

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot breaks below $87.12 → Exit all bullish positions (HOOD_01, HOOD_03, HOOD_04)

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias into earnings with pinning near $84; positive GEX and flow. Spot 16.8% above MP, resistance at $100/$105. Favor defined risk bull call spreads or put credit spreads. Invalidation at $87.12.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.