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HOOD

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Close $105.71EOD only
Max Pain
$99.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.97
6.6% from close
Price Gap
-6.71
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
19
Low premium
P/C OI
0.65
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HOOD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
HOOD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias: positive dealer gamma ($68.7M), bullish flow, pinning near $100 max pain. Headwinds: spot 3.2% above MP, broad market weakness (QQQ -3.29%, SPY -1.45%). Confidence base 8.0 maintained.

Confidence:
8 / 10
GEX/flow alignment (+2), GEX pinning (+1), spot-MP distance (-0.5), VIX level (+0.5). Base 5.0 totals 8.0.
Supports: Large positive GEX ($68.7M), bullish flow, VIX supportive (19.5), gamma pinning near $100.
Conflicts: Spot above MP by 3.2%, QQQ -3.29%, SPY -1.45%.
🛡️Massive positive gamma at $100 creates strong pinning magnet for June 26 expiry.
📈Bullish flow and dealer gamma align, supporting upside drift.
⚠️Spot 3.2% above max pain reduces but does not eliminate pin strength.
🔄Tech weakness (QQQ -3.29%) conflicts with bullish thesis.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV high vs VIX (19.5) and historical, likely >30% due to event risk around expiries.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive gamma $68.7M creates significant pinning effect toward max pain $100.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish flow: net call premium accumulation skewed toward buying, supporting positive delta.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot 3.2% above max pain ($100), bullish sentiment but reduced pinning intensity.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Key expiries (Jun 26, Jul 2, Jul 10) drive event-specific gamma dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$97.30$109.20
Positive gamma pin at $100 supports convergence.
Next 1 week
$94.10$112.40
Bullish flow and dealer gamma support upper guardrails.
Next 2 weeks
$91.45$115.05
Structural positioning and vol environment favor upward drift.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $100 (2026-06-26); $90 (2026-07-02); $92 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 2d $97.30/$109.20; 1w $94.10/$112.40
Support: $100.00 · $91.45
Resistance: $105.00 · $110.00 · $115.05
Structural: Max Pain: $100 (Jun26), $90 (Jul2), $92 (Jul10). EM Guardrails: 2d $97.30/$109.20, 1w $94.10/$112.40. Support: $100, $91.45. Resistance: $105, $110, $115.05. Gamma flip: none currently (no meaningful put OI below 30% of spot).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+68.7M

DEX: +50.9M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX: +$68.7M (large positive gamma, pinning near $100). DEX: +50.9M shares (long delta, bullish).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV rich vs VIX (19.5) and sector, >30%, reflecting event premium. Elevated vol supports premium selling but also indicates risk.

Term structure: Slightly contango, flat near term with kink at Jun 26 expiry. Event premium decays quickly after.

Skew: Put skew elevated. Aligned with bullish bias: consider call spreads to capture directional move while limiting vol risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $30.9M positive, put/call vol ratio 0.56, OI ratio 0.66, strong net call buying.

Directional prints:

Unusual: 103.1 call 200 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 4.3x, tiny size. Likely bought OTM call, speculative upside bet. 65.4 put 105 ITM 2026-11-20 — Vol/OI 3.4x. Likely bought ITM put, bearish or hedge. 74.5 put 95 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 2.5x, large vol 5954. Likely bought OTM put, bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Broad market selloff (SPY/QQQ) could overwhelm gamma support.
!Spot drifting significantly below $91.45 could accumulate new put OI and flip gamma negative.
!Earnings or macro volatility could break range and cause delta unwinding.
!Sudden increase in put open interest below spot could lead to gamma flip.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-31 $100.00/$116.00 call spread
Why now: Defined risk debit spread to capture upside through earnings.
Broad market selloff could overwhelm gamma support; theta decay if flat.
Put credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-31 $95.00/$82.00 put spread
Why now: Positive dealer gamma supports market; sell put spread below support.
Sharp selloff below short strike; tail risk from macro. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (88%).
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-07-31 $106.00 call / sell 2026-07-31 $91.00 put
Why now: Call flow and gamma support; risk reversal for leveraged upside.
Spot crash below put strike; margin requirements. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-31 $100.00/$116.00 call spread
Debit spread to capture upside through earnings with capped risk.
Why this play: Best liquidity and defined risk; aligns with bullish thesis and positive gamma.
Debit: $5.31-$6.49
Max loss: $6.49
BE: $106.49
Mgmt: Exit at 50% gain or hold to expiration; adjust if spot drops below $100.
Traders wanting defined risk and high probability of success.
#2
Bullish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-07-31 $106.00 call / sell 2026-07-31 $91.00 put
Combines long call and short put for leveraged upside with unlimited upside potential.
Why this play: Leveraged upside play exploiting call flow and gamma support.
Debit: $3.56-$4.35
Max loss: $91.00
BE: $91.00
Mgmt: Monitor spot near $91 put strike; consider rolling if support breaks. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Aggressive traders seeking high leverage and willing to accept downside risk.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-31 $95.00/$82.00 put spread
Sells put spread below support to collect premium, relying on dealer gamma.
Why this play: Less aligned due to market weakness; lower priority despite gamma support.
Credit: $2.45-$3.00
Max loss: $10.00
BE: $92.00
Mgmt: Close early if spot approaches $95; adjust strikes to manage risk. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (88%).
Income-focused traders in stable conditions; less suitable given current headwinds.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFHOOD spot price holds above $100 support. → Enter Bull Call Spread: Buy 2026-07-31 $100.00/$116.00 call spread.
IFHOOD spot price breaks above $105 resistance. → Enter Bullish Risk Reversal: Buy 2026-07-31 $106.00 call and sell 2026-07-31 $91.00 put.
Exit Triggers
EXITHOOD spot price drops below $91.45 support. → Close Bullish Risk Reversal: Sell $106 call, buy back $91 put.
EXITHOOD spot price closes below $100 for two consecutive days. → Exit Bull Call Spread for defined loss management.

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with positive dealer gamma ($68.7M) and max pain $100. Spot 3.2% above MP. Support $100, $91.45; resistance $105, $110. Headwinds from broad market weakness (SPY -1.45%, QQQ -3.29%). Preferred: Bull Call Spread above $100. Aggressive: Risk Reversal above $105. Exit Risk Reversal if spot breaks $91.45. Avoid Put Credit Spread due to low liquidity and market conditions.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.