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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $417.12EOD only

Max Pain

$410.00

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.04

1.2% from close

Price Gap

-7.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.56

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

GLD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-slight-bullish with upside magnet into short-dated pins near $440–$455; Confidence: 5.5/10. Strongest supports: large positive GEX $+294.7M concentrated at $440/$445/$450 (pinning), flat multi-expiry max pain ~ $433, and market risk-on (SPY +1.22%, VIX 18.36) reducing tail demand; conflict: net premium negative $-68.5M (selling into strength) and mixed flow.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Base 5.5 retained; + GEX pinning and low VIX support range bias; - net negative premium and mixed flow temper conviction.

Supports: GEX concentrations at $440/$445/$450, flat MP cluster ~$433 across expirations, low VIX 18.36 supporting premium decay
Conflicts: Net premium -$68.5M (net selling protection / call buying), large distant call OI wall $495-$595 could cap upside, mixed flow at higher strikes

📌GEX pinning centered: +$12.1M at $455, +$11.9M at $440, +$4.1M at $445 — dealers likely hedge into those levels

🔻Immediate guardrails: 2d EM $440.34/$449.83; 1w EM $433.84/$456.34 — use these for wing placement

⚖️IV term is low near-dated (1d 19.1%, 3d 24.1%) vs avg IV 32.9% — favors shorting very short-dated vol and calendars

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol: Normal — spot ATM short-term IV depressed (1d 19.1%, 3d 24.1%) vs avg IV 32.9%; short-dated premium cheap, longer-dated ~27%

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma: Pinning — large positive GEX $+294.7M with concentrated NTM GEX at $440/$445/$450 implies mean-reversion toward those pins as dealers hedge by buying dips/selling rallies

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow: Mixed — P/C vol 0.29, P/C OI 0.60 with net premium -$68.5M (institutional selling protection / buying calls); top premium flow shows large call premium at $475 and big put premium at higher strikes but overall mixed directional pressure

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above MP: spot $445.09 vs MP cluster ~$433 — slight distance above pin but still within 1w EM; dealers likely sell upside above pins and buy on small dips toward $440–$445

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and flat MP persist across expirations (MP ~ $433 for many near-term and months), GEX sign and concentration stable across next two expirations — supports 30–45 DTE preference with weeklies for tactical trades.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$440.34$449.83

Dealer hedging around $440/$445 likely to slow moves; break below $440.34 would open faster sell-off

Next 1 week

$433.84$456.34

Max pain ~$433 and GEX at $455/$450 create both down- and up-magnets; sustained move above $456.34 invalidates range bias

Next 2 weeks

$424.01$466.16

Break above $466.16 (2-week EM) with accompanying net premium flip would signal trend continuation.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $433 (2026-04-15); $434 (2026-04-17); $435 (2026-04-20)

EM guardrails: 2d $440.34/$449.83; 1w $433.84/$456.34

Support: $445.00 · $440.00 · $433.00

Resistance: $455.00 · $450.00 · $475.00

Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,743 (19.1% below spot)

Structural: Structural layers: heavy call OI wall $495–$595 caps cyclical upside; put floor $335–$360 marks long-term downside protection — use for tail hedges or LEAPS diagonals.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+294.7M

DEX: +138.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,743 (19.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM positive gamma concentrated at $440 (+$11.9M), $445 (+$4.1M) and $455 (+$12.1M); if spot falls 2% (~$436), dealers buy to hedge which stabilizes dips toward $433; if spot rises 2% (~$454), dealers sell into strength around $455 creating resistance and compressing rallies.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: ATM short-dated IV 1d 19.1% / 3d 24.1% vs VIX 18.36 and Avg IV 32.9% — near-dated vol is cheap relative to longer tails.

Term structure: Backwardated at immediate expiries then flattens ~27% from 17d→94d; clear short-dated trough (19–25%) creating sell-the-expiry edge.

Skew: Notable call-side flow/OTM call demand at $475 and $500; mispriced calendar opportunity: sell 5/29 IV 27.0% and buy 4/17 IV 24.1% (reverse calendar) — sell higher-IV long-dated leg.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$68.5M (net selling protection / call buying), P/C vol 0.29 indicates call-heavy volume; top premium flow shows concentrated call premium at $475 and strong net call at $440 ($21.5M).

Directional prints: 27.4 call 444 ITM 2026-04-24 — High vol print 10,168 vs OI 118 (86x) on 4/24 $444C — aggressive call accumulation; could be directional buy or structured dealer sell; consistent with call-heavy net premium 28.6 call 440 ITM 2026-04-24 — 11,204 vols vs OI 676 (16.6x) on 4/24 $440C — dealer flow likely selling calls into this size; supports pin at $440

Unusual: 26.1 call 448 OTM 2026-04-22 — 4/22 $448C vol 1,592 vs OI 113 (14.1x) — short-dated call interest aligned with dealer pinning at $455/$450

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip deep below ~$360 would convert dealer hedging to short-gamma accelerating declines (structural tail).

!Immediate expiries (4/15–4/20) have concentrated max pain ~$433–$435 — expiry pin risk can cause quick mean reversion.

!Net premium negative and concentrated call flow at higher strikes could produce asymmetric upside squeeze if macro catalysts push gold suddenly higher.

!Macro shocks (risk-off, USD moves, rate prints) can overwhelm GEX and widen EM beyond listed bounds.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy GLD shares at market (spot $445.09)	Exposure to sharp drawdowns below $433/EM lower bounds
Short stock	Weak	Avoid initiating naked short given strong dealer positive GEX and pinning	Dealer buy-the-dip hedging can create painful mean-reversion losses
Covered call	Moderate	Buy GLD + Sell 2026-04-22 $455 call	Called away if rally >$455; limited upside vs pin proximity
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $440/$435 put spread	Break below $433 (MP) and EM expansion increases max loss
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-29 $475 call (30+ DTE)	Time-decay and IV compression; expensive if rally fails to materialize
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-17 $445/$435 bear put spread	Pin/positive GEX reduces probability of large immediate downside; limited edge vs cost
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $440/$435 put x $455/$465 call iron condor	IV spike or expiry pin release outside wings causes large loss (breach of $433 or >$466)
Calendar / diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-29 $445 (IV ~27.0%) and buy 2026-04-17 $445 (IV ~24.1%) — reverse calendar (sold longer-dated higher-IV leg)	Reverse calendar sells longer-dated exposure; vulnerable to term-structure shifts and big moves before short leg expiry
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy GLD 2026-12-18 $445 LEAP + sell 2026-04-17 $455 call (covered call leg)	Carry cost and assignment risk; protects long with time but exposed to near-term pin moves
Butterfly / broken-wing condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-04-17 $445/$440/$455 broken-wing (debit or small credit adjustable)	Complex management if spot breaches $433 or rallies past $455

Top Plays

Short-dated Put Spread (tactical)

Sell 2026-04-17 $440/$435 put spread

Short-dated spread capitalizes on pin/GEX buying into $440–$445 and cheap near-term IV; fits multi-week thesis with tactical weekly overlay.

Credit: $0.90-$1.10

Max loss: $4.10

BE: $439.10

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot < $433 or VIX spikes >25

Defined-risk premium collectors wanting high probability short-term income

4/17 Iron Condor (balanced range)

Sell 2026-04-17 $440/$435 put x $455/$465 call iron condor

Uses EM and GEX pins as natural wings; short-dated IV low so collect reasonable premium with dealer pinning supporting range.

Credit: $1.40-$1.90

Max loss: $8.60

BE: $435 - $465 edges (breakevens at sold strikes +/- credit)

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or if spot crosses $433 or >$466 with widening IV

Accounts comfortable with defined risk and managing wings into expiry

Reverse Calendar 4/17 vs 5/29 (30+ DTE)

Sell 2026-05-29 $445 (IV ~27.0%) / Buy 2026-04-17 $445 (IV ~24.1%) — reverse calendar, sell higher-IV longer-dated leg

Selling higher-IV long-dated 5/29 and buying cheaper near-term 4/17 exploits term-structure and GEX pinning while collecting net credit; longer-dated sold leg provides theta on mid-term exposure.

Credit: $0.20-$0.60

Max loss: Loss profile depends on width and underlying moves (debit on long leg if structured); treat as margin exposure

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Buy back sold 5/29 leg if spot moves >+$11 (above $456) or <$433; tighten if net credit declines >50%

Traders who want asymmetric theta with limited short-dated gamma; suited for multi-week thesis

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $440 and holds 30 min → Sell 2026-04-17 $440/$435 put spread

IFIf spot stays between $440–$450 into 12:00ET with VIX <20 → Sell 2026-04-17 iron condor $440/$435 x $455/$465

IFIf 4/24 $444C volume spikes >5k within 1h (fresh buys) → Buy 2026-05-29 $475 call (single-leg) for breakout exposure

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot moves to $455 and 4/17 short calls hit 70% max loss → Roll short 4/17 $455 call to 4/24 $455 or widen call wing to $465

ADJIf spot falls below $433 (MP) → Close all short premium positions and consider buying 2026-05-29 $435/$415 put spread as hedge

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX >25 and spot <$433 → Exit all short premium trades immediately

EXITIf iron condor returns 50–70% of max profit before expiry → Buy to close the iron condor and preserve gains

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: short-dated short premium around the pins ($440–$455) with 30–45 DTE reverse-calendar exposure to exploit term-structure; invalidation below $433 (max pain and lower EM) which flips dealer behavior; top plays: 4/17 $440/$435 put spread (tactical), 4/17 iron condor $440/$435 x $455/$465 (balanced), 5/29-sold reverse calendar vs 4/17 long $445 (30+ DTE).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.