Home Options GLDReports

GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $411.50EOD only

Max Pain

$420.00

Next expiry May 20, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.43

1.1% from close

Price Gap

+8.50

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.57

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

GLD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

GLD range-bound with slight bullish bias due to dealer long gamma pinning price toward max pain levels across upcoming expirations. Normal vol and mixed flow suggest no strong directional conviction, but proximity to support and rising max pain targets favor gradual drift higher within EM guardrails.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; -1 GEX/flow conflict; +1 positive GEX pinning; +1 spot 0.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18 => 6.5

Supports: Dealer long gamma ($44.3M GEX), max pain pinning near $420, spot 0.6% from MP, rising max pain to $429-430, support at $403.97
Conflicts: Mixed flow, no net directional premium, normal vol offers no edge, resistance at $420 and $430.62

🎯Max pain pin: $420 for May15 expiration, 0.6% from spot, supports neutral/higher drift

📊Gamma support: $44.3M GEX keeps dealers long, price stable near EM guardrails

⚠️Gamma flip risk: ~$360, far below, unlikely near-term

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

VIX at 18.43, vol regime normal for GLD. Premium consistent with typical range.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$44.3M indicates dealer long gamma, pinning price near max pain. Gamma flip ~$360 (13.7% below spot) unlikely near-term.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow with net premium neutral; put/call ratio not extreme. Conflicting signals but no heavy directional skew.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot ~$417, near max pain $420 (0.6% away). At-money implies pinning pressure.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pins on 2026-05-15 ($420), 2026-05-18 ($429), 2026-05-20 ($430) suggest event-specific pinning around these expirations. Normal vol and mixed flow support near-term range-bound bias.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$411.73$422.86

Pinning near $420 max pain; support $411.73, resistance $422.86

Next 1 week

$408.74$425.84

Max pain moving to $429 by May18; dealer gamma supports drift higher

Next 2 weeks

$403.97$430.62

Max pain $430 by May20; resistance $430.62; structural support $403.97

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $420 (2026-05-15); $429 (2026-05-18); $430 (2026-05-20)

EM guardrails: 2d $411.73/$422.86; 1w $408.74/$425.84

Support: $403.97

Resistance: $420.00 · $430.62 · $450.00

Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,926 (13.7% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins: $420 (May15), $429 (May18), $430 (May20). EM guardrails: 2d $411.73/$422.86, 1w $408.74/$425.84. Support $403.97, resistance $420, $430.62, $450. Gamma flip ~$360.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+44.3M

DEX: +112.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,926 (13.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$44.3M (long gamma), DEX +112.2M shares. Gamma flip ~$360 (13.7% below spot). Dealers long gamma, providing stability and pinning near max pain.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: GLD IV inline with VIX at ~18-20%, not rich or cheap relative to macro vol.

Term structure: Term structure upward sloping into expirations, with kinks around max pain dates (May15,18,20). Front-end vol elevated by pin activity.

Skew: Skew neutral; put/call IV balanced. No significant vol arbitrage opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net bearish -$215.8M; put premium dominates despite call-heavy volume (P/C 0.79).

Directional prints: 22.5 call 418 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 29.6x; aggressive call buying; likely bullish directional or vol selling. 23.1 put 418 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 34.8x; paired with call at same strike; possibly hedging or bearish spread.

Unusual: 57 put 330 OTM 2026-05-22 — Extreme vol/OI 37.4x for deep OTM put; speculative tail hedge. 22 call 420 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 33.2x; OTM call buying; speculative bullish or short vol. 22.9 put 419 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 28.8x; ITM put buying; bearish conviction or hedging.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $403.97 support could trigger gamma flip

!Macro risk from VIX spike above 20

!Gold price uncorrelated to equities; safe-haven flows may reverse

!Flow turning bearish could outweigh gamma support

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Strong	Sell 2026-05-29 $408.00/$402.00 put spread Why now: Near-term neutral/bullish environment; support at 403.97; put premium inflated by net bearish flow. Defined-risk premium capture.	Break below 408 strike could flip gamma; gold macro risk.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-29 $426.00/$434.00 call spread Why now: Max pain moving higher; call volume elevated; moderate upside bias on weekly timescale.	Upside capped; time decay negative if price stays flat.
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-29 $426.00 call Why now: Low volatility environment; bullish flow signal from unusual call buying at 418; limited downside via premium paid.	Time decay and theta burn if price stagnates; macro risk from VIX spike.

Top Plays

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-05-29 $408.00/$402.00 put spread

Sell put spread to collect premium with high probability of success given pinning near max pain.

Why this play: Best fit for neutral-to-bullish bias and defined risk; captures premium near strong support.

Credit: $1.39-$1.69

Max loss: $4.31

BE: $406.31

Mgmt: Close if GLD breaks below 403.97; consider rolling if IV expands.

Traders seeking steady income with limited risk and a slight bullish view.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-05-29 $426.00/$434.00 call spread

Buy call spread to benefit from gradual drift higher within expected range.

Why this play: Captures moderate upside with defined risk; aligns with rising max pain and bullish flow signal.

Debit: $1.68-$2.06

Max loss: $2.06

BE: $428.06

Mgmt: Monitor for breach of invalidation level; exit at 75% of max gain or near expiration.

Traders with a moderately bullish outlook and desire for capped risk and gain.

Long Call

Buy 2026-05-29 $426.00 call

Outright call purchase to express directional upside with unlimited profit potential.

Why this play: Higher risk/reward; suitable for aggressive bullish view but less aligned with range-bound thesis.

Debit: $3.53-$4.32

Max loss: $4.32

BE: $430.32

Mgmt: Set stop-loss at 50% premium decay; consider taking profits at key resistance levels.

Traders with high conviction in a strong upward move and tolerance for time decay.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFGLD holds above 403.97 support and put spread credit can be collected within 1.39-1.69. → Sell 2026-05-29 $408/$402 put spread for target credit.

IFGLD trades above 2d EM lower guardrail 411.73 with bullish momentum. → Buy 2026-05-29 $426/$434 call spread for 1.68-2.06.

IFGLD breaks above 420 resistance with volume, confirming bullish breakout. → Buy 2026-05-29 $426 call for 3.53-4.32.

Exit Triggers

EXITGLD closes below 403.97 support, invalidating bullish thesis. → Close all bullish positions immediately.

Tactical Summary

GLD range-bound with slight bullish bias, pinned to rising max pain. Key support 403.97, resistance 420/430.62. Prefer defined-risk put credit spreads near support for premium capture; bull call spreads for upside. Risk break below support triggers gamma flip.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.