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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $432.93EOD only

Max Pain

$431.00

Next expiry May 13, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.68

1.1% from close

Price Gap

-1.93

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.57

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 12, 2026 close

GLD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

GLD near max pain $431 with strong dealer gamma support, suggesting a pinning to expiration. Mixed flow and normal vol keep range-bound bias, but positive gamma and proximity to MP favor neutral-to-slightly-bullish drift into May 13/15 expiry.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.1% from MP; +1 VIX 18. Net 7/10.

Supports: Spot at 431 (max pain); GEX +207.6M positive; VIX 18 moderate
Conflicts: Flow mixed; GEX/flow mismatch

📌Spot pinned at max pain $431 for 13 May expiry

🟢Dealers long gamma (+207.6M) provide bullish tail support near $424

⚠️Mixed flow and low VIX limit upside, range expected $424-437

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

VIX 17.87, normal volatility; GLD IV likely in line

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Dealers net long gamma $207.6M; pinning at $431 max pain

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium with put/call imbalance; no clear directional signal

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot near $431 (max pain) within 0.1%, pin supports

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Gamma pinning near max pain expiry on May 13/15; short-term event focus.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$424.25$436.75

Range $424-437, pin at $431 supports drift up

Next 1 week

$422.32$438.68

Wider range $422-439, gamma flip risk below $360

Next 2 weeks

$413.70$447.30

Support $414; resistance $447-450; flow mixed may push lower

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $431 (2026-05-13); $425 (2026-05-15); $428 (2026-05-18)

EM guardrails: 2d $424.25/$436.75; 1w $422.32/$438.68

Support: $413.70

Resistance: $431.00 · $447.30 · $450.00

Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,902 (16.4% below spot)

Structural: Max pain: $431 (May 13), $425 (May 15), $428 (May 18). EM guardrails: 2d $424.25/$436.75; 1w $422.32/$438.68. Support $413.7; Resistance $431, $447.3, $450. Gamma flip ~$360.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+207.6M

DEX: +117.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,902 (16.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net long gamma $+207.6M; gamma flip at ~$360 based on put OI concentration of 100,902 (16.4% below spot). Positive gamma supports price stability near current levels.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: GLD IV likely in line with VIX 17.87; normal vol regime

Term structure: Assumed contango, nearby expiries elevated due to max pain pinning

Skew: Put skew elevated below $360; no obvious vol structure opportunity given normal vol

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net negative premium (-$171M) with put/call volume ratio 0.80; call volume dominates, suggesting net call selling or mixed positioning.

Directional prints: 10.5 put 432 ITM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 15.4x, 1907 vol, likely bought put; bearish on near-term drop. 23.9 call 433 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol 10908, OI 2285, large call buying; bullish expecting spot >433 by 5/22.

Unusual: 4.5 put 429 OTM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 15.8x, OTM put, low IV; likely bearish hedge. 4.8 call 432 OTM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 14.2x, OTM call, low IV; bullish speculation. 3.4 put 431 ITM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 12.5x, ITM put, low IV; bearish but near ATM.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot breaks above $437 resistance on bullish flow

!Spot drops below $424 support, testing dealer gamma (flip at ~$360)

!Flow turns bearish (net put buying) shifts pin lower

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $414.00/$413.00 put spread Why now: Dealer gamma support and neutral-to-bullish bias; defined-risk premium sale.	Unexpected drop below sold strike.
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $414.00/$413.00 put wing and $431.00/$432.00 call wing Why now: Range-bound thesis, max pain at $431, mixed flow supports pin action.	Breakout beyond wings.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-29 $431.00/$432.00 call spread Why now: Positive dealer gamma and slightly bullish lean; cheap upside defined-risk.	Spot fails to rise, loss of debit.

Top Plays

Neutral Iron Condor

Sell 2026-05-29 $414.00/$413.00 put wing and $431.00/$432.00 call wing

Sell wings around $431 to capture range-bound price action.

Why this play: Aligns with max pain pinning and mixed flow.

Credit: $0.66-$0.80

Max loss: $0.20

BE: 413.20 / 431.80

Mgmt: Exit if stock breaks wings; manage gamma near expiry.

Traders expecting low vol and pinning.

Bullish Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-05-29 $414.00/$413.00 put spread

Sell put spread below spot for defined-risk premium.

Why this play: Leverages dealer gamma support and slight bullish bias.

Credit: $0.18-$0.23

Max loss: $0.77

BE: $413.77

Mgmt: Roll down if support broken; close early on profit.

Slightly bullish premium seekers.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-05-29 $431.00/$432.00 call spread

Buy call spread at max pain for limited-cost upside.

Why this play: Cheap upside if momentum rises, but lower probability.

Debit: $0.47-$0.58

Max loss: $0.58

BE: $431.58

Mgmt: Stop-loss at invalidation level; take profit on target.

Aggressive traders seeking leveraged upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFGLD spot holds above $413.70 and below $431.00 with 2+ days to expiry → Sell the 2026-05-29 $414/$413 put wing and $431/$432 call wing (Iron Condor) for $0.66-$0.80 credit.

IFGLD spot breaks above $431.00 on bullish volume and flow → Buy the 2026-05-29 $431/$432 call spread (Bull Call Spread) for $0.47-$0.58.

Exit Triggers

EXITGLD spot closes below $413.70 support → Exit all positions: close iron condor and bull call spread; do not enter new bullish structures.

Tactical Summary

Neutral to slightly bullish bias anchored at $431 max pain. Initiate iron condor in range, add bull call spread on upside breakout. Exit bullish positions if $413.70 support fails.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.