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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $417.12EOD only

Max Pain

$410.00

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.04

1.2% from close

Price Gap

-7.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.56

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

GLD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral with a slight mean-reversion/upside magnet to $436-$441 (pins at $433–$436). Confidence: 6.5/10. Primary supports: large positive GEX $+227.8M concentrated at $436/$437 adding pinning; MP ladder flat at $433–$436 across expirations; market risk-on (SPY+0.98%, VIX 19.12) reducing tail demand. Conflicts: net premium negative $-222.2M (institutional selling) and mixed flow/low P/C vol (0.37) that can produce directional bursts.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

Supports: GEX pins at $436/$437 and concentrated put OI clusters at $426–$433; flat MP ($433–$436) enforces short-term support.
Conflicts: Net premium -$222.2M and low P/C vol ratio 0.37 suggest institutional put buying elsewhere and one-sided call selling at higher strikes (structural call walls $465+).

📍GEX pin cluster +$3.3M at $436 (0.1% from spot) is the strongest short-term magnet

🧭Max pain flat at $433–$436 across expiries — favors short premium/mean reversion

💨Large OI at $360 put (100,980) marks the gamma flip far below spot (~$360) — accelerant if broken

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV: Avg IV 32.6% but ATM near-term IVs depressed (2d ATM 22.5%, 4d 24.9%) so front-week options look cheap versus longer-dated term (26%+).

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: GEX +$227.8M concentrated at $436/$437 creates dealer hedging that pins spot inside EM guardrails ($428.82–$441.89).

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: Net premium -$222.2M (selling), P/C vol 0.37 and P/C OI 0.57 — institutional flow skewed to selling calls and large OI at distant calls; near-term volume favors call prints but overall mixed.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot $435.36 is effectively at MP levels ($433–$436), reinforcing mean-revert/gravity toward $433–$436.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — MP flat across expirations and concentrated GEX at near-term strikes persists across the next 2 expirations (pins at $436/$437 and $443) indicating a 2–4 week pinning regime; use 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$428.82$441.89

Pinning GEX at $436/$437 and 2d EM $428.82–$441.89; sustained break below $428.8 would flip to bearish.

Next 1 week

$423.86$446.86

Flat MP ($433–$436) and concentrated GEX at $436/$443 keep range narrow; move above $446.9 opens call OI absorption toward $455.

Next 2 weeks

$415.11$455.61

Two-week EM $415.11–$455.61 — breakout above $455 removes dealer hedging cap (GEX smaller) and exposes structural call walls at $465–$595.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $433 (2026-04-13); $434 (2026-04-15); $435 (2026-04-17)

EM guardrails: 2d $428.82/$441.89; 1w $423.86/$446.86

Support: $433.00 · $430.00 · $426.00

Resistance: $441.00 · $445.00 · $455.00

Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,980 (17.3% below spot)

Structural: Structural call OI wall $465–$595 caps rallies; put floor/gamma flip near $360 is the major long-term support/acceleration level for sellers.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+227.8M

DEX: +135.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,980 (17.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large positive NTM GEX concentration at $436 (+$3.3M) and $437 (+$1.6M) creates dealer short-delta that will buy into dips and sell rallies; if spot falls ~2% (~$426) dealers' hedges buy aggressively (dampening downside), if spot rises ~2% (~$444) dealers sell into strength (cap near $441–$445).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Spot ATM IVs front-week 22.5–25.9% vs VIX 19.12 — equity vol context lower but GLD IVs are modestly higher than VIX adjusted for gold-specific flows; overall front-week IV cheap relative to mid-dated (26%+).

Term structure: Upward-sloping after front-week: 2d ATM 22.5% → 18d 26.4% → 32d 26.6%, indicating higher longer-dated demand; near-term IV dislocation (0d 10.2%) reflects expiry pricing.

Skew: Skew: cheap near-week ATM and richer 18–46d strips (~+3–4 vol pts); consider selling mid-dated vol or buying cheap front-week from structural setups.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$222.2M (institutional net selling), P/C vol 0.37 (call-heavy flow on volume), P/C OI 0.57.

Directional prints: 27 call 434 ITM 4/24 — GLD260424C00434000 heavy print Vol=8,063 vs OI=228 (35.4x) — could be large buyer of calls or aggressive assignment/roll; aligns with call-side demand at and above spot. 26.9 call 435 ITM 4/24 — GLD260424C00435000 Vol=4,088 vs OI=381 (10.7x) — fresh interest at ATM into 4/24; interpreted as directional call buying given net premium sell backdrop but could be dealer-structured activity.

Unusual: 11.2 call 435 ITM 4/13 — GLD260413C00435000 4/13 ITM print Vol=4,406 OI=445 (9.9x) priced at IV 11.2% — front-day activity likely hedged/assignment; interpreted as short-dated rolling or delta plays.

Risks & Catalysts

!Pin break below $428.82 removes dealer-buy support and can accelerate to $415 EM lower bound;

!Expiries (4/13–4/20) could compress IV and produce pin release; front-week IV distortion (10.2% 0d) can create sudden option repricing;

!Macro reversal (VIX spike >25 or SPY selloff) would flip regime from mean-revert to trending and blow through $426 support;

!Structural issuer call OI at $465–$595 creates selling that can cap rallies above $455.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy GLD stock at market	Limited upside while dealers cap rallies near $465; exposed to large drawdowns if pin breaks.
Short stock	Weak	Short GLD at market	Positive GEX and pinning make shorting expensive — dealers buy dips.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 4/20 445 call	Call OI and GEX cap above $445; limited upside and assignment risk into pin.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/20 433/428 put spread	Gamma flip <$360 rare but downside to EM lower bound $423.86 if pin fails.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 4/24 445 call	Front-week IV low; paid premium if rally stalls under call OI walls.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 4/20 426/420 put spread	Positive GEX mops up downside; requires break below 426 to realize edge.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/20 433/428 put x 445/455 call iron condor	VIX spike or expiration pin release can widen losses; wings must be sized to expected move.
Calendar / diagonal	Moderate	Sell 5/01 435 call, buy 4/20 435 call (regular calendar since 5/01 IV > 4/20)	Selling the higher-IV longer-dated leg needs positive theta and stable spot; requires managing roll if pin shifts.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-12 435 LEAP call, sell near-term 4/20 445 call (diagonal)	Capital intensive; benefits if mean reversion holds and longer-term vols remain richer.

Top Plays

Short-dated Put Spread (tactical)

Sell 4/20 433/428 put spread

Edge from GEX pinning at $436/$437 and MP $433 — dealers buy dips, giving short put spread edge inside 1-week EM.

Credit: $0.40-$0.65

Max loss: $4.60

BE: $432.60

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot < $428.8 or VIX >25.

Traders wanting defined-risk premium collection

Iron Condor (primary multi-week)

Sell 4/20 433/428 put x 445/455 call iron condor

Uses flat MP ($433–$436) and concentrated GEX to sell both wings; wings sit near EM guardrails and call OI absorption at 455 provides outer resistance.

Credit: $0.55-$1.00

Max loss: $9.45

BE: 433 - credit and 455 + credit (variable)

Mgmt: Take 60% profit; trim or roll if spot < $430 or > $446.

Account managers scaling short premium with defined risk

Multi-week LEAP Diagonal

Buy 2026-12 435 call, sell 5/01 445 call (diagonal)

Buy long-dated exposure at richer term IV while selling mid-dated calls into higher IV to fund position; protects against short-term pin release while retaining upside to structural call wall.

Debit: $2.50-$4.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: Long-call cost minus sold-call credit (varies)

Mgmt: Reduce sold calls if spot>445 or roll out 30–45d; take profits on long leg if long-term thesis breaks.

Longer-term bulls seeking defined carry and reduced theta drain

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $436 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 4/20 433/428 put spread

IFIf spot rallies to $445 with VIX <22 → Sell 4/20 445/455 call spread or establish iron condor wings at 433/428 & 445/455

IFIf spot remains $>433 and IV term (5/01 ATM) > 5 vol pts above 4/20 ATM → Sell the higher-IV 5/01 ATM call and buy 4/20 ATM call — sell 5/01 435, buy 4/20 435

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot drops below $428.82 (2d EM low) → Buy back short put spread and/or roll down puts to 426/421 strikes or close iron condor puts

ADJIf spot rises above $446.86 (1w EM high) → Reduce short calls or roll call wing up to 455/465

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX >25 and spot <$430 → Exit all short premium positions immediately

EXITIf position reaches 60–70% of max profit → Take profit on defined-risk spreads (put spreads, condors)

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: mean-reversion/pinning around $433–$436 supported by GEX +$227.8M; invalidation below $428.82 (2d EM) which would trigger trending downside; regime favors shorting premium (defined-risk) and selling put spreads/condors for multi-week horizon (use 30–45 DTE for core, weeklies for overlays).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.