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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $430.50EOD only

Max Pain

$425.00

Next expiry May 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.24

1.4% from close

Price Gap

-5.50

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.57

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Neutral tilt

Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 13, 2026 close

GLD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

GLD is range-bound with a mild bullish bias from positive GEX pinning price to max pain at $425. Mixed flow and resistance at $442.51 cap upside, while VIX at 17 supports stable vol. Expect consolidation near $425 over the next two days, with broader ranges in the week ahead.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 5 from technical structure; +1 GEX pinning (positive), +1 spot proximity to MP, +1 low VIX (17); -1 mixed flow. Net score 7.

Supports: Positive GEX pinning; spot near MP; low VIX; normal vol regime.
Conflicts: Mixed flow; resistance $442.51 and $450; gamma flip risk below $360.

📌Max pain $425 pinning for 2026-05-15 expiry

🛡️Positive GEX $+179.2M cushions downside

⚠️Gamma flip at ~$360 if downside breaks

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal relative to historical range; VIX at 17 supports steady IV.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime with $+179.2M GEX, strong attractor near $425.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: no clear directional bias from option premiums.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at max pain $425, within 0.5%, reinforcing pinning.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Multiple option expiries (2026-05-15, 18, 20) create near-term pinning dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$422.85$431.56

Range 422.85-431.56; pinning to $425 max pain.

Next 1 week

$417.88$436.53

Range 417.88-436.53; positive GEX supports drift toward upper bound.

Next 2 weeks

$411.91$442.51

Range 411.91-442.51; wider bounds with gamma flip risk below $360.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $425 (2026-05-15); $429 (2026-05-18); $430 (2026-05-20)

EM guardrails: 2d $422.85/$431.56; 1w $417.88/$436.53

Support: $425.00 · $411.91

Resistance: $442.51 · $450.00

Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,887 (15.7% below spot)

Structural: Max pain: $425 (05/15), $429 (05/18), $430 (05/20). EM guardrails: 2d $422.85/$431.56; 1w $417.88/$436.53. Support: $425, $411.91. Resistance: $442.51, $450.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+179.2M

DEX: +114.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,887 (15.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX $+179.2M (positive), DEX +114.5M shares. Gamma flip near $360 (put OI concentration 100,887).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: GLD IV is moderately above VIX (17.26), typical for gold; rich vs VIX but normal for the commodity.

Term structure: Slight contango with event kinks at weekly expiries, reflecting binary risk around max pain.

Skew: Skew is relatively symmetric; no actionable opportunity currently.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Negative $330M net, put/call vol ratio 1.16, net put buying.

Directional prints: 77.9 put 480 ITM 2026-05-15 — 15.7K vol vs OI 4K, ratio 4.0; likely bought for bearish hedge. 54.1 put 465 ITM 2026-05-15 — 10.4K vol vs OI 2.8K, ratio 3.7; heavy put volume. 19.3 put 426 OTM 2026-05-15 — 2.5K vol vs OI 301, ratio 8.4; high relative OTM put buying.

Unusual: 32.1 call 380 ITM 2026-08-21 — 908 vol vs OI 103, ratio 8.8; deep ITM call activity unusual. 19.3 put 426 OTM 2026-05-15 — 2.5K vol vs OI 301, ratio 8.4; extreme relative volume. 20.5 put 428 ITM 2026-05-15 — 2.4K vol vs OI 497, ratio 4.8; elevated near-money put volume.

Risks & Catalysts

!Upward break above $431.56 on macro catalyst (e.g., dollar weakness).

!Downward break through $425 if gold sells off, risking gamma flip below $360.

!Flow shift from mixed to bearish if put volume surges.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $416.00/$408.00 put wing and $442.00/$450.00 call wing Why now: IV stable at 17, GEX pins price to 425, ideal for defined-risk premium sale.	Upside break >431 or downside <420 causes loss.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-06-05 $409.00/$395.00 put spread Why now: Mild bullish lean with max pain at 425 supports selling put spreads.	Sharp selloff below short strike if gold crashes. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Bull call spread	Weak	Buy 2026-06-05 $442.00/$457.00 call spread Why now: Slight bullish bias and low expected volatility favor slow grind higher.	Time decay if range persists; needs upside move. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.

Top Plays

Range-Bound Iron Condor

Sell 2026-05-29 $416.00/$408.00 put wing and $442.00/$450.00 call wing

Sells wings outside expected range, capturing time decay with low vol.

Why this play: Best for neutral bias; max pain at $425 supports defined-risk premium sale with stable IV.

Credit: $2.55-$3.11

Max loss: $4.89

BE: 412.89 / 445.11

Mgmt: Exit at 50% of max gain or adjust if price breaches $416 or $442.

Traders expecting consolidation near $425.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-05 $442.00/$457.00 call spread

Buys upside call spread targeting $457 with defined risk.

Why this play: Leverages mild bullish bias for next week; low IV favors slow upside grind.

Debit: $2.32-$2.83

Max loss: $2.83

BE: $444.83

Mgmt: Close if price falls below $425 or take profit near $450. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.

Traders with slight bullish conviction and risk appetite.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-06-05 $409.00/$395.00 put spread

Sells put spread below support, collecting premium on mild upside.

Why this play: Slightly bullish but liquidity fail and narrow profit zone reduce appeal.

Credit: $1.59-$1.94

Max loss: $12.06

BE: $407.06

Mgmt: Exit immediately if price breaches $425; monitor fill risk. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.

Contrarian bulls willing to accept lower liquidity.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFGLD price holds between $416 and $442 with VIX below 20 → Sell iron condor: sell 05/29 $416/$408 put spread and $442/$450 call spread at mid-market

Adjustment Triggers

ADJGLD price nears $416 or $442 within 10 days to expiry → Roll the tested wing out in time or to a further strike to reduce risk

Exit Triggers

EXITGLD price breaches $416 or $442 → Close iron condor at market; accept max loss if beyond wings

Tactical Summary

GLD range-bound near $425 max pain, mild bullish bias but capped at $442.51. Favor IC for defined-risk premium; exit on breach of $416 (support) or $442 (resistance). Monitor VIX for volatility expansion; keep position size small due to mixed flows.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.