Home Options GLDReports

GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $408.49EOD only

Max Pain

$417.00

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.69

1.4% from close

Price Gap

+8.51

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.54

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 27, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 27, 2026 close

GLD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 10, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term pin toward the $440 area; Confidence: 5.0/10. Primary supports: strong positive GEX (+$258.8M) concentrated at $437–$443, max pain rising to $430 across near expiries, and EM bounds that place $430–$444 as the natural trading band; conflicts: negative net premium flow (-$236.7M) and mixed flow/P-C activity that can push intermittent directional prints.

Confidence:

5 / 10

Base 5.0; +1 for large positive GEX/pinning concentrated at $437–$443; -1 because net premium is negative and flow is mixed (institutional selling into calls elsewhere). No imminent catalyst missing from pre-computed data.

Supports: GEX pin cluster at $437–$443, near-term put OI clusters at $430/$433/$431 and max pain $425→$430 trend
Conflicts: Net premium -$236.7M (call-heavy selling), P/C volume 0.74 and P/C OI 0.56 indicate more call activity; long-dated call walls at $465+ increase asymmetry

📍GEX pinning concentrated at $440 (GEX +$2.2M @440, +$732K @439, +$478K @438) — **pin magnet**

📈EM band 2d $430.58–$443.68 and 1w $427.08–$447.18 — **trade inside this channel**

⚠️Net premium -$236.7M with big premium on high strikes (flows show heavy put premium at cheap strikes but net large call selling elsewhere) — **flow mixed, tail risk on vol spikes**

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV is Normal — Avg IV 32.5% with very low short-dated ATM IV (3d 22.1%, 5d 26.2%, 7d 27.3%) so near-term options are relatively cheap vs longer expiries.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: large positive GEX (+$258.8M) concentrated around spot (NTM GEX entries at $437–$443), which creates mean-reversion hedging that attracts price to the $440 area.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow mixed: net premium -$236.7M (institutional net selling into some strikes), P/C vol 0.74 suggests more call activity intraday; unusual prints show activity on $440 strikes both calls and puts.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $437.13 is above near expirations' max pain ($425→$430) indicating slight upside vs MP but a short-term magnet to $430–$440.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and rising max pain persist across multiple near expiries (MP rising $425→$430 across 20 expirations) and GEX sign stable; prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades, weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$430.58$443.68

Pinning GEX at $437–$443 will magnet price unless a flow-driven impulse breaks EM at $430 or $444.

Next 1 week

$427.08$447.18

Max pain at $430 and concentrated call OI at $440–$445 create resistance; net premium selling can blunt rallies above $447.

Next 2 weeks

$418.81$455.46

Sustained move above $447 with rising flow into calls and failing to find put demand would open the $455 area.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $425 (2026-04-10); $430 (2026-04-13); $430 (2026-04-15)

EM guardrails: 2d $430.58/$443.68; 1w $427.08/$447.18

Support: $430.00 · $425.00 · $418.81

Resistance: $443.00 · $447.18 · $465.00

Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,984 (17.6% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall and long-dated concentration from $465–$595 caps major rallies; structural put floor concentrated at $360 acts as long-term downside magnet for protective positioning.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+258.8M

DEX: +135.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,984 (17.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large positive NTM gamma centered $437–$443 (notable GEX: +$2.2M @440, +$1.2M @443, +$800K @437) → dealers sell delta into rallies and buy into dips which creates a mean-reversion/ pin toward $440; if spot drops ~2% to ≈$428 the dealers will reduce short-delta (buying shares) supporting price; if spot rallies ~+2% to ≈$446 dealers will sell delta (short stock) which will cap upside and re-center price toward the pin.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: ATM IV is below historical highs: very low short-dated IV (3d 22.1%) versus Avg IV 32.5; term structure shows front-end cheapness versus the 30–90d strip (~27–28%).

Term structure: Down-up: IV rises from 3d 22.1% → 7d 27.3% then flattens ~27% through summer — front-end cheap, back-end modestly richer.

Skew: Short-dated ATM IV cheap vs 14–35d (e.g., 3d 22.1% vs 14d 28.0%) — calendar/diagonal opportunities selling 14–35d vs buying 3–7d are reversed (sell higher IV leg). One mispriced vol opportunity: buy 3d/14d calendar where near-term IV is cheap only if you can sell the richer 14d — present differential ~+5.9 vol-pts (14d 28.0% vs 3d 22.1%).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium is negative (-$236.7M) indicating institutionally net long calls (or dealers net sold premium) overall despite GEX pinning.

Directional prints: 23.4 call 440 OTM 2026-04-15 — GLD260415C00440000: Vol 1,223 vs OI 114 (10.7x) — could be buy-to-open calls (directional long) or sell-to-open covered calls; more consistent with short-dated tactical buys given mixed flow. 25.6 put 440 ITM 2026-04-13 — GLD260413P00440000: Vol 1,267 vs OI 180 (7.0x) — could be protective buying or put selling; given net premium negative and pinning, interpretation leans toward protective buying into the pin but both are possible.

Unusual: 64.4 put 505 ITM 2026-04-17 — GLD260417P00505000: Vol 600 vs OI 100 (6x) with very high IV — tail protection or long-dated structured hedges by institutions.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $360 is structural but distant — rapid drop toward $360 would reverse dealer hedging and accelerate downside.

!Pin resolves at near expiries (4/13–4/17): short-dated pin pressure can unwind quickly causing chop.

!Net premium -$236.7M and heavy long-call exposure at high strikes ($465–$595) increases skew and tail risk if risk-off hits.

!Short-dated IV is low (3d 22.1%) — any volatility spike (macro or repositioning) can blow up short-premium trades.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy GLD shares at market	Dealer hedging may cap upside near $443–$447; large drawdown if gamma flip toward $360 long-term.
Short stock	Weak	Short GLD shares into rallies near $443–$447	Positive GEX and dealer buying on dips creates strong mean reversion; short squeezes if flow reverses.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy GLD and sell 2026-05-15 $440 call	Call OI and dealer delta selling cap upside; premium limited while underlying may gap up.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $430/$425 put spread	Invalidated by swift break below EM $430 and rising short-dated IV.
Long calls	Weak	Buy 2026-05-15 $460 call	High theta and premium at longer-dated calls given call wall at $465–$595; expensive directional exposure.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-17 $425/$415 put spread	GEX pinning reduces probability of downside; heaviness in short-dated IV can erode buy price.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 $420/$410 put fly? (use defined wings) x $455/$465 call wings — simplified: Sell 2026-05-15 420/410P and 455/465C	Large gap beyond wings and VIX spike; needs stable range and time to decay.
Calendar / diagonal	Strong	Sell 2026-04-13 (3d) or 4/17 (7d) ATM call/put? — specifically: Sell 2026-04-13 ATM $440 call (3d, IV 22.1) and buy 2026-05-15 $440 call (35d, IV 27.7) → sell lower-IV leg? Follow rule: sell higher-IV leg. Here 35d IV > 3d, so sell 35d and buy 3d would be reverse; instead sell 35d, buy 3d is reverse calendar — to keep with rule: identify vol differential and sell the higher IV leg.	Calendar structure sensitive to front-end IV moves and pin release; poor if near-term IV collapses unexpectedly.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy GLD LEAP (2026-12-18) and sell 2026-05-15 $440 call (covered collar/diagonal)	Carry cost and assignment risk if pinned above sold strike; tail risk on gap moves.

Top Plays

Short-dated put spread (tactical)

Sell 2026-04-17 $430/$425 put spread

Collects premium inside the EM band and against the pin; benefits from dealer mean-reversion and cheap 7d IV (27.3%).

Credit: $0.40-$0.80

Max loss: $5.00

BE: $429.60

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot < $427 or VIX >30.

Defined-risk premium collection; tactical income.

30–45d iron condor (primary multi-week)

Sell 2026-05-15 420/410 put spread and 455/465 call spread (defined risk)

Plays the multi-week pin/range bias — uses higher time premium in 35d wings and GEX pinning to center risk.

Credit: $1.25-$2.50

Max loss: $8.75

BE: 420 + net credit (put side) / 465 - net credit (call side)

Mgmt: Close calls if spot > $447 or puts if spot < $427; take 50–75% profit on premium decay.

Accounts wanting structured income with defined risk over 30–45 DTE.

Diagonal (calendar) vs front-end IV skew play

Sell 2026-05-15 $440 call, buy 2026-04-13 $440 call (reverse calendar: sell higher-IV leg)

Exploits term structure where 35d IV (~27.7%) > 3d IV (22.1%); sells richer longer-dated premium and buys cheap front-end to capture time decay if pin holds.

Credit: $0.75-$1.60

Max loss: Limited to width if structured as spread

BE: Depends on net credit; manage to roll if pin drifts >±$6.

Mgmt: Take profit at 40–60% of max gain; roll sold leg wider if MP shifts above $445.

Traders comfortable managing pin resolution and roll risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $440 and holds 30 minutes within EM band ($430.58–$443.68) → Sell 2026-04-17 $430/$425 put spread

IFIf spot stays between $427 and $447 by end-of-day → Initiate 35d iron condor: sell 2026-05-15 420/410 put and 455/465 call spreads

IFIf 3d IV (2026-04-13 ATM) rises above 25% while 35d IV remains >=27% → Buy 3d ATM call and sell 35d ATM call at $440 (reverse calendar) per setup

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot rallies above $447 (1w EM top) → Trim or buy back short call wings on iron condor and consider rolling sold calls to 455/465 on 35d structure

ADJIf spot falls below $427 (1w EM lower bound) → Buy protection: convert sold $430/$425 put spread to wider put or close and re-establish below $420

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX >30 or front-end IV spikes 5 vol-pts intraday → Close all short premium positions immediately

EXITIf short put spread reaches 60–70% of max profit → Take profits and redeploy into new 30–45d structures

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week mean reversion toward $440 driven by large positive GEX and concentrated NTM gamma; invalidation below $427–$430 (EM/MP breach) that would favor directional downside trades. Regime favors short premium/range trades (put spreads, iron condors, calendars) — Top plays: 7d $430/$425 put spread (tactical), 35d iron condor 420/410/455/465 (primary), and a calendar/diagonal exploiting front-end cheap IV at $440 (skew play).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.