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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $437.13EOD only
Max Pain
$430.00
Next expiry Apr 13, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.55
1.5% from close
Price Gap
-7.13
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
0.56
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 10, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 10, 2026 close
GLD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term pin toward the $440 area; Confidence: 5.0/10. Primary supports: strong positive GEX (+$258.8M) concentrated at $437–$443, max pain rising to $430 across near expiries, and EM bounds that place $430–$444 as the natural trading band; conflicts: negative net premium flow (-$236.7M) and mixed flow/P-C activity that can push intermittent directional prints.

Confidence:
5 / 10
Base 5.0; +1 for large positive GEX/pinning concentrated at $437–$443; -1 because net premium is negative and flow is mixed (institutional selling into calls elsewhere). No imminent catalyst missing from pre-computed data.
Supports: GEX pin cluster at $437–$443, near-term put OI clusters at $430/$433/$431 and max pain $425→$430 trend
Conflicts: Net premium -$236.7M (call-heavy selling), P/C volume 0.74 and P/C OI 0.56 indicate more call activity; long-dated call walls at $465+ increase asymmetry
📍GEX pinning concentrated at $440 (GEX +$2.2M @440, +$732K @439, +$478K @438) — **pin magnet**
📈EM band 2d $430.58–$443.68 and 1w $427.08–$447.18 — **trade inside this channel**
⚠️Net premium -$236.7M with big premium on high strikes (flows show heavy put premium at cheap strikes but net large call selling elsewhere) — **flow mixed, tail risk on vol spikes**

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
IV is Normal — Avg IV 32.5% with very low short-dated ATM IV (3d 22.1%, 5d 26.2%, 7d 27.3%) so near-term options are relatively cheap vs longer expiries.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning: large positive GEX (+$258.8M) concentrated around spot (NTM GEX entries at $437–$443), which creates mean-reversion hedging that attracts price to the $440 area.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Flow mixed: net premium -$236.7M (institutional net selling into some strikes), P/C vol 0.74 suggests more call activity intraday; unusual prints show activity on $440 strikes both calls and puts.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot $437.13 is above near expirations' max pain ($425→$430) indicating slight upside vs MP but a short-term magnet to $430–$440.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and rising max pain persist across multiple near expiries (MP rising $425→$430 across 20 expirations) and GEX sign stable; prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades, weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$430.58$443.68
Pinning GEX at $437–$443 will magnet price unless a flow-driven impulse breaks EM at $430 or $444.
Next 1 week
$427.08$447.18
Max pain at $430 and concentrated call OI at $440–$445 create resistance; net premium selling can blunt rallies above $447.
Next 2 weeks
$418.81$455.46
Sustained move above $447 with rising flow into calls and failing to find put demand would open the $455 area.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $425 (2026-04-10); $430 (2026-04-13); $430 (2026-04-15)
EM guardrails: 2d $430.58/$443.68; 1w $427.08/$447.18
Support: $430.00 · $425.00 · $418.81
Resistance: $443.00 · $447.18 · $465.00
Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,984 (17.6% below spot)
Structural: Call OI wall and long-dated concentration from $465–$595 caps major rallies; structural put floor concentrated at $360 acts as long-term downside magnet for protective positioning.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+258.8M

DEX: +135.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,984 (17.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large positive NTM gamma centered $437–$443 (notable GEX: +$2.2M @440, +$1.2M @443, +$800K @437) → dealers sell delta into rallies and buy into dips which creates a mean-reversion/ pin toward $440; if spot drops ~2% to ≈$428 the dealers will reduce short-delta (buying shares) supporting price; if spot rallies ~+2% to ≈$446 dealers will sell delta (short stock) which will cap upside and re-center price toward the pin.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: ATM IV is below historical highs: very low short-dated IV (3d 22.1%) versus Avg IV 32.5; term structure shows front-end cheapness versus the 30–90d strip (~27–28%).

Term structure: Down-up: IV rises from 3d 22.1% → 7d 27.3% then flattens ~27% through summer — front-end cheap, back-end modestly richer.

Skew: Short-dated ATM IV cheap vs 14–35d (e.g., 3d 22.1% vs 14d 28.0%) — calendar/diagonal opportunities selling 14–35d vs buying 3–7d are reversed (sell higher IV leg). One mispriced vol opportunity: buy 3d/14d calendar where near-term IV is cheap only if you can sell the richer 14d — present differential ~+5.9 vol-pts (14d 28.0% vs 3d 22.1%).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium is negative (-$236.7M) indicating institutionally net long calls (or dealers net sold premium) overall despite GEX pinning.

Directional prints: 23.4 call 440 OTM 2026-04-15 — GLD260415C00440000: Vol 1,223 vs OI 114 (10.7x) — could be buy-to-open calls (directional long) or sell-to-open covered calls; more consistent with short-dated tactical buys given mixed flow. 25.6 put 440 ITM 2026-04-13 — GLD260413P00440000: Vol 1,267 vs OI 180 (7.0x) — could be protective buying or put selling; given net premium negative and pinning, interpretation leans toward protective buying into the pin but both are possible.

Unusual: 64.4 put 505 ITM 2026-04-17 — GLD260417P00505000: Vol 600 vs OI 100 (6x) with very high IV — tail protection or long-dated structured hedges by institutions.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $360 is structural but distant — rapid drop toward $360 would reverse dealer hedging and accelerate downside.
!Pin resolves at near expiries (4/13–4/17): short-dated pin pressure can unwind quickly causing chop.
!Net premium -$236.7M and heavy long-call exposure at high strikes ($465–$595) increases skew and tail risk if risk-off hits.
!Short-dated IV is low (3d 22.1%) — any volatility spike (macro or repositioning) can blow up short-premium trades.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long stockModerate-WeakBuy GLD shares at marketDealer hedging may cap upside near $443–$447; large drawdown if gamma flip toward $360 long-term.
Short stockWeakShort GLD shares into rallies near $443–$447Positive GEX and dealer buying on dips creates strong mean reversion; short squeezes if flow reverses.
Covered callModerateBuy GLD and sell 2026-05-15 $440 callCall OI and dealer delta selling cap upside; premium limited while underlying may gap up.
Cash-secured put / put spreadModerate-StrongSell 2026-04-17 $430/$425 put spreadInvalidated by swift break below EM $430 and rising short-dated IV.
Long callsWeakBuy 2026-05-15 $460 callHigh theta and premium at longer-dated calls given call wall at $465–$595; expensive directional exposure.
Long puts / bear put spreadModerate-WeakBuy 2026-04-17 $425/$415 put spreadGEX pinning reduces probability of downside; heaviness in short-dated IV can erode buy price.
Iron condorModerate-StrongSell 2026-05-15 $420/$410 put fly? (use defined wings) x $455/$465 call wings — simplified: Sell 2026-05-15 420/410P and 455/465CLarge gap beyond wings and VIX spike; needs stable range and time to decay.
Calendar / diagonalStrongSell 2026-04-13 (3d) or 4/17 (7d) ATM call/put? — specifically: Sell 2026-04-13 ATM $440 call (3d, IV 22.1) and buy 2026-05-15 $440 call (35d, IV 27.7) → sell lower-IV leg? Follow rule: sell higher-IV leg. Here 35d IV > 3d, so sell 35d and buy 3d would be reverse; instead **sell 35d, buy 3d** is reverse calendar — to keep with rule: identify vol differential and sell the higher IV leg.Calendar structure sensitive to front-end IV moves and pin release; poor if near-term IV collapses unexpectedly.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonalModerateBuy GLD LEAP (2026-12-18) and sell 2026-05-15 $440 call (covered collar/diagonal)Carry cost and assignment risk if pinned above sold strike; tail risk on gap moves.

Top Plays

#1
Short-dated put spread (tactical)
Sell 2026-04-17 $430/$425 put spread
Collects premium inside the EM band and against the pin; benefits from dealer mean-reversion and cheap 7d IV (27.3%).
Credit: $0.40-$0.80
Max loss: $5.00
BE: $429.60
Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot < $427 or VIX >30.
Defined-risk premium collection; tactical income.
#2
30–45d iron condor (primary multi-week)
Sell 2026-05-15 420/410 put spread and 455/465 call spread (defined risk)
Plays the multi-week pin/range bias — uses higher time premium in 35d wings and GEX pinning to center risk.
Credit: $1.25-$2.50
Max loss: $8.75
BE: 420 + net credit (put side) / 465 - net credit (call side)
Mgmt: Close calls if spot > $447 or puts if spot < $427; take 50–75% profit on premium decay.
Accounts wanting structured income with defined risk over 30–45 DTE.
#3
Diagonal (calendar) vs front-end IV skew play
Sell 2026-05-15 $440 call, buy 2026-04-13 $440 call (reverse calendar: sell higher-IV leg)
Exploits term structure where 35d IV (~27.7%) > 3d IV (22.1%); sells richer longer-dated premium and buys cheap front-end to capture time decay if pin holds.
Credit: $0.75-$1.60
Max loss: Limited to width if structured as spread
BE: Depends on net credit; manage to roll if pin drifts >±$6.
Mgmt: Take profit at 40–60% of max gain; roll sold leg wider if MP shifts above $445.
Traders comfortable managing pin resolution and roll risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot tags $440 and holds 30 minutes within EM band ($430.58–$443.68) → Sell 2026-04-17 $430/$425 put spread
IFIf spot stays between $427 and $447 by end-of-day → Initiate 35d iron condor: sell 2026-05-15 420/410 put and 455/465 call spreads
IFIf 3d IV (2026-04-13 ATM) rises above 25% while 35d IV remains >=27% → Buy 3d ATM call and sell 35d ATM call at $440 (reverse calendar) per setup
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf spot rallies above $447 (1w EM top) → Trim or buy back short call wings on iron condor and consider rolling sold calls to 455/465 on 35d structure
ADJIf spot falls below $427 (1w EM lower bound) → Buy protection: convert sold $430/$425 put spread to wider put or close and re-establish below $420
Exit Triggers
EXITIf VIX >30 or front-end IV spikes 5 vol-pts intraday → Close all short premium positions immediately
EXITIf short put spread reaches 60–70% of max profit → Take profits and redeploy into new 30–45d structures

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week mean reversion toward $440 driven by large positive GEX and concentrated NTM gamma; invalidation below $427–$430 (EM/MP breach) that would favor directional downside trades. Regime favors short premium/range trades (put spreads, iron condors, calendars) — Top plays: 7d $430/$425 put spread (tactical), 35d iron condor 420/410/455/465 (primary), and a calendar/diagonal exploiting front-end cheap IV at $440 (skew play).

Read the Directional analysis for GLD for 2026-04-10. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.