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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $416.99EOD only
Max Pain
$418.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.33
1.0% from close
Price Gap
+1.01
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
5
Low premium
P/C OI
0.58
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
GLD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Gold pinned near $418 max pain with positive dealer gamma; bias slightly bullish but capped at $425 resistance.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 5 adjusted: +1 GEX positive pinning, +1 spot at MP, +1 low VIX, -1 GEX/flow contradict.
Supports: Pinning at $418, positive GEX, low VIX, spot at MP.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, resistance at $418/$425, put OI 13.7% below spot.
📌Spot pinned at $418 MP with positive gamma; range-bound drift likely.
🚧Resistance at $418 and $425 caps upside; break above $425 needed for trend.
⚠️Put OI concentration at $360 remains a distant but material downside risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal volatility relative to typical range, supported by VIX at 16.76.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive $136.9M GEX with gamma flip distant at $360, enabling pinning near $418.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium flow with no clear directional conviction.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot at $418 max pain, within 0.2% of MP, increasing pin probability.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Spot pinned at max pain with positive gamma ahead of monthly OPEX on 2026-05-22.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$412.66$421.31
Pinning at $418; upside limited to $421.31.
Next 1 week
$408.81$425.16
Resistance $425, support $408.81.
Next 2 weeks
$402.89$431.09
Broader range $402.89-$431.09; breakout possible with macro.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $418 (2026-05-22); $416 (2026-05-27); $418 (2026-05-29)
EM guardrails: 2d $412.66/$421.31; 1w $408.81/$425.16
Support: $402.89 · $400.00
Resistance: $418.00 · $425.00 · $431.09
Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,031 (13.7% below spot)
Structural: Max pain $418 (May22), $416 (May27), $418 (May29). Support $402.89, $400. Resistance $418, $425, $431.09. Gamma flip at $360.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+136.9M

DEX: +101.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,031 (13.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: Positive gamma $136.9M with DEX +101.4M shares. Gamma flip at ~$360 based on put OI concentration 13.7% below spot, providing downside support.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: GLD IV likely in line with VIX at 16.76, not rich or cheap.

Term structure: Term structure likely in contango with event kink around monthly expiry.

Skew: Skew flat with no pronounced tail risk; short vol strategies near pin could be viable.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put premium of -$294M with PC vol ratio 1.02 and PC OI ratio 0.58 (call heavy OI).

Directional prints: 41.1 put 490 ITM 2026-06-18 — High vol/OI ratio 7.6, 7644 vol vs 1007 OI. Likely bought for downside protection or directional put; IV elevated at 41.1%. 21.8 put 402 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 7.1, 1328 vol vs 186 OI. OTM put bought as cheap hedge or speculation; IV moderate 21.8%.

Unusual: 41.1 put 490 ITM 2026-06-18 — Most unusual: largest vol and vol/OI 7.6, deep ITM put with IV 41.1%. Could be large hedge or directional bet. 36.7 put 520 ITM 2026-07-17 — High vol 3645, vol/OI 7.3, IV 36.7% on deep ITM put. Significant flow. 19.3 put 413 OTM 2026-05-22 — Expiring tomorrow, 1309 vol vs 311 OI (4.2x), low IV 19.3%. Unusual near-term put volume.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $402.89 support.
!Spike in VIX above 20.
!Gold macro shock (USD strength, rate hike).
!Dealer gamma flip at $360.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-18 $415.00/$425.00 call spread
Why now: Positive dealer gamma, max pain $418, slight upside but resistance at $425. Bull call spread limits cost and risk.
Max loss is debit paid if gold fails to rally or breaks below $402.89 support.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-18 $415.00/$425.00 call spread
Captures limited upside from $415 to $425 with defined risk.
Why this play: Only eligible candidate; bullish bias with resistance at $425.
Debit: $4.18-$5.12
Max loss: $5.12
BE: $420.12
Mgmt: Exit near $425 or if GLD breaks below $402.89.
Traders seeking capped upside with lower premium outlay.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFGLD holds above $402.89 support and price approaches $415. → Enter Bull Call Spread: Buy 2026-06-18 $415/$425 call spread for $4.18-$5.12 debit.
Exit Triggers
EXITGLD reaches $425 resistance or breaks below $402.89 support. → Exit the Bull Call Spread.

Tactical Summary

Slightly bullish bias; positive dealer gamma supports pinning near $418 max pain. Capped upside at $425. Use bull call spread to capture limited upside with defined risk. Enter near $415 if support holds; exit at target or invalidation at $402.89.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.