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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $411.50EOD only

Max Pain

$420.00

Next expiry May 20, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.43

1.1% from close

Price Gap

+8.50

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.57

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

GLD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 19, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

GLD is in a pinning regime with positive gamma below max pain, suggesting limited downside. Mixed flow and normal vol indicate range-bound behavior with a gradual drift toward $420. Neutral-bullish bias with short-term caution.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Base 5 adjusted: -1 for mixed flow, +1 for positive pinning gamma, +0.5 for low VIX.

Supports: Positive GEX $54.3M, support at $394.93, low VIX (18).
Conflicts: Mixed flow, resistance at $420, spot below max pain.

📌Max pain at $420 for May 20 expiry creates magnetic pull.

🟢Positive gamma of $54.3M suggests dealer hedging supports prices.

⚠️Mixed flow with no clear directional bias.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal vol vs typical range, no unusual stress.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive GEX $54.3M, flip at ~$360. Dealer hedging supports pinning.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed premium, balanced put/call activity.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below max pain ($420) but positive gamma supports upward drift. Short-term neutral with bias to fill pin.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pins at $420 (5/20), $419 (5/22), $417 (5/27) create event-driven drift with gamma support.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$407.07$415.93

Range $407.07-$415.93; spot near lower end, pinning to max pain.

Next 1 week

$400.90$422.10

Range $400.90-$422.10; support at $400 holds, potential bounce to $420.

Next 2 weeks

$394.93$428.07

Range $394.93-$428.07; strong support at $394.93, upside resistance at $428.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $420 (2026-05-20); $419 (2026-05-22); $417 (2026-05-27)

EM guardrails: 2d $407.07/$415.93; 1w $400.90/$422.10

Support: $400.00 · $394.93

Resistance: $420.00 · $425.00 · $428.07

Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,981 (12.5% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins: $420 (5/20), $419 (5/22), $417 (5/27). EM guardrails: 2d $407.07/$415.93, 1w $400.90/$422.10. Support: $400, $394.93. Resistance: $420, $425, $428.07. Gamma flip ~$360.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+54.3M

DEX: +101.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,981 (12.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$54.3M, DEX +101.6M shares. Gamma flip at ~$360 indicates deep put protection. Positive gamma confines moves near current range.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV in line with VIX, not rich or cheap.

Term structure: Flat across expiries, slight kinks at May OPEX (20/22/27).

Skew: Neutral skew; no clear vol arb. Consider short calendar near gamma peak.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium negative (-$192.7M) with put volume slightly exceeding calls (P/C vol 1.08), OI call-biased (0.57).

Directional prints: 29.2 call 560 OTM 2026-12-18 — Vol/OI 3.5x on far OTM Dec calls; likely bought for upside speculation (preferred), but could be sold to collect premium. 21.9 put 405 OTM 2026-05-27 — Vol/OI 5.0x on slightly ITM put; likely bought for downside protection (preferred) or sold as bearish spread.

Unusual: 19.2 call 415 OTM 2026-05-20 — Highest vol/OI (5.4x) on OTM weekly call; unusual concentration suggests aggressive bullish bet or hedging. 21.9 put 405 OTM 2026-05-27 — Vol/OI 5.0x on ITM put; unusual in near-dated puts with high premium flow. 29.2 call 560 OTM 2026-12-18 — Extreme OTM call with elevated IV (29.2%) and vol/OI 3.5x; notable for long-dated upside speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $394.93 support could trigger gamma flip to negative at $360.

!Unexpected vol spike (VIX >22) could disrupt pinning.

!Flow shifts to heavy puts could accelerate downside.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $402.00/$390.00 put wing and $424.00/$435.00 call wing Why now: Positive gamma below max pain and normal vol support defined-risk range play.	Break below $394.93 could flip gamma negative; vol spike hurts.
Short strangle	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $402.00 put + sell $424.00 call Why now: Pinning regime with normal vol makes undefined risk sale favorable.	Tail risk if vol spikes; infinite loss potential.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $402.00/$390.00 put spread Why now: Positive gamma below max pain supports defined-risk bullish bias.	Break below short put strike could cause max loss; vol spike hurts.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-06-05 $424.00/$435.00 call spread Why now: Call-biased OI and gradual drift support bullish debit spread.	If price stays below long call, loss of premium; max gain capped.

Top Plays

Range-bound Iron Condor

Sell 2026-06-05 $402.00/$390.00 put wing and $424.00/$435.00 call wing

Sells put and call wings to profit from range-bound price action near max pain.

Why this play: Best fits pinning regime and normal vol; defined-risk range play outperforms undefined risk strangle and directional spreads given limited upside.

Credit: $3.92-$4.79

Max loss: $7.21

BE: 397.21 / 428.79

Mgmt: Close if price nears wings or vol spikes; take profit at 50% max gain.

Traders expecting low volatility and range-bound price

Defined-Risk Bullish Put Spread

Sell 2026-06-05 $402.00/$390.00 put spread

Sells OTM put spread to collect premium with bullish view, limited downside.

Why this play: Supports bullish bias with defined risk; invalidation at $400 keeps risk manageable vs. short strangle.

Credit: $2.06-$2.52

Max loss: $9.48

BE: $399.48

Mgmt: Exit if price breaks below $400; roll if threatened.

Cautious bulls wanting defined risk

Upside Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-05 $424.00/$435.00 call spread

Buys OTM call spread to capture upside move with capped loss.

Why this play: Call-biased OI and gradual drift support bullish debit spread, but lower probability than credit strategies.

Debit: $1.86-$2.27

Max loss: $2.27

BE: $426.27

Mgmt: Monitor for vol expansion; close at 50% loss if price fails to rally.

Aggressive traders seeking leveraged upside

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFPrice holds $400 support, between $407-$416, VIX <22 → Enter iron condor: sell $402/$390 put wing and $424/$435 call wing

IFBullish bias, price above $402 → Enter put credit spread: sell $402/$390 put spread

IFBullish momentum, price holds above $400 → Enter bull call spread: buy $424/$435 call spread

Exit Triggers

EXITPrice breaks below $402 or above $424 → Close iron condor to limit loss

EXITPrice breaks below $400 → Close put credit spread

EXITPrice drops below $400 → Close bull call spread

Tactical Summary

GLD is pinning with support $400, resistance $420. Top play: iron condor (sell $402/$390 put, $424/$435 call) for premium. Exit if price breaches $402 or $424. Alternatively, put credit spread (sell $402/$390) if bullish above $402, exit below $400. Bull call spread (buy $424/$435) for upside, exit below $400.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.