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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $67.12EOD only
Max Pain
$68.00
Next expiry Jul 10, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.03
3.0% from close
Price Gap
+0.88
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
56
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.88
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jul 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 9, 2026 close
CVNA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 26, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for June 25, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Strong bullish flow and high IV ahead of Jul earnings. Heavy call OI suggests upside bias, but 64d time to event limits near-term catalysts.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Massive $95 Aug call buying (14x OI) and $73 June calls signal aggressive bullish positioning.
📈Massive $95 Aug call buying (14x OI) bullish bet
⚠️IV at 72%+ erodes value quickly; consider theta
🛡️Put floor $60 supports downside; 16k OI at $66
📅Earnings 64d out; near-term price driven by flow

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,121 (14.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (64 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-29 (3d): ±$3.95 (5.6%)
  • 2026-06-05 (10d): ±$6.95 (9.9%)
  • 2026-06-12 (17d): ±$9.05 (12.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Elevated across tenors; 3d IV ~68%, 17d ~73%

Crush estimate: No immediate crush; earnings 64d out

Skew: Call skew steep above $80; put floor at $60

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves align with implied moves

Directional bias: Bullish (80% beat rate, strong flow)

Key Levels

1$60.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $66.20/$74.11; 1w $63.20/$77.10
3Max pain pins: $66 (2026-05-29); $70 (2026-06-05); $68 (2026-06-12)

Flow Highlights

Unusually large volume in CVNA 2026-08-21 $95 Call (14.1x OI)

Aggressive long-dated bullish bet expecting price >$95 by Aug expiration.

Strategies

Call Diagonal Spread
Sell 2026-06-05 $75.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $84.00 call
Debit: $1.02-$1.25
Max loss: $1.25
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if stock nears $75 or adjust to higher strikes.
Near-term IV premium capture with vega neutrality; bullish but hedged; liquidity pass.
Outperforms: Sell June $75 call, buy July $84 call for credit; profits if stock stays below $75 or rises moderately.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long Straddle
Buy 2026-08-21 $70.00 put + buy $70.00 call
Debit: $18.50-$22.61
Max loss: $22.61
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 47.39 / 92.61
Trigger: Monitor vega; exit if IV drops or 30 days to expiry.
Captures implied volatility expansion from bullish flow; long-dated makes theta manageable; liquid.
Outperforms: Buy Aug $70 put and call; benefits from large move in either direction or IV rise.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $66.00 put + buy $75.00 call
Debit: $14.60-$17.85
Max loss: $17.85
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 48.15 / 92.85
Trigger: Adjust strikes if stock drifts; set profit targets at 50% of premium. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.
Cheaper alternative to straddle with asymmetric upside; less capital at risk.
Outperforms: Buy Aug $66 put and $75 call; profits from large move, especially upward.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-06-05 $66.50 put + sell $75.00 call
Credit: $3.09-$3.78
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $3.78
BE: 62.72 / 78.78
Elevated IV (~70%) and no catalysts make short strangle attractive for theta decay with wide OTM strikes.
Outperforms: Collect premium from high IV range-bound expectation pre-earnings.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High IV (~70%) amplifies theta decay in longer-dated options
!Earnings 64 days out limits near-term catalysts
!Potential gamma pin at $70 could cap short-term upside
!Large put OI at $60-$70 provides downside support but not guarantee

What to Watch

?Key levels: support $70, resistance $80
?Call OI concentration at $80-$95; monitor for unwinding
?VIX and market direction as tail risk
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.
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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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