thetaOwl
HomeOptionsCVNAReports

CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $64.39EOD only
Max Pain
$69.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.01
3.1% from close
Price Gap
+4.61
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
52
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.87
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
CVNA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

CVNA shows 80% historical beat rate but current flow is bearish with negative net premium and high put volume. IV is backwardated, earnings far. Confidence base 7, but flow contradiction warrants caution.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Heavy put block at $66 (16k vol) and negative net premium (-$2.36M) indicate bearish sentiment ahead of earnings.
🚨Negative net premium -$2.36M, put/call vol ratio 1.69
📊IV backwardation: short-term IV > long-term, typical near uncertainty
📈80% historical beat rate but current flow contradicts

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bearish
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,068 (12.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (68 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-29 (7d): ±$4.73 (6.9%)
  • 2026-06-05 (14d): ±$6.80 (10.0%)
  • 2026-06-12 (21d): ±$8.88 (13.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Backwardated: 7d IV ~50%, 14d ~46%, 21d ~42%

Crush estimate: Earnings 68d out; estimated IV crush 10-15% based on historical post-earnings declines

Skew: Put skew elevated: put/call vol ratio 1.69, put OI concentrated $40-$60

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move ~6.9% vs expected ~6% over 5 quarters (80% beat rate)

Directional bias: Historically bullish post-earnings, but current flow is bearish

Key Levels

1$60.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $63.55/$73.00
3Max pain pins: $68 (2026-05-22); $66 (2026-05-29); $70 (2026-06-05)

Flow Highlights

Aggressive put activity at $66 (16k vol vs 946 OI) and $67 (1.5k vol vs 550 OI)

Bearish hedging or outright bets; suggests downside protection or directional short

Unusual deep OTM $620 call (485 vol vs 191 OI, 50% IV) long-dated

Speculative upside bet or long volatility position, likely a tail hedge

Strategies

Risk Assessment

!Put dominance could drag spot below $68 max pain; gamma flip at $60 (12% below) if downside continues
!Call OI wall $80-$100 caps upside; VIX 16.7 moderate but near-term IV high (50%+)
!Earnings 68 days out; no near-term catalyst, potential for drift

What to Watch

?Spot reaction to $68 max pain and put volume continuation
?Gamma flip level at $60; any shift in put/call ratio or unusual activity
?Earnings timeline (July 29) and company guidance updates
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.