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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $64.91EOD only
Max Pain
$69.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.17
4.9% from close
Price Gap
+4.09
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
51
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.89
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
CVNA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

CVNA earnings 70d out; IV elevated but not event-driven. Flow shows bullish call buying despite spot below MP.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 5.9% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Unusual call volume at $70 and $80 strikes suggests upside speculation; put OI concentration at $60 provides gamma flip risk.
🟢Bullish call buying at $70 (21.7x vol/OI) suggests speculators targeting upside.
⚠️Put floor at $60 with 7.6% below spot; gamma flip risk if spot drops.
📉Net premium negative $1.68M; bearish positioning on puts offsets calls.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,410 (7.6% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (70 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (2d): ±$3.18 (4.9%)
  • 2026-05-29 (9d): ±$5.57 (8.6%)
  • 2026-06-05 (16d): ±$7.43 (11.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV 67-90%; long-dated ~50%; backwardated shape.

Crush estimate: N/A for far-dated earnings; no immediate crush.

Skew: Put skew elevated; downside protection priced in.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A (70d out)

Directional bias: Bullish flow but spot below MP; mixed.

Key Levels

1$60.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $61.74/$68.09; 1w $59.34/$70.49
3Max pain pins: $69 (2026-05-22); $70 (2026-05-29); $73 (2026-06-05)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call buying: CVNA 2026-06-05 $70 Call vol/OI 21.7x

Aggressive bullish positioning ahead of June OPEX; potential gamma squeeze catalyst.

Net premium -$1.68M; put volume elevated at $65 and below

Hedging or bearish sentiment on downside; gamma flip at $60.

Strategies

Call Calendar
Sell 2026-05-29 $68.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $68.00 call
Debit: $3.69-$4.50
Max loss: $4.50
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Monitor $60 gamma flip risk; exit if spot breaches invalidation. Adjust if call OI shifts.
Backwardated term structure and bullish call flow favor selling front-month premium, buying cheaper back-month calls.
Outperforms: Sell May $68 call, buy Jul $68 call to capture premium decay and potential upside.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Downside gamma flip: heavy put OI at $60 could accelerate selling if spot breaches.
!IV crush risk: if no earnings catalyst near-term, IV may decay.
!Vol regime: VIX 17, trending gamma; spot below MP encourages pinning pressure.

What to Watch

?Gamma flip at $60 (put OI concentration of 16,410)
?Call OI wall at $80-$92; any breakout above $69 (MP) could trigger short covering.
?Net premium shift: continued bullish flow vs. put hedging.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.