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BABA

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedClose $135.64EOD only

Max Pain

$134.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.33

3.9% from close

Price Gap

-1.64

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.69

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BABA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

BABA Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer flow report is available for April 6, 2026.

View latest report

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +1.5 significant bearish premium flow; +1 GEX pinning supports mean reversion; +0.5 spot at max pain; -0.5 mixed P/C volume ratio

Watch next session: $122-$123 put activity for support test; Any call buying above $130 to challenge bearish flow

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$21.7M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 0.60 — call-dominant volume

P/C OI ratio: 0.75 — moderate put lean in positioning

A significant bearish premium flow of -$21.7M conflicts with a call-dominant volume ratio, indicating large, concentrated put purchases. The positioning (OI) shows a put lean, suggesting institutions are building downside protection. The flow signals bearish conviction despite higher call volume.

Notable Prints

BABA 4/2 $123 Put

Vol: 3,477

OI: 1,507

Vol/OI: 2.3x

IV: 28.3%

Notional: ~$5.4M (est. premium ~$1.55M)

Intent: Near-term directional bearish bet or protective hedge

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold for income (neutral/bullish)

Read-through: High-volume, low-IV put purchase just below spot. Likely a bearish bet targeting a quick move below $123, aligning with the 2-day expected move low of $123.09.

BABA 4/10 $132 Call

Vol: 1,941

OI: 756

Vol/OI: 2.6x

IV: 39.9%

Notional: ~$2.4M (est. premium ~$1.0M)

Intent: Upside speculation or call spread leg

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout) or sold (covered call/neutral)

Read-through: Significant call flow above the current price. Given the overall bearish premium, this could be a speculative long-delta play against the grain or part of a more complex structure (e.g., a call spread sold against a longer-dated position).

BABA 4/2 $122 Put

Vol: 1,979

OI: 895

Vol/OI: 2.2x

IV: 28.2%

Notional: ~$3.1M (est. premium ~$1.56M)

Intent: Near-term bearish bet, stacking with $123P

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (bullish)

Read-through: Another large, low-IV put purchase just below spot. The clustering of activity at $122 and $123 suggests a defined bearish target zone for the weekly expiration, reinforcing the near-term downside focus.

BABA 4/17 $165 Put

Vol: 1,200

OI: 610

Vol/OI: 2.0x

IV: 88.2%

Notional: ~$19.8M (est. premium ~$0.12M)

Intent: Far OTM protective put or part of a complex hedge/ratio spread

Dual read: Bought (catastrophic hedge) or sold (income generation)

Read-through: Extremely high IV suggests this is a cheap, far OTM hedge. The low premium relative to notional indicates it's likely a tail-risk hedge purchased by a large holder, not a direct directional bet on a move to $165.

BABA 3/19/27 $20 Put

Vol: 973

OI: 572

Vol/OI: 1.7x

IV: 71.5%

Notional: ~$1.95M (est. premium ~$0.03M)

Intent: Ultra-long-dated, deep OTM tail-risk hedge

Dual read: Bought (structural portfolio hedge) or sold (very bullish)

Read-through: A 1-year+ dated put with a strike 84% below spot. This is a pure, low-cost insurance policy against a catastrophic decline, not a near-term directional signal.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Notable call OI at $130 (24.7K), $140 (22.6K), $150 (26.2K). The $130 call saw high premium inflow ($2.3M net).

Put additions: Major put OI wall at $120 (24.2K). Top premium flow strikes are overwhelmingly bearish ($170P, $165P, $220P netting -$5M to -$3M each).

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Positive GEX (+$9.2M) indicates a pinning/mean-reverting regime, which aligns with spot sitting at max pain ($126) and the concentrated put flow just below.

OI clusters: Call walls: $150 (26.2K), $130 (24.7K), $140 (22.6K). Put wall: $120 (24.2K). This creates a likely range between $120 (strong support) and $130-$140 (resistance).

Hedging evidence: Clear evidence of hedging: 1) Concentrated $120 put OI wall. 2) Large premium flow into OTM puts ($165P, $175P). 3) Ultra-long-dated tail-risk puts ($20P 2027).

Max pain context: Spot ($125.46) is at the near-term max pain ($126 for 3/27). This, combined with positive GEX, supports a pinning effect and increases the significance of the $122-$123 put flow as a break level.

Signal vs Noise

~The $165 and $175 puts for 4/17 are high-IV, far OTM tail-risk hedges. Their high notional but low premium suggests hedging, not directional conviction.

~The $20 put for 2027 is a multi-year tail-risk hedge; ignore for near-term direction.

~High call volume ratio (P/C 0.6) may be inflated by retail/speculative activity, while the large institutional money (premium flow) is bearish.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Major bearish premium flow (-$21.7M) driven by large OTM put purchases conflicts with call-heavy volume, signaling smart money hedging.

📌Spot pinned at max pain ($126) with positive GEX. Watch $122-$123 put strikes for a breakdown signal.

🛡️Institutions building downside protection: $120 put OI wall (24K) and premium into $165-$220 puts.

🎯Near-term bearish target zone is $122-$123 (high-volume put flow), aligning with the 2-day expected move low ($123.09).

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.