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AVGO

Broadcom Inc.Close $417.76EOD only

Max Pain

$415.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$15.48

3.7% from close

Price Gap

-2.76

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.16

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

AVGO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a strong pinning force toward $310-$320, though the gravitational pull has weakened slightly. Confidence: 8.5/10. Spot has rallied to $314.55, now much closer to near-term max pain levels, reducing the drift potential but maintaining a supportive, range-bound regime.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP. No override needed.

Supports: GEX +$101.9M (strong pinning), Net Premium +$28.7M (bullish), P/C Volume 0.79 (call dominance).
Conflicts: Spot is now near MP, reducing drift catalyst. Elevated IV (47.6%) adds premium but also tail risk.

📊GEX +$101.9M indicates powerful pinning and mean reversion.

🎯Spot at $314.55 is now between near-term MP levels ($310-$320), suggesting a tight range.

💰Net premium remains positive at +$28.7M, supporting a bullish bias.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 47.6% is elevated, providing edge to premium sellers in a stable, pinning regime.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$101.9M is massive and positive, indicating dealer hedging is a powerful stabilizing and mean-reverting force.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium +$28.7M with P/C Vol 0.79 shows continued institutional call buying dominance, though less extreme than prior report.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $314.55 is between the 3/27 MP ($310) and 3/23 MP ($320), reducing the clear drift target but keeping it within the pinning zone.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends downward from $320 to $310 over the next several weekly expirations, and the strongly positive GEX sign is a structural feature across the term structure, indicating the pinning regime persists beyond a single event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$313.62$315.47

Extremely tight EM; pin dominates. A break above $315.47 targets $320, below $313.62 targets $310.

Next 1 week

$303.02$326.07

Positive GEX and flow support a grind higher toward $320-$326; $303.02 is key support.

Next 2 weeks

$292.60$336.50

Flow supports; upside limited by structural call walls ($360+). Downside protected by put floor and pinning.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $320 (2026-03-23); $318 (2026-03-25); $310 (2026-03-27)

EM guardrails: 2d $313.62/$315.47; 1w $303.02/$326.07

Support: $250.00 · $220.00 · $265.00

Resistance: $600.00 · $390.00 · $360.00

Gamma flip: ~$250.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,025

Structural: **Call OI walls at $360, $390, $600** create formidable long-term resistance. **Put floor at $220, $250, $265** is far below and not a near-term concern, indicating long-term bullish positioning.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+101.9M

DEX: +42.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$250 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,025)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip is far below at ~$250. The massive positive GEX means dealer hedging **dampens volatility** and **reinforces the current range**. A +2% move toward $321 would trigger dealer selling (resistance), a -2% move toward $308 would trigger dealer buying (support).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 47.6% is very high (no VIX given, but context suggests elevated vol). Premium selling is strongly favored.

Term structure: Humped: Steep rise from 8.4% (0d) to 38.4% (4/10), then plateaus in the mid-40s. **Kink at 4/6 (26.5%) vs 4/8 (36.1%)** creates a ~10 vol-pt differential — a clear calendar spread opportunity.

Skew: Sell 4/8 $320C (IV ~36%) vs. buy 4/6 $320C (IV ~26%) for a reverse calendar to capture steep near-term vol decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$28.7M bullish; P/C Vol 0.79, P/C OI 1.16.

Directional prints: $327.50C 4/6 vol 1,726 vs OI 107 (16x) — likely bought calls targeting upside. $290P 4/6 vol 1,063 vs OI 113 (9x) — could be sold puts (bullish) or protective buys; sold is more consistent with bullish flow.

Unusual: Massive net negative premium at $380 strike (-$8.3M) due to put activity — likely a structural hedge/position, not near-term directional.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma pin weakens** if spot falls below $310 (key MP and support).

!**IV crush risk** is high on any stability, punishing long premium plays.

!**Earnings date TBD (~6/3)** will inject volatility; monitor for official date.

!**Elevated IV (47.6%)** increases tail risk premium for short strategies.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	$305/$300P x $325/$330C 4/17 (15 DTE). Short puts at 1w EM support ($303.02), short calls above MP ($320).	Break of pin range; defined risk.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell $310/$305 put spread 4/17. Collect premium below spot with pin support at $310 MP.	Spot collapses below $305.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $330C 6/18 (77 DTE). Above near-term resistance, captures elevated IV.	Capped upside if stock rallies past $330.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $320C 4/17, targeting MP drift. High IV is a significant headwind.	IV crush and failed pin drift.
Long puts / bear put spread	Weak	Avoid — contradicts bullish flow, positive GEX, and pin regime.	Fighting strong supportive gamma and flow.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Call Calendar: Sell $320C 4/8 (IV ~36%), Buy $320C 4/6 (IV ~26%). Captures ~10 vol-pt decay.	Spot moves far from $320, hurting short gamma.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy Jan 2027 $300C (IV ~48%), sell monthly $330C against it. Leverages long-term bullish flow and high IV.	Capital intensive; near-term pin limits short call premium.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid — positive GEX and bullish flow create strong headwinds.	Squeeze toward MP and dealer buying on dips.

Top Plays

Bull Put Spread

Sell $310/$305 put spread, exp 4/17.

Capitalizes on the strong pinning regime and bullish flow by selling downside risk below key max pain and support. Defined risk aligns with multi-week thesis.

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $308.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $310.

Traders seeking defined-risk premium collection with a bullish bias.

Reverse Call Calendar

Sell $320C 4/8, Buy $320C 4/6.

Exploits the ~10 vol-pt differential in the steep near-term term structure by selling higher IV (4/8) and buying lower IV (4/6). Profits from vol decay and a pin near $320.

Credit: $0.35-$0.50

Max loss: Unlimited (short call risk)

BE: Complex; manage at 50% credit or if spot moves >$5 from $320.

Mgmt: Close for 50% profit. Roll short leg if spot approaches $325.

Volatility traders comfortable with pinning dynamics and defined risk.

Covered Call (77 DTE)

Own shares, sell the $330C 6/18.

The longer DTE (77 days) provides more premium and time for the bullish pin/drift thesis to play out, while staying below the major $360 OI wall. Better than a weekly because it avoids weekly pin noise, captures higher IV (50.1%), and gives the stock room to grind toward resistance.

Credit: $8.50-$11.00

Max loss: Unlimited below stock price minus credit

BE: Stock price minus credit received

Mgmt: Roll up and out if spot approaches $330. Close if pin breaks below $305.

Shareholders looking to generate significant income with a neutral-to-bullish outlook.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot pulls back to $310 (key MP/support) and holds for 1 hour → Sell $310/$305 put spread 4/17.

IFIf spot rallies to tag $320 (near-term MP) and stalls → Enter reverse calendar: Sell $320C 4/8, Buy $320C 4/6.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes below $305 (below key put spread short strike) → Exit all bullish premium-selling positions (put spreads, condors).

EXITIf IV on 4/8 expiry drops below 30% (vol crush) → Take profit on reverse calendar spread.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Strong pinning and mean reversion within a $310-$326 range over the next 2-3 weeks, fueled by massive positive GEX and bullish flow. Invalidation is a close below $305. The regime strongly favors selling premium (puts/put spreads, iron condors) and volatility arbitrage (reverse calendars). Top Plays: 1) Bull Put Spread for defined-risk bulls, 2) Reverse Calendar for vol traders exploiting term structure, 3) Covered Call for shareholders seeking high-income with longer duration to navigate the pin.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.