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AVGO

Broadcom Inc.Close $417.76EOD only

Max Pain

$415.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$15.48

3.7% from close

Price Gap

-2.76

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.16

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

AVGO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a strong pinning force toward $310-$320 over the next week. Confidence: 7.5/10. Spot is below near-term max pain levels, creating a gravitational pull upward, supported by strong positive GEX and bullish net premium flow.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned bullish; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.3% from MP. No overriding catalysts identified.

Supports: GEX +$20.4M (strong pinning), Net Premium +$78.6M (bullish), P/C Volume 0.77 (call dominance).
Conflicts: Spot below MP creates short-term friction, but flow and gamma support the drift higher.

📌Strong pinning regime with GEX +$20.4M

📈Net premium +$78.6M signals institutional call buying

🎯Spot below MP ($309.51 vs $320) creates upside magnet

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 49.6% is elevated, providing edge to premium sellers in a pinning regime.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$20.4M indicates dealer hedging is a stabilizing, mean-reverting force near spot.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium +$78.6M with P/C Vol 0.77 shows clear institutional call buying dominance.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $309.51 is below the $320 max pain for the nearest expiry, creating a pin drift target.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends downward from $320 to $310 over the next 4 expirations, and GEX sign remains strongly positive across the term structure, indicating the pinning regime persists beyond a single weekly event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$305.27$313.75

Driven by pin toward $320 MP; break below $305.27 invalidates.

Next 1 week

$298.46$320.56

Max pain at $310-$317.50 and positive GEX contain moves; $320 is key resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$286.09$332.94

Flow supports; structural call OI at $360 caps major upside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $320 (2026-03-23); $318 (2026-03-25); $310 (2026-03-27)

EM guardrails: 2d $305.27/$313.75; 1w $298.46/$320.56

Support: $100.00 · $250.00 · $220.00

Resistance: $600.00 · $390.00 · $360.00

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,235

Structural: **Call OI walls at $360, $390, $600** create formidable long-term resistance. **Put floor at $100, $220, $250, $265** is far below and not a near-term concern, indicating long-term bullish positioning.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+20.4M

DEX: +42.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,235)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$100 is irrelevant near-term. Positive GEX of +$20.4M means dealer hedging **dampens volatility** and **pulls spot toward high gamma strikes** (likely near $310-$320). A ±2% move would increase dealer buying (on dips) or selling (on rallies), reinforcing the pin.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 49.6% is very high (no VIX given, but context suggests elevated vol). Premium selling is favored.

Term structure: Humped: near-dated (4/1: 29.7%) cheapens, then spikes (4/2: 41.0%, 4/8: 41.7%). Steep drop from 4/8 to 4/1 creates a **~12 vol-pt differential** — a clear calendar spread opportunity.

Skew: Sell 4/8 $320C (IV 41.2%) vs. buy 4/1 $320C (IV 23.4%) for a reverse calendar to capture vol decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$78.6M strongly bullish; P/C Vol 0.77, P/C OI 1.17.

Directional prints: $317.50C 4/1 vol 6,417 vs OI 2,692 (2.4x) — likely bought calls targeting MP. $310P 4/1 vol 3,322 vs OI 152 (21.9x) at IV 14.7% — could be sold puts or protective buys; sold is more consistent with bullish flow.

Unusual: Massive OI in $100P (16,235) and $600C (15,471) — structural, likely hedge/leap positions, not near-term directional.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma pin breaks** if spot falls below $305 (2d EM low).

!**IV crush risk** on any stability, punishing long premium plays.

!**Earnings date TBD (~6/3)** will inject volatility; monitor for official date.

!**Structural call walls** ($360+) limit explosive upside without significant catalyst.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	$300/$295P x $320/$325C 4/17 (30-45 DTE). Short puts at 1w EM support, short calls at MP/resistance.	Break of pin range; defined risk.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell $300/$295 put spread 4/17. Collect premium below spot with pin support.	Spot collapses below $295.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $320C 4/17 (above MP target).	Capped upside if stock rallies past $320.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $315C 4/17, targeting MP drift. High IV is a headwind.	IV crush and failed pin drift.
Long puts / bear put spread	Weak	Avoid — contradicts bullish flow and pin regime.	Fighting strong supportive gamma and flow.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Calendar: Sell $320C 4/8 (IV 41.2%), Buy $320C 4/1 (IV 23.4%). Captures steep near-term vol decay.	Spot moves far from $320, hurting short gamma.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy Jan 2027 $300C (IV ~47.8%), sell monthly $320C against it. Leverages long-term bullish flow.	Capital intensive; near-term pin limits short call premium.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid — positive GEX and bullish flow create headwinds.	Squeeze toward MP.

Top Plays

Bull Put Spread

Sell $300/$295 put spread, exp 4/17.

Capitalizes on the pinning regime and bullish flow by selling downside risk below key support. Defined risk aligns with multi-week thesis.

Credit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $298.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $300.

Traders seeking defined-risk premium collection with a bullish bias.

Reverse Call Calendar

Sell $320C 4/8, Buy $320C 4/1.

Exploits the ~12 vol-pt differential in term structure by selling high IV (4/8) and buying low IV (4/1). Profits from vol decay and pin near $320.

Credit: $0.40-$0.60

Max loss: Unlimited (short call risk)

BE: Complex; manage at 50% credit or if spot moves >$5 from $320.

Mgmt: Close for 50% profit. Roll short leg if spot approaches $325.

Volatility traders comfortable with pinning dynamics.

Covered Call (45+ DTE)

Own shares, sell the $330C 6/18.

The longer DTE (79 days) provides more premium and time for the bullish pin/drift thesis to play out, while staying below the major $360 OI wall. Better than a weekly because it avoids weekly pin noise and captures higher IV.

Credit: $8.00-$10.00

Max loss: Unlimited below stock price minus credit

BE: Stock price minus credit received

Mgmt: Roll up and out if spot approaches $330. Close if pin breaks below $300.

Shareholders looking to generate income with a neutral-to-bullish outlook.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot rallies to tag $317.50 (near MP) and stalls → Enter reverse calendar: Sell $320C 4/8, Buy $320C 4/1.

IFIf spot pulls back to $305 (2d EM support) and holds for 1 hour → Sell $300/$295 put spread 4/17.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes below $300 (key put OI level) → Exit all bullish premium-selling positions (put spreads, condors).

EXITIf IV on 4/8 expiry drops below 35% (vol crush) → Take profit on reverse calendar spread.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Bullish pin drift toward $310-$320 over the next 2-3 weeks, fueled by positive GEX and bullish flow. Invalidation is a close below $300. The regime favors selling premium (puts/put spreads) and volatility arbitrage (calendars). Top Plays: 1) Bull Put Spread for defined-risk bulls, 2) Reverse Calendar for vol traders, 3) Covered Call for shareholders seeking income with longer duration.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.