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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $448.29EOD only

Max Pain

$320.00

Next expiry May 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$26.32

5.9% from close

Price Gap

-128.29

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.06

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 12, 2026 close

AMD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

AMD is supported by bullish flow and strong dealer long gamma positioning ($+68.2M GEX) with moderate VIX (18), but spot is 35% above max pain ($400 for weekly expiry). Near-term bullish bias within ranges, but caution if spot fails to hold above $424. Event-driven upside risk with potential for pinning near highs.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow alignment; +1 positive GEX; -1 spot distance from MP; +1 VIX at 18.

Supports: Bullish flow, positive GEX, moderate VIX, strong dealer delta.
Conflicts: Spot far above max pain, high vol regime, potential vol contraction after expiry.

📈Bullish flow and +68.2M GEX alignment support upward drift.

⚠️Spot 35% above max pain ($400) — rallies may be sold into strength.

📊High vol regime with weekly expiry event — expect intraday volatility.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Vol regime high with VIX at 17.87; AMD IV likely elevated above VIX due to event risk (weekly options expiry).

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +68.2M, positive gamma dealers provide pinning action near highs. Gamma flip not near.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium flow bullish, consistent with positive dealer positioning.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot at ~445, 35% above max pain for next weekly ($400). This implies upward pressure but may attract hedging opposite.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Primary driver is the weekly options expiry on May 15, with high GEX and bullish flow creating near-term directional bias. Longer-term outlook depends on post-expiry flow.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$424.00$467.00

Upward bias limited by gamma pinning near $467 resistance.

Next 1 week

$403.85$487.15

Wider range supports drift higher; max pain at $400 may act as magnet.

Next 2 weeks

$393.48$497.52

Structural support at $393.48 and resistance at $497.52; event risk dominates.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $330 (2026-05-15); $400 (2026-05-22); $355 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $424.00/$467.00; 1w $403.85/$487.15

Support: $393.48

Resistance: $450.00 · $497.52

Structural: Support: 393.48. Resistance: 450.0, 497.52. Max pain pins: $330 (May 15), $400 (May 22), $355 (May 29). EM guardrails: 2d $424/$467, 1w $403.85/$487.15.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+68.2M

DEX: +111.3M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: NTM GEX +$68.2M (long gamma), dealers net long 111.3M shares delta. No gamma flip near.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: AMD IV elevated relative to VIX (17.87), consistent with high vol regime and event premium.

Term structure: Term structure likely backwardated near weekly expiry (May 15) due to event risk, with potential contango after.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider short put spreads to capture time decay if maintaining bullish view.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$488M, call volume dominates (P/C vol 0.63), strong bullish flow.

Directional prints: 67.2 call 447.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol 5626 vs OI 1234, near-money call bought, bullish. 66.2 put 440 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol 7818 vs OI 1779, OTM put likely sold for premium, bullish. 76.1 call 490 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol 8820 vs OI 1669, far OTM call bought, bullish lottery.

Unusual: 73.9 put 397.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 13.9, OTM put with high IV, speculative bearish hedge. 66.3 put 470 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 9.6, ITM put with $51.85 premium, large bearish position. 76.6 call 492.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 5.5, far OTM call with IV 76.6%, small bullish speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Failure to hold above $424 (2d low) could trigger stop losses.

!Gamma flip if spot moves below $393 support.

!Volatility contraction after May 15 expiry may reduce premium.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-17 $390.00/$350.00 put spread Why now: Bullish flow and strong GEX support, but caution above $424 supports premium collection.	If spot falls below 430, max loss on spread.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $490.00/$550.00 call spread Why now: Strong call volume and bullish unusual activity suggest momentum higher.	Max loss limited to debit paid; upside capped at higher strike.
Call diagonal	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-12 $540.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $500.00 call Why now: Near-term vol high; selling front-month, buying later for term structure.	If spot drops significantly, back-month call loses value.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $490.00/$550.00 call spread

Buy $490/$550 call spread for amplified upside with defined risk.

Why this play: Leverages strong call volume and bullish flow for momentum upside.

Debit: $13.43-$16.42

Max loss: $16.42

BE: $506.42

Mgmt: Close if spot breaks below $424 or near target $550.

Aggressive bullish traders seeking high delta exposure.

Call Diagonal

Sell 2026-06-12 $540.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $500.00 call

Sell front-month $540 call, buy back-month $500 call for theta decay.

Why this play: Exploits high near-term IV while maintaining longer-dated bullish exposure.

Debit: $19.93-$24.37

Max loss: $24.37

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Adjust if spot moves above sold strike; consider rolling.

Traders expecting near-term consolidation but medium-term upside.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $390.00/$350.00 put spread

Sell $390/$350 put spread to collect premium with buffer.

Why this play: Captures premium from bullish flow with wide support at $390.

Credit: $10.19-$12.46

Max loss: $27.54

BE: $377.54

Mgmt: Exit early if spot approaches $390 or if vol spikes.

Moderately bullish traders seeking income with defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $424 (2d EM low) with bullish momentum → THEN sell 2026-07-17 $390.00/$350.00 put spread

IFIF spot breaks above $450 (resistance) with volume → THEN buy 2026-07-17 $490.00/$550.00 call spread

IFIF spot stabilizes near $500 with elevated IV → THEN sell 2026-06-12 $540.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $500.00 call diagonal

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot closes below $393.48 (invalidation level) → THEN exit all bullish strategies

Tactical Summary

AMD bullish due to flow and dealer gamma; support at $393, resistance $450 and $498. Targets breakout above $424 or $450. Risk of gamma flip below $393.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.