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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $258.12EOD only

Max Pain

$225.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.52

3.3% from close

Price Gap

-33.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.11

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 15, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 15, 2026 close

AMD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with an upside magnet toward the near-term call cluster around $260-$270 but structural pinning pressure to $225; confidence base 7.5/10 driven by heavy positive GEX (+$91.4M) and large bullish net premium (+$133.6M) with IV elevated (overall Avg IV 63.3%) and spot 14.7% above Max Pain creating tension.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Baseline confidence = 5.0; adjustments applied: +2.0 (GEX/flow alignment), +1.0 (GEX positive/pinning), -1.0 (spot distance from MP), +0.5 (VIX 18) => 5.0 +2 +1 -1 +0.5 = 7.5; **Note:** 'Avg IV 63.3%' is the cross-strike average IV (all strikes); the ATM term structure is lower (2d ATM 46.6% 16d ATM ~50.9%), so references to ATM in the note refer to ATM term vols, not the overall Avg IV.

Supports: 1) Concentrated NTM positive GEX at $260 (+$14.6M), $255 (+$6.3M) and $270 (+$6.7M) creates a local upside magnet; 2) Deterministic net premium +$133.6M and P/C vol 0.79 show bullish bought-call / sell-put flow; 3) ATM IV elevated (46.6% 2d → ~51% 16d) supports premium sellers but preserves rich longer-dated vol for calendars/diagonals.
Conflicts: 1) Max Pain $225 across next 3 expirations (declining MP trend) is a structural pin below spot; 2) Spot 14.7% above MP increases tail risk to the downside if macro reverts; 3) IV term shows a kink higher into early May (possible earnings re-pricing).

📌Pinning regime: max pain $225 repeated for 4 consecutive near expiries — dealers have incentive to hedge toward the 225 sink.

↗️Short-dated call demand concentrated at $260/$270 (top premium flow and GEX), creating an upside magnet in the next 2–9 days.

⚠️Earnings in 20d (2026-05-05) and rising IV into May (58.0% at 23d) create a two-week event kink — calendars/diagonals can extract value but risk vol-rerate.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol: ATM IVs elevated (2d 46.6% → 16d ~50.9%, avg ATM ~51%) meaning options are rich relative to typical single-digit VIX context (VIX 18.17).

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: positive GEX concentration near $255-$270 forces dealer delta-selling into squeezes and re-hedging flows around those strikes; flip far below ~ $200 so flip risk is distant.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish: deterministic net premium +$133.6M and P/C vol 0.79 indicate heavy call buying and/or put selling — supports upside pressure and call-side IV stays elevated.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above MP: spot $258.12 is 14.7% above near-term max pain $225 so mechanical wedge exists — dealers are long gamma into the pin which can amplify moves down toward $225 if market momentum reverses.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and positive GEX persist across multiple weekly expirations (MP pinned at $225 across next 3 expirations), flow regime consistent across expirations and earnings event in 20d provides continuation window—prefer 30-45 DTE for primary, weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$249.59$266.64

Driven by concentrated call GEX at $260 and $257.5; break above $266.64 would accelerate toward $274.97 (1w upper).

Next 1 week

$241.27$274.97

Upside catalyzed by call demand at $260/$270; failure below $241.27 reopens path to MP $225.00.

Next 2 weeks

$235.54$280.69

Earnings re-pricing (2026-05-05) and higher IV in 23d (58.0%) are the decisive breakers; close below $235.54 threatens gamma flip toward $200.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $225 (2026-04-17); $225 (2026-04-24); $225 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails: 2d $249.59/$266.64; 1w $241.27/$274.97

Support: $235.54

Resistance: $280.69

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx 1based on put OI concentration of 28,229 (22.5% below spot); flip sits well below near-term EMs and is a medium-term structural backstop.

Structural: Structural put floor $140-$200 is long-term support for deep hedges; treat it as a catastrophe layer only for allocation sizing rather than near-term trade trigger.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+91.4M

DEX: +82.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 28,229 (22.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term positive gamma concentrated at $260 (+$14.6M), $250 (+$7.8M), $270 (+$6.7M) and $255 (+$6.3M) means dealers will buy delta if spot pokes above those strikes and sell delta if it falls below, producing pin/magnet behavior around $255-$270; if spot moves +2% (~$263) dealers will be short less delta (reducing upward pressure), if spot moves -2% (~$253) dealers will add hedge selling (amplifying downside toward $245-$240).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: AMD IV is rich vs VIX (ATM avg 63.3% vs VIX 18.17) on stock-specific skew and upcoming earnings; rich short-dated IV (46.6% 2d, 50.9% 16d) favors premium sales for defined-risk trades while offering calendars/diagonals to sell near-term premium and buy back-month vol.

Term structure: Term structure shows a near-term concave kink into early May (23d ATM 58.0% vs 16d 50.9%), indicating event-pricing into earnings 2026-05-05; prefer selling 2–23d vol into that kink or buying back-month beyond 37d for diagonal calendars.

Skew: Call-heavy flow has flattened call skew near $260-$300 while puts are deeper OTM (heavy OI at $200), creating an actionable mispriced vol: sell 2–9d ATM/OTM calls (weekly) and buy 30–45d calls at same strikes via call_calendar/diagonal to capture elevated front IV — calendar/diagonal is the standout vol-structure opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium heavily bullish (+$133.6M) with P/C vol 0.79 and OI ratio 1.11 indicating call-buying bias and put OI accumulation deeper, consistent with dealer pinning toward lower MP.

Directional prints: 46.1 put 257.5 OTM 2026-04-17 — AMD260417P00257500 large short-dated put volume (Vol 3,848 OI 168) 1ikely bought protection into weeklies; consistent with hedging alongside call buying. 46.2 put 255 OTM 2026-04-17 — AMD260417P00255000 (Vol 8,330 OI 829) high activity at 255; two-sided but context favors protective buys (hedge) against short-term downside. 46.9 put 260 ITM 2026-04-17 — AMD260417P00260000 ITM short-dated put flow (Vol 2,921 OI 432) signaling defensive positioning into the pin; aligns with concentrated short-dated hedging. 47 call 257.5 ITM 2026-04-17 — AMD260417C00257500 very large call print (Vol 11,373 OI 2,608) indicating aggressive short-dated directional call buying; this materially strengthens the short-term bullish read and contributes to the NTM upside magnet.

Unusual: 50 call 257.5 ITM 2026-04-24 — AMD260424C00257500 heavy call print (Vol 3,662 OI 604) 1ikely directional call buying into next-week expiry; consistent with net bullish flow. 47 call 257.5 ITM 2026-04-17 — AMD260417C00257500 massive 4/17 call print (Vol 11,373 OI 2,608) 1his is a primary driver of short-dated call demand and reinforces the NTM upside magnet at $257.5-$260.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings (2026-05-05) repricing: IV kink into May (23d ATM 58.0%) could spike or crush post-release.

!Gamma reversion: failure below 1w lower EM $241.27 would trigger dealer hedge selling toward $225 MP.

!Macro sell-off: QQQ/SPY weakness would unwind call-heavy flow and rapidly lift put skew toward $200 support.

!Vol term shift: back-month IV could rerate higher if downside accelerates, making short-front/long-back calendars loss-making if not managed.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $235.00/$230.00 put spread Why now: Bullish flow, heavy NTM GEX and elevated short-dated IV make selling short-dated put spreads efficient; put OI deeper ($200) anchors long-tail protection so defined-risk breakpoints are attractive.	Downside gap below $241.27 / MP $225 causing fast losses if unhedged
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-04-24 $235.00 cash-secured put Why now: Support deterministic at $235.54 and 1w lower EM $241.27 provide buy-the-dip entry with attractive short-dated premium.	Pin to $225 across expiries increases chance of assignment; requires capital to secure.
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-04-24 $280.00/$290.00 call spread Why now: Call-heavy front flow leaves elevated credit at $275-$285; defined-risk sale captures decay while respecting resistance $280.69.	Continuation of call buying above $280 will force widening losses.
Put calendar	Moderate	Sell 2026-04-17 $235.00 put / buy 2026-05-22 $235.00 put Why now: Near-term put flow shows hedging; selling 2–9d puts and buying 30–64d puts at same strike captures term-structure kink into earnings and MP drift.	Sharp downside moves can make short leg painful before back-month responds.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-15 $280.00/$290.00 call spread Why now: Concentrated call flow and GEX near $260 favors a defined-risk debit spread capturing upside while lowering cost vs naked calls.	If price grinds sideways below $255 premium decays; earnings IV moves can widen spreads.
Bullish risk reversal	Conditional	Buy 2026-05-22 $280.00 call / sell 2026-05-22 $235.00 put Why now: Put OI concentrated at $200 and rich front calls make a funded risk reversal appealing to express bullishness without initial debit.	Short puts widen P/L heavily on downside gap; requires margin and conviction.
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-04-17 $235.00/$225.00 put wing and $280.00/$290.00 call wing Why now: High short-dated IV and pinning allow selling premium for defined risk if you believe spot will remain between the 1w guardrails.	Tail risk to rapid directional moves—requires strict width management and fast adjustments.
Call calendar	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $280.00 call / buy 2026-05-22 $280.00 call Why now: Front-week calls are rich and call demand concentrated at $257.5-$260; calendar captures time-decay differential and back-month IV support.	Short front leg can be exercised/ITM on a quick gap; requires roll management.

Top Plays

Short-dated Put Credit Spread (defined-risk bullish premium sale)

Sell 2026-04-17 $235.00/$230.00 put spread

Sell 2-9d 235/230 put spreads to harvest short-dated premium while staying inside 1w EM guardrails; example structure is short 235 / long 230 to match declared setup.

Why this play: Collects rich short-dated premium where call flow dominates and NTM GEX supports limited immediate downside; defined-risk if assigned below $235.

Credit/Debit: N/A

Max loss: N/A

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close or roll if price breaches $241.27 or if spread approaches max loss; tighten or avoid before earnings 2026-05-05.

Accounts wanting defined-risk income or those seeking stock-entry below $235.

Call Calendar at $280 (sell front IV, own back convexity)

Sell 2026-04-17 $280.00 call / buy 2026-05-22 $280.00 call

Sell the 4/17 $280 call and buy the 5/22 $280 call to monetize rich front-week IV while retaining upside optionality into May; both legs reference $280 to match the setup.

Why this play: Front-week calls are rich and calendar captures time decay differential ahead of earnings while remaining consistent with concentrated call demand at nearby strikes.

Credit/Debit: N/A

Max loss: N/A

BE: N/A

Mgmt: If front IV collapses pre-earnings close short leg or roll to next week; if spot gaps >$280 consider rolling short leg up or closing.

Vol-structure traders seeking to sell front-week IV and keep back-month convexity for earnings exposure.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot trades >$263.00 (≈+2% from $258.12) and front-week IV shows continued demand then → enter call_diagonal: short front-week 260 call (2–9d) and buy 30–45d 260 call.

IFIf spot falls to ≤$245.00 (inside 1w EM lower $241.27 but above support $235.54) then → enter put_credit_spread: sell 245/240 short-dated put spread (2–9d expiries).

IFIf short-dated put prints (e.g., AMD260417P00255000) spike in OI/vol expands and spot remains >$250 then → enter cash_secured_put: sell 245 put (9–16d) as a tactical assignment candidate.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf front-week short-call (diagonal) goes ITM and spot >$270 then → roll short_call up to next strike (e.g., 275) or close short leg and retain long back-month call.

ADJIf price breaks below 1w lower EM $241.27 then → close or hedge short premium positions (put credits / iron condors) and buy May/June puts (put_calendar long leg) to re-center risk.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot >$280.69 (2w upper EM) then → close call-based short legs (diagonal/calendar) and take profits on directional bull spreads.

EXITIf post-earnings IV crush reduces 30–45d IV by >10 vol points or front IV collapses then → close calendars/diagonals and harvest remaining long convexity.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: short-dated call-selling / diagonal calendars to monetize rich front IV and positive GEX with tactical put-credit for income; invalidation is swift break below 1w lower EM $241.27 or fast push toward MP $225. Top plays: call diagonal (s2) for directional upside, put credit (s1) for defined income, and call calendar (s9) for front/back vol capture — choose based on risk tolerance and assignment appetite.

Read the Directional analysis for AMD for 2026-04-15. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.