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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $449.59EOD only
Max Pain
$420.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.50
2.8% from close
Price Gap
-29.59
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
56
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.08
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
AMD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

AMD trades above max pain ($420) with high volatility and strong dealer gamma pinning. GEX/flow alignment supports near-term stability, but spot 7% above MP and mixed flow suggest mean reversion risk toward $420. High vol and VIX ~17 add premium decay opportunity.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5 from overall; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 positive gamma pinning; -1 spot 7% from MP; +1 VIX supportive. Total 8.
Supports: Dealer gamma +$77.9M, GEX/flow alignment, VIX ~17, positive gamma pinning.
Conflicts: Spot 7% above MP, mixed flow, high vol regime, resistance $450.
📌Max pain $420 on 2026-05-22 expiry; strong pinning signal.
⚠️Spot 7% above MP; mean reversion risk high.
📈VIX 17 supports premium decay; IV rich vs VIX.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated relative to typical; VIX 16.76 contributes to rich premium environment.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
GEX +$77.9M, positive gamma pinning near $420 with no flip within 30% of spot.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium; call/put OI uncertain but overall flow provides partial support.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot ~7% above max pain $420; suggests potential mean reversion to pin.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Focus on 2026-05-22 monthly expiry; dealer gamma provides near-term pinning catalyst.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$437.09$462.09
Pin to $420 expiry; target lower end $437.
Next 1 week
$415.91$483.26
Post-expiry drift to $415 support.
Next 2 weeks
$401.89$497.29

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $420 (2026-05-22); $400 (2026-05-29); $400 (2026-06-05)
EM guardrails: 2d $437.09/$462.09; 1w $415.91/$483.26
Support: $420.00 · $401.89
Resistance: $450.00 · $497.29
Structural: Support $420, $401.89; Resistance $450, $497.29; Max Pain pins $420 (2026-05-22), $400 (2026-05-29), $400 (2026-06-05); No gamma flip within 30%.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+77.9M

DEX: +97.4M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$77.9M, DEX +97.4M shares; no gamma flip observed within 30% below spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated relative to VIX (16.76); rich premium environment suitable for selling.

Term structure: Not provided; likely backwardation near monthly expiry due to event risk.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider short put spreads to capture premium decay into expiry.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$336M with call volume 1.2x put, indicating strong bullish flow despite put OI slightly higher.

Directional prints: 52.2 call 442.5 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol 9x OI, likely bought as upside momentum play. Prefer bought given high IV and large size. 60.3 call 452.5 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 6x OI, OTM call sweep. Suggests bullish positioning ahead of expiry. 73.3 call 720 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol 5.6x OI, long-dated far OTM call. Indicates speculative bullish bet.

Unusual: 128.9 put 245 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 20.7x OI, deep OTM put with huge IV. Likely sold for premium or hedge. Vol suggests bought but could be close. 72.9 put 372.5 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 16.9x OI, OTM put. Possible bearish hedge or directional sell. High IV suggests bought. 60.9 call 467.5 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 11.4x OI, OTM call. Large call purchase, bullish momentum.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot rallies through dealer gamma resistance and stays above $450.
!Volatility expansion from macro shock pushes IV higher.
!Gamma flip materializes if spot drops >30% (unlikely).

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-05 $425.00/$405.00 put spread
Why now: Spot above max pain, mixed flow, high IV favors defined-risk bearish.
Spot rallies above short strike; gamma near expiration.
Call credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-06-05 $485.00/$505.00 call spread
Why now: High IV, bearish lean, defined-risk credit sale.
Spot surges past short call; gamma/vega risk.
Iron condorModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-06-05 $405.00/$380.00 put wing and $505.00/$540.00 call wing
Why now: High IV, mixed flow, spot above max pain; premium decay.
Spot breaks wings; losses widen beyond short strikes.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-06-05 $425.00/$405.00 put spread
Buy $425/$405 put spread expiring 6/5, benefiting from spot decline.
Why this play: Best expresses bearish bias with defined risk, targets mean reversion to max pain ($420).
Debit: $4.91-$6.00
Max loss: $6.00
BE: $419.00
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks above $450; profit target $400.
Traders expecting downside from above max pain.
#2
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-05 $485.00/$505.00 call spread
Sell $485/$505 call spread, confidence in spot staying below $485.
Why this play: Alternative bearish play with higher strike, collects premium from elevated IV.
Credit: $3.94-$4.81
Max loss: $15.19
BE: $489.81
Mgmt: Close if spot nears $485 or IV drops significantly.
Traders preferring credit strategy with upside buffer.
#3
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-05 $405.00/$380.00 put wing and $505.00/$540.00 call wing
Sell $405/$380 puts and $505/$540 calls, profiting from stale price.
Why this play: Less direct bearish but captures premium decay; suited for range-bound thesis.
Credit: $7.27-$8.88
Max loss: $26.12
BE: 396.12 / 513.88
Mgmt: Adjust wings if spot breaks $405 or $505.
Traders expecting limited move despite high IV.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF AMD spot price is below $450.00 → Enter Bear Put Spread: Buy 2026-06-05 $425.00/$405.00 put spread at $4.91–$6.00
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF AMD spot price approaches $420.00 support → Consider rolling Bear Put Spread down or adding downside protection
Exit Triggers
EXITIF AMD spot price breaks above $450.00 → Exit Bear Put Spread position

Tactical Summary

AMD above max pain ($420) with bearish bias; resistance at $450. High IV favors defined-risk bearish strategies. Top play: Bear Put Spread (buy $425/$405 put spread) targeting mean reversion to $420. Invalidation at $450 breach.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.