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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $278.39EOD only

Max Pain

$240.00

Next expiry Apr 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$15.60

5.6% from close

Price Gap

-38.39

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.14

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 17, 2026 close

AMD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish-leaning: spot $270 (~10% above $240–$245 max-pain cluster) with dealers net short delta (78.7M shares) and positive GEX supporting pinning toward $240–$255 into near expiries; elevated IV and concentrated short-dated OI keep event risk high.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Dealer GEX and net-short dealer delta create pinning pressure; offset by spot distance from MPs and rich near-term IV.

Supports: Positive dealer GEX, put OI concentrated $240–$245, bullish premium flow.
Conflicts: Spot $270 sits ~10% above MPs; front-month IV elevated increasing downside tail risk.

📌GEX +$64.4M and dealer net-short delta 78.7M shares concentrated vs $240–$245 MPs — strong pinning pressure

⚠️Elevated front-month IV with kinks at near expiries — higher event risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs historical and vs market VIX; front-months are richest with event kinks.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime: meaningful positive GEX magnitude centered at $240–$245; gamma flip near ~$200 well below spot $270.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium flow has left dealers net short delta (78.7M shares) and short gamma, which supports pinning but risks rapid dealer re-hedging on sharp moves.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $270 is ~10% above max-pain $240–$245; that distance creates mean-reversion pressure but current dealer positioning resists immediate large downside.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Concentrated short-dated OI and dealer GEX around next expiries (4/24, 5/1) make this primarily a near-term pinning event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$243.95$305.95

Determined by front-month expiries (4/24, 5/1); sustained macro weakness could push toward gamma flip ~$200.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $250 (2026-04-24); $240 (2026-05-01); $245 (2026-05-08)

EM guardrails:

Support: $250.00 · $243.95

Resistance: $305.95

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,830 (27.3% below spot)

Structural: Max-pain cluster $245/$240; near-term support $245, secondary $240; resistance $305; gamma flip ~ $200.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+64.4M

DEX: +78.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,830 (27.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$64.4M; dealers net short delta 78.7M shares and short gamma NTM; gamma flip ~ $200 (far below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs market VIX — options costlier, raising premium for tail protection and making long vol expensive.

Term structure: Steep front-end with kinks at near expiries (4/24, 5/1) then decaying into longer-dated expiries, concentrating event risk short-dated.

Skew: Put-skew concentrated at $240–$245; opportunity to sell rich near-dated skew with strict hedge or buy targeted protection around expiries.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net debit paid by buyers (buyers paid more premium than sellers), implying directional buying pressure—calls dominate volume while put OI is slightly higher (P/C vol 0.65; P/C OI ~1.07).

Directional prints: 51.4 put 275 ITM 2026-04-24 — Very large Apr24 275 put flow (14.6k vol, 1.8k OI) — concentrated short-dated downside positioning; likely hedging or coordinated purchase of protection (preferred: put buys). 52.5 call 287.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — Large Apr24 287.5 call activity (7.4k vol) — short-dated upside exposure consistent with bullish pinning; likely call buys/rolls. 56.7 call 400 OTM 2026-07-17 — Sizeable Jul17 400 calls (3.1k vol) — longer-dated bullish directional/speculative positioning.

Unusual: 50.9 put 282.5 ITM 2026-04-24 — High vol/oi ratio (24.5) on Apr24 282.5 puts — aggressive, likely buyer-initiated trades. 64.2 call 335 OTM 2026-05-08 — May08 335 calls show elevated IV and vol (2.1k) — speculative directional buys or volatility-driven trades. 71.9 call 350 OTM 2026-04-24 — Apr24 350 calls with high IV spike (71.9) despite low last — targeted volatility/lottery buying.

Risks & Catalysts

!Macro shock or broad tech selloff overwhelming dealer pinning

!Front-month vol spike invalidating skew and increasing losses for short-vol positions

!Rapid drop toward gamma flip (~$200) forcing dealer re-hedging and amplifying moves

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-15 $270.00/$280.00 call spread Why now: Leans with concentrated call demand and dealer pinning toward 270–280; defined-risk limits short-vol exposure across earnings.	Front‑month vol spike around earnings can widen losses before pinning
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-08 $255.00/$250.00 put spread Why now: Short put premium capture favored by bullish pinning and heavy short‑dated put flow; defined risk if downside accelerates.	Dealer re‑hedging or macro shock could spike IV and push below strikes
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-08 $250.00/$240.00 put spread Why now: Dealers short delta and positive GEX support pinning; front-month put demand raises near-term premium making short spreads attractive.	Front-month vol spike or sharp downside move past spread short strike causing losses.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-15 $270.00/$280.00 call spread Why now: Calls show directional buying and IV is rich but less so out a week; defined debit limits risk while capturing upside toward 280–295.	IV can gap wider post-events making debit worse; rapid gap down hurts spread value.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-15 $250.00 cash-secured put Why now: Bullish pin toward 240–255 and concentrated short-dated flows make collecting premium at a lower strike attractive.	Macro shock or earnings miss driving stock well below strike forcing assignment.
Call diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-08 $295.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $280.00 call Why now: Front-month IV elevated and concentrated flows; calendar benefits if near-term IV mean-reverts while longer vol stays supported.	Short near-term vol spike or big gap up erodes calendar; requires IV term-structure to behave.

Top Plays

Short put spread 255/250 May8

Sell 2026-05-08 $255.00/$250.00 put spread

Sell May8 255/250 put spread to collect premium while dealers' short delta/GEX support lower-half pinning; defined loss if downside accelerates.

Why this play: Highest risk-adjusted edge from pinning into 240–255, tight defined risk and attractive credit vs short-dated put flow.

Credit: $1.24-$1.51

Max loss: $3.49

BE: $253.49

Mgmt: Close or roll if price breaches 250 or IV spikes; take full credit at expiration if pinned above 255.

Traders seeking income with limited risk and willing to manage event gamma.

Bull call spread May15 270/280

Buy 2026-05-15 $270.00/$280.00 call spread

Buy May15 270/280 call spread to participate in earnings-driven upside while limiting short-vol exposure.

Why this play: Directional upside play aligned with concentrated call demand and dealer pinning toward 270–280 with capped loss.

Debit: $4.39-$5.36

Max loss: $5.36

BE: $275.36

Mgmt: Trim or roll up on strong move; cut if stock drops below 250 or IV jumps materially.

Directional traders wanting defined-risk earnings exposure.

Call diagonal (May8/Jun18)

Sell 2026-05-08 $295.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $280.00 call

Sell May8 295 call vs buy Jun18 280 to harvest front-month premium and retain longer upside exposure.

Why this play: Plays anticipated near-term IV mean reversion while keeping longer convexity for upside continuation.

Debit: $13.41-$16.39

Max loss: $16.39

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Buy back short leg on IV spike or if price approaches 295; adjust long leg if trend strengthens.

Vol traders expecting front-month IV fade and sustained medium-term bullishness.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF AMD tradable premium for May8 255/250 put spread between $1.24–$1.51 AND spot between $250–$255 (pin window = 250–255) → THEN sell May8 255/250 put spread (defined risk); size so max loss ≤2× account risk unit; collect credit; record pre-trade front‑month IV

IFIF May15 270/280 call spread available for $4.39–$5.36 AND spot >265 → THEN buy May15 270/280 call spread sized ≤50% of put‑spread notional; scale-in up to 2 tranches as spot advances

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF front‑month IV rises ≥30% from pre-trade level OR rises ≥8 vol points OR mark‑to‑market loss on any short put spread >2× collected credit → THEN close short put spread(s) or roll down 5–10 strikes and out 1–2 expiries for net debit ≤1× collected credit; if rolling would cost >1× credit, close instead

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot >255 and remains >255 into May8 expiry (pin hold) → THEN let short May8 255/250 put spread expire worthless to keep full credit; otherwise exit per invalidation rules

EXITIF intraday move: spot falls ≥7% from yesterday's close AND reaches ≤210 OR spot ≤200 at any time (tail risk) → THEN immediately close all short‑vol/credit positions and reduce directional longs by 50% to limit tail risk

Tactical Summary

Bullish event bias: primary trade is defined‑risk short May8 255/250 put spread (pin window 250–255); hedge with limited May15 270/280 call spread. Manage by numeric IV and MTM rules above; exit on pin >255 into expiry or explicit tail‑risk thresholds.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.