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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $414.05EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$24.90
6.0% from close
Price Gap
+0.95
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
46
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.08
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
AMD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
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You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Outlook

AMD is in a high-vol pinning regime with dealer long gamma ($12.6M GEX) supporting spot towards $410 max pain for May 22. Positive GEX and alignment with flow favor a slightly bullish bias, but spot is 23% above May 15 MP ($342) and mixed flow limits conviction. Multi-week pinning likely keeps price in range with support at $381 and resistance at $450-$467.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 GEX positive (pinning) -1 spot far from MP +0.5 VIX 18 = 7.5
Supports: Positive GEX, dealer long gamma, pinning to May 22 MP ($410), high vol premium opportunity
Conflicts: Mixed flow, spot far from May 15 MP, high vol may induce sharp moves
📌GEX +$12.6M and pinning to $410 (May 22) may limit downside
⚠️Spot 23% above May 15 MP ($342), risk of sharp reversion to pin
📈High vol regime favors short vol strategies like call spreads

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV is elevated relative to 30-day HV, consistent with high vol regime driven by broader market (VIX 18.43) and AMD-specific moves.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive GEX of $12.6M with no nearby gamma flip supports price pinning, especially towards May 22 MP ($410).
Flow Regime
Mixed
Flow is mixed with neutral net premium, no clear directional bias from option volume.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot is above May 15 MP ($342) and near May 22 MP ($410), indicating intermediate mean reversion potential.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multiple max pain pins across weekly expiries ($342 May 15, $410 May 22, $380 May 29) indicate multi-week pinning dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$391.38$456.83
Pinning towards $410 max pain, positive GEX supports
Next 2 weeks
$381.05$467.15
Lower max pain for May 29 ($380) and broader range, resistance at $467

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $342 (2026-05-15); $410 (2026-05-22); $380 (2026-05-29)
EM guardrails: 1w $391.38/$456.83
Support: $381.05
Resistance: $450.00 · $467.15
Structural: Support: $381 (2w low); Resistance: $450, $467; Max pain pins: $342 (May 15), $410 (May 22), $380 (May 29)

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+12.6M

DEX: +109.0M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealer net long gamma ($+12.6M GEX) with 109M shares long DEX, indicating overall supportive positioning but no immediate flip risk.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is rich versus VIX as vol regime is high; may contract if volatility subsides.

Term structure: Term structure is likely upward sloping given multiple expiries; event kinks at weekly expiries (May 15, 22, 29).

Skew: Skew shows puts elevated relative to calls; consider a put ladder or calendar spread to capture volatility decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium of $280.7M with P/C vol ratio 0.86 (bullish) but OI ratio 1.06 (slight put bias).

Directional prints: 66.4 call 437.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol 6603, OI 217 (30.4x), IV 66.4%. Likely bought call (bullish) but could be hedge unwind. Prefer bought due to high ratio. 71.3 call 650 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol 3451, OI 166 (20.8x), IV 71.3%. Likely bought long-dated call (bullish) but could be sold. Prefer bought given OTM premium.

Unusual: 19.5 call 435 OTM 2026-05-15 — 0DTE OTM calls: vol 21992, OI 1714 (12.8x), IV 19.5%, last 0.01. Likely closing of short positions (bearish) but could be opening. Prefer closing. 27.3 call 440 OTM 2026-05-15 — 0DTE OTM calls: vol 20616, OI 2463 (8.4x), IV 27.3%, last 0.01. Similar to above, likely closing short calls. Bearish read. 98.6 put 255 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 10529, OI 379 (27.8x), IV 98.6%. Likely bought put (bearish) or hedging. Prefer speculative buy given low cost.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot far from May 15 MP could trigger sharp mean reversion
!Mixed flow limits directional conviction
!High vol may expand, increasing risk of breakouts beyond range

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Short strangleModerate
Sell 2026-06-12 $385.00 put + sell $490.00 call
Why now: Dealer gamma supports pinning; wings collect decay in low-conviction range
Unexpected breakout beyond 400-447.5 due to high vol
Bull call spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-06-12 $430.00/$475.00 call spread
Why now: Bullish bias from positive GEX and call flow; cap at 447.5
Spot fails to rally; premium decays; resistance cap
Long callWeak
Buy 2026-06-26 $460.00 call
Why now: Call flow and dealer gamma suggest upside; captures vol expansion
Time decay if range-bound; high IV premium paid

Top Plays

#1
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-06-12 $385.00 put + sell $490.00 call
Sell OTM put and call to collect theta and IV premium.
Why this play: Best for pinning regime; dealer gamma supports range.
Credit: $21.35-$26.10
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 358.90 / 516.10
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max gain or near expiration.
Traders expecting range-bound price with low conviction.
#2
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-12 $430.00/$475.00 call spread
Buy call spread to cap risk while expressing upside.
Why this play: Aligns with slight bullish bias and positive GEX.
Debit: $13.55-$16.56
Max loss: $16.56
BE: $446.56
Mgmt: Exit if price breaks below support $381.
Slightly bullish traders seeking defined risk.
#3
Long Call
Buy 2026-06-26 $460.00 call
Buy OTM call for unlimited upside potential.
Why this play: Captures upside if vol expands and breakout occurs.
Debit: $21.02-$25.69
Max loss: $25.69
BE: $485.69
Mgmt: Stop loss at $381 invalidation level.
Aggressive traders expecting significant upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf AMD holds above $381 support and below $450 resistance → Enter short strangle: sell 2026-06-12 $385 put and sell $490 call
IFIf AMD pulls back to $381 support and holds → Enter bull call spread: buy 2026-06-12 $430/$475 call spread
Exit Triggers
EXITIf AMD breaks below $381 or above $467 → Close short strangle to limit loss
EXITIf AMD loses $381 support → Exit long call

Tactical Summary

Multi-week pinning with dealer gamma supports range-bound bias; key support $381, resistance $450-$467. Top play: Short Strangle to collect theta while price stays within range.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.