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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $278.26EOD only

Max Pain

$230.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.05

2.5% from close

Price Gap

-48.26

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.11

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 16, 2026 close

AMD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Modestly bullish but conditional: dealers are net long gamma which supports chop and upside if buy-flow continues, yet max-pain sits far below spot (~19%); that distance weakens pin-driven upside and raises gap/down risk, so expect measured drift toward upper range (~$280–$292) rather than a clean run to $294 absent compression of IV or short-covering events.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Raised by positive GEX/flow; trimmed for MP distance and elevated IV making pin fragile and downside gaps more probable.

Supports: Dealer long-gamma, ongoing call-buying, short-term dealer hedging can lift spot in calm conditions.
Conflicts: Max-pain ~19% below spot reduces effective pinning; elevated IV increases probability of gap-downs and caps aggressive long exposure.

📈GEX positive — supports chop and modest upside if flow persists

📌Max-pain materially below spot (~19%), so pinning is weak for near-the-money upside

⚠️Elevated IV means gap risk can flip dealer hedges and bias quickly

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs history (VIX~17) — option premia rich, raising cost of directional longs.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Dealers net long gamma near spot but gamma flip well below (~$200); long-gamma cushions small moves but offers limited protection versus large gap moves down.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net bullish premium flow (call buys/put sells) causing dealers to buy delta intraday; effectiveness depends on continued flow and IV compression.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ~19% above MP: distance reduces pinning strength and increases tail-gap vulnerability; pin unlikely to prevent a significant sell-off.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained positive flow and dealer gamma support a multi-week drift, but persistent IV and MP distance keep bias conditional.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$262.79$293.99

Target $272–$292 if flow continues; else range-bound with downside gaps to $240–$255 possible

Next 2 weeks

$255.89$300.89

Broader target $260–$300; watch IV compression and any short-covering events for clean upside

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $232 (2026-04-17); $240 (2026-04-24); $235 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails: 1w $262.79/$293.99

Support: $255.89

Resistance: $300.89

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 28,406 (28.2% below spot)

Structural: Max pain cluster: $232–$240 (well below spot); immediate structural support $255.9; near resistance $293–$300; gamma flip ≈$200.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+90.3M

DEX: +89.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 28,406 (28.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX ≈ +$90M; DEX ≈ +89.6M shares long; dealers buy delta to hedge sold premium — effective for intraday drift but vulnerable to rapid IV spikes or gap-downs that invert hedging.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX and sector — costly to buy outright vol; favors credit or hedged structures unless expecting a dispersion event.

Term structure: Front-month elevated with weekly kinks at option expiries and max-pain dates; roll-down across 2–6 weeks if no shocks.

Skew: Steep skew from put-heavy OI below spot; opportunity to sell OTM puts or fund call spreads, but be mindful of gap risk and IV-rich premiums.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium shows a large inflow with P/C volume ~0.5; overall flow leans bullish due to heavy call accumulation, while notable put activity appears more consistent with hedging/structured/tail protection than outright bearish directional exposure.

Directional prints: 5.9 call 280 OTM 2026-04-17 — 95.7k vol vs 8.7k OI (vol/oi 10.9). Short-dated, high vol/oi call activity—preferred read: aggressive call buys or rollups pushing near-term upside. 53.4 call 325 OTM 2026-05-01 — 4.4k vol vs 281 OI (vol/oi 15.6). Institutional-sized call accumulation into May indicating directional bullish exposure. 47.7 put 280 ITM 2026-04-24 — ~3k vol vs 337 OI (vol/oi 8.9). Elevated short-dated puts that read more like hedges or protective buys rather than primary bearish bets.

Unusual: 56.1 call 290 OTM 2026-05-29 — 2.2k vol vs 136 OI (vol/oi 16.5) — longer-dated call accumulation, directional. 93.6 put 170 OTM 2026-05-01 — 6.1k vol vs 899 OI (vol/oi 6.8) — deep OTM put activity consistent with tail protection or structured flow rather than pure bearish positioning.

Risks & Catalysts

!Sharp vol spike flipping dealer hedges and producing gap-downs

!Pin-to-MP ineffective due to distance — large institutional sell can break support

!Adverse stock-specific news (earnings/guidance) widening IV and invalidating drift thesis

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 $260.00/$250.00 put spread Why now: Leans bullish, collect premium at lower strikes; defined wings protect vs sharp vol spikes around news.	Rapid vol spike or big institutional sell can blow past short leg.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-15 $280.00/$290.00 call spread Why now: Buy convexity into measured drift while funding some premium by selling nearer out-of-the-money call.	IV rise or gap-down reduces call value; limited upside if momentum stalls.
Cash-secured put	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-22 $255.00 cash-secured put Why now: Moderately bullish; sell put at attractive credit with margin to earnings, expirations post-earnings.	Gap-down through strike or IV spike increases assignment risk and mark-to-market loss.
Call diagonal	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-08 $300.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $280.00 call Why now: Flow shows heavy short-dated call buying; calendar collects theta and keeps multi-week exposure past earnings.	Front-month IV reprices higher or big upside pop hurting short leg; vega exposure across terms.

Top Plays

Measured upside: 280/290 bull call spread

Buy 2026-05-15 $280.00/$290.00 call spread

Long-dated call spread to capture a measured move toward $280–$292 with defined risk and limited capital at stake.

Why this play: Expresses convex upside while capping cost—aligns with expected drift to upper range without needing IV compression.

Debit: $3.76-$4.59

Max loss: $4.59

BE: $284.59

Mgmt: Trim or roll if spot approaches $288–290; cut if break below invalidation 255.89 or vol spikes sharply.

Traders wanting directional upside with limited downside and defined max loss.

Income with protection: 260/250 put credit spread

Sell 2026-05-15 $260.00/$250.00 put spread

Sell vertical to harvest premium while retaining defined wings to survive post-earnings volatility or hedger pin risk.

Why this play: Collects premium at lower strikes and limits tail risk versus selling naked puts given gap/down risk.

Credit: $2.63-$3.22

Max loss: $6.78

BE: $256.78

Mgmt: Close or widen if underlying trades toward 255.89; defend if rapid vol-driven moves occur.

Income traders seeking modest bullish exposure with managed downside.

Theta capture: short-dated call / long further call diagonal

Sell 2026-05-08 $300.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $280.00 call

Sell short-dated calls, buy longer-dated calls to monetize front-month demand and extend directional exposure.

Why this play: Plays heavy short-dated call flow—collects near-term theta while keeping multi-week upside exposure.

Debit: $15.43-$18.86

Max loss: $18.86

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Roll short legs monthly; reduce if buy-flow evaporates or IV compresses.

Traders wanting multi-week exposure while harvesting short-term premium.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF AMD drifts into ~280–288 with no sharp vol spike and bias intact → THEN buy the 2026-05-15 280/290 bull call spread (s2) within its quoted entry_range; position size so max loss ≤ 1% of portfolio capital per trade

IFIF AMD pulls back toward 258–256 or tags 255.89 support → THEN sell the 2026-05-15 260/250 put credit spread (s1) within its quoted entry_range; size so max assigned/defined-risk loss ≤ 1% of portfolio capital per trade

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF spot trades to ~288–290 or front-month IV compresses → THEN take partial profits on s2 (trim 25–50%) at those levels; if s1 shows stress (spot near short put or IV spike) roll the short put down 10–20 pts and widen the spread to a 10–20‑pt width, keeping incremental risk capped at ≤50% of the original premium received

Exit Triggers

EXITIF AMD breaks and closes below 255.89 or a sharp vol spike occurs → THEN cut/lift all bullish spreads and close the put credit spread (s1) to stop further loss

Tactical Summary

Modestly bullish multi‑week bias: target upside with defined‑risk bull call spread (s2) and opportunistic short put credit (s1) on pullbacks. Use strict sizing: max loss per trade ≤1% of portfolio; use partial trims and defined roll rules to limit added risk; respect 255.89 invalidation and exit on sharp IV spikes.

Read the Directional analysis for AMD for 2026-04-17. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.