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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $246.83EOD only

Max Pain

$220.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$11.05

4.5% from close

Price Gap

-26.83

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.08

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 13, 2026 close

AMD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-slightly-bullish with a pinning magnet between $240–$250; confidence: 7.5/10 (base). Primary drivers: large positive GEX +$77.9M concentrated at $250/$245 and heavy call net premium ($51.9M at $250) creating upside magnet while MP sits at $220 (structural weak downside). Conflict: spot is 12.2% above MP which limits conviction for a sustained rally and IV is elevated (Avg IV 62%) making short-premium attractive but risk of trend moves exists.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 7.5/10 per pre-compute; +pinning GEX concentration at $250/$245, +large net premium $106.2M favor range/mean reversion; negative factor: spot 12.2% above MP ($220) and IV elevated (Avg IV 62%).

Supports: GEX concentrations at $245 (+$3.4M) and $240 (+$3.6M) plus heavy put OI at $200 create a short-term floor; net premium flow is call-heavy at $250.
Conflicts: Max Pain $220 across expirations vs spot $246.83 (12.2% gap); VIX 19.12 and elevated Avg IV 62% can reprice quickly if macro turns.

📌GEX pinning: +$15.3M at $250 and +$3.4M at $245 — near-term magnet inside expected move

⚖️Wide IV term structure (near 48.7% → mid-May 56.8%) favors selling nearer-term vs buying mid-dated protection

🧱Max pain flat at $220 — structural down-side remains and supports put-floor $140–$200 for long-dated hedges

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Vol: High — Avg IV 62.0% well above VIX 19.12; option premiums are rich, favor defined-risk short premium where dealer gamma supports pinning.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma: Pinning — Total GEX +$77.9M concentrated at $250 (+$15.3M) and $245 (+$3.4M); dealers will hedge toward those strikes, creating mean-reversion pressure.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow: Mixed — Net premium +$106.2M with heavy call premium at $250 ($51.95M) indicating bullish positioning but P/C ratios ~0.93/1.08 show balanced put OI support below.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot vs MP: Above — spot $246.83 is 12.2% above MP $220, meaning dealer pinning may be short-term; larger structural pressure remains below.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentration persist across the next several expirations (GEX concentrated at the same strikes; MP flat at $220 across expirations), and IV term structure shows elevated mid-dates — favors 30–45 DTE positioning with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$224.18$269.48

Sustained hold above $245 keeps dealers hedging short-delta calls; break below $240 would weaken pin and accelerate hedging away from spot.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $220 (2026-04-17); $220 (2026-04-24); $220 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails:

Support: $240.00 · $245.00 · $230.00

Resistance: $250.00 · $255.00 · $260.00

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,125 (19.0% below spot)

Structural: Structural put floor $140–$200; large long-dated put interest below $200 is where durable downside protection and term-structure hedges belong.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+77.9M

DEX: +77.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,125 (19.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net positive near-the-money gamma: concentrated positive GEX at $250 (+$15.3M), $245 (+$3.4M) and $240 (+$3.6M) will cause dealers to buy shares if spot drops toward those strikes and sell into strength above them; a ±2% move (~$241.86 / $251.77) will increase dealer hedging toward the nearest magnet (down move → dealers buy to cover puts, up move → dealers sell calls).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 62.0% vs VIX 19.12 — options are rich relative to index vol; premium selling has a volatility edge if you manage tail risk.

Term structure: Upward slope into mid-May: 4/17 ATM 48.7% → 5/08 56.8% (kink) → 5/29 55.0%; mid-month expiries are richer, signaling event or convexity demand.

Skew: Notable overpriced mid-dated vols around 5/08–5/22 (~56%); calendar/diagonal plays selling those higher-IV mid-dated legs can extract vol premium (sell higher-IV leg and buy lower-IV leg).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $106.2M (call-dominant; largest at $250 with net $51,948,095)

Directional prints: 47.8 call 255 OTM 2026-04-17 — Heavy trade: AMD260417C00255000 vol 14,465 vs OI 2,306 (6.3x) — could be bought calls or spreads; consistent with call-net premium and GEX pin at $250 (more likely bought call accumulation or dealers selling calls). 49 put 242.5 OTM 2026-04-17 — AMD260417P00242500 vol 6,417 vs OI 1,068 (6.0x) — short-dated protective put activity; could be buyers of protection (more consistent with mixed flow).

Unusual: 47.8 call 255 OTM 2026-04-17 — Largest single premium flow at $255 (14,465 vol); directional prints favor call buys or call spreads and align with GEX pin to $250.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near ~$200 would remove dealer pinning support and allow downside acceleration toward structural put floor $140–$200.

!Flat Max Pain $220 across expirations creates structural downside if macro catalysts hit — a large sell-off would reprice long-dated IV rapidly.

!Elevated Avg IV 62% and concentrated call exposure at $250 risk a sharp unwind if market breadth turns; VIX jumps >25 would blow out short-premium setups.

!Earnings 2026-05-05 (~3 weeks) can kink mid-May IV and invalidate multi-week range if results surprise materially.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at spot $246.83	12%+ gap to MP $220 and earnings in 3 weeks create asymmetric downside.
Short stock	Weak	Do not short into positive GEX pinning and strong call flow	Dealer buying into weakness and large call accumulation make short gamma costly.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock and sell 2026-04-24 255 call (or 2026-04-17 255 for tactical)	Call-heavy flow at $250/$255 could cap upside; assignment at earnings risk.
Cash-secured put (CSP)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-29 240 put (30–46 DTE preferred)	Downside gap to MP $220 and earnings; requires cash reserve to take assignment.
Short put spread (defined risk)	Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 245/240 put spread (weekly tactical)	Break below $240 accelerates dealer hedging; earnings/macro can widen losses.
Bear put spread (directional)	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-29 260/250 put spread	Expensive long-dated IV; requires meaningful trend down to pay off.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 230/225 put x 255/260 call iron condor	VIX spike or break of $240/$255 wings causes rapid mark-to-market losses.
Calendar / Diagonal (vol arbitrage)	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 240 put, buy 2026-04-17 240 put (reverse calendar — sold longer-dated IV 55.0% and bought near-term IV 48.7%)	Selling the higher-IV long-dated leg concentrates vega exposure; requires active management and willingness to manage assignment/rolls.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 LEAP 230 call, sell 2026-04-24 255 call covered (collector overlay)	Requires owning stock or synthetic; term premium paid for long-dated optionality.

Top Plays

Defined short put spread (tactical weekly)

Sell 2026-04-17 245/240 put spread

High edge because of pinning at $245–$250, positive GEX (+$3.4M at $245) and rich near-term IV; defined risk below the $240 support.

Credit: $0.85-$1.10

Max loss: $4.15

BE: $244.15

Mgmt: Take 60% of max profit at 30% of life; cut if spot < $240 or VIX > 25.

Traders seeking tactical income with defined risk during the pin.

Iron condor (multi-week)

Sell 2026-04-24 230/225 put x 255/260 call iron condor

Fits multi-week thesis: sells elevated mid-dated IV where GEX supports $240–$250; wings placed outside primary dealer magnets ($230 downside, $260 upside).

Credit: $1.20-$1.70

Max loss: $3.80

BE: Lower: 230 - credit; Upper: 260 + credit

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit after 30% time decay; hedge or widen if spot breaks $240 or clears $255.

Accounts wanting higher credit while capping tail risk over the next 11 days to 2 weeks.

CSP / medium-dated buying opportunity

Sell 2026-05-29 240 put cash-secured

30–46 DTE trade that collects rich long-dated premium (ATM mid-May IV ~55%) and matches multi-week thesis; if assigned you obtain shares nearer structural support for less than spot.

Credit: $4.50-$6.00

Max loss: 240 strike less premium

BE: $235.50

Mgmt: Close if spot < $230 or IV spikes > +6pt; buy back at 60% of max profit or roll down to 230/220 if assignment risk.

Buy-and-hold accounts or those willing to own AMD at ~240.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $245.00 and holds for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-17 245/240 put spread

IFIf spot rallies and prints $250.00 intraday (clears $250 by >15 minutes) → Sell 2026-04-24 255/260 call spread or reduce long exposure near $255

IFIf IV (30d ATM) spikes above 58% → Sell 2026-04-24 iron condor 230/225 x 255/260 to harvest premium

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot falls below $240.00 → Buy protection: purchase 2026-04-24 230 put or roll 245/240 short put spread down to 240/235

ADJIf spot climbs above $255.00 and holds → Take profits on short-call legs; roll upside wing to 260/265 or close iron condor calls

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX > 25 and spot < $242.00 → Exit all short premium positions immediately

EXITIf the 2026-05-05 earnings implied vol rises >8 vol points vs today → Close/reduce unhedged short-dated positions and shift to defined-risk diagonals

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: short premium / defined-risk credit strategies around the dealer pin ($245–$250) for multi-week edge; invalidate bias if spot decisively breaks below $240 (accelerates dealer buying into weakness) or clears/resets above $255 (call selling necessary). Top plays: 1) weekly 245/240 put spread for tactical income, 2) 4/24 iron condor 230/225×255/260 for multi-week credit, 3) 5/29 240 CSP for durable premium and optional share acquisition.

Read the Directional analysis for AMD for 2026-04-13. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.