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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $255.07EOD only

Max Pain

$220.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$10.20

4.0% from close

Price Gap

-35.07

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.09

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 14, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 14, 2026 close

AMD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term pin toward the 250–260 zone; confidence 7.5/10. Primary supports: large positive GEX +$93.0M concentrated at 250/255/260, heavy net premium inflow $179.4M and call-dominant premium at 250/$38.2M; conflicts: max-pain cluster at $220 (15.9% below spot) and spot 15.9% above MP which limits conviction for sustained upside.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 7.5 from pre-computed: + GEX/flow alignment, + pinning; I accept it — no single catalyst or cross-asset signal warrants override.

Supports: GEX +$93.0M concentrated at $250/$255/$260; Net premium +$179.4M with $25.4M call net at $250; Avg IV 62.4% vs VIX 18.36.
Conflicts: Max pain pins $220–$225 across expiries (structural pull), spot 255.07 is 15.9% above MP; EM guardrails show two-day downside into $244.87 which is within reach.

📌**Pinning:** strong GEX magnets at $250/$255/$260 imply dealers will hedge into moves near current spot

🟢**Bullish institutional flow:** heavy call premium at $250/$260 ($38.2M/$21.0M) supports upside pressure

⚠️**Structural drag:** persistent max-pain ~ $220 creates asymmetric downside tail despite current pinning

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV regime (Avg IV 62.4%) — option premiums are rich vs realized/VIX context, making premium-selling attractive if dealer gamma supports pinning.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: Total GEX +$93.0M with concentrated NTM gamma at $250 (+$14.0M), $255 (+$6.6M) and $260 (+$11.2M) — dealers will buy on dips toward those strikes and sell into rallies near them.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow: Net premium +$179.4M and call-heavy premium at $250/$260; P/C volume 0.77 and P/C OI 1.09 indicate flow skewed toward calls but OI shows large protective puts deeper (200/190).

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $255.07 sits well above MP cluster at $220–$225 (15.9%); pinning reduces immediate drift but structural max pain remains a medium-term gravitational pull.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning concentrated across the next two expirations and elevated IV term structure through May (ATM 51–57%); regime persists across 2–4 week window so prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$244.87$265.27

Dealer hedging at $250/$255/$260 will buy dips into ~$245 and sell into rallies above ~$260; breach below $244.87 opens momentum to $237.55.

Next 1 week

$237.55$272.60

Sustained call premium and net inflow can stretch to $272.60; failure below $237.55 would flip bias toward MP $225–$220.

Next 2 weeks

$232.30$277.85

Term IV and GEX concentration keep moves mean-reverting into the pin; move beyond $277.85 requires sustained call demand or macro upside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $220 (2026-04-17); $225 (2026-04-24); $220 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails: 2d $244.87/$265.27; 1w $237.55/$272.60

Support: $244.87 · $237.55 · $232.30

Resistance: $265.27 · $272.60 · $277.85

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,969 (21.6% below spot)

Structural: Structural put floor $140–$200 beneath the gamma flip near ~$200 — large long-dated put/OI cushions heavy downside and signals big protection interest below $200.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+93.0M

DEX: +81.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,969 (21.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term positive gamma concentration: heavy dealer long-gamma centered at $250 (+$14.0M), $255 (+$6.6M) and $260 (+$11.2M); if spot falls 2% (~$249), dealers will buy stock/puts (support); if spot rises 2% (~$260), dealers will sell stock/calls (resistance) — both actions reinforce pinning between $250–$260 until expiries.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 62.4% is rich vs VIX 18.36 — sector/stock vol is elevated; options are expensive enough to favor selling premium with defined risk when gamma supports it.

Term structure: Front-month skewed: 4/17 ATM 48.6% → 5/29 ATM 53.4% (term steepening into May), with a hump at 5/08 (57.2%) suggesting event or realized vol priced through early May.

Skew: Short-dated IV (~48–51%) cheaper than 24–45d (53–57%); calendar/diagonal where you SELL the higher-IV longer-dated leg (reverse calendar) can capture term premium (approx 2–6 vol-pt edge).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $179.4M call-biased net premium; P/C vol 0.77, P/C OI 1.09.

Directional prints: 48.4 put 252.5 OTM 4/17 — AMD260417P00252500 — elevated vol prints (Vol 2,766 vs OI 318) at $252.50 exp 4/17; could be short protection selling or buyer of protection; within current flow regime most consistent with short-dated put buying to hedge directional call exposure (buy interpretation favored). 49.3 put 250 OTM 4/17 — AMD260417P00250000 — large flow/volume at $250 exp 4/17 (Vol 11,929 OI 3,030) aligns with dealer hedging and pinning at $250; bought-protection or sell-to-open put spreads both possible, but net flow and dealer GEX imply buyers accumulating protection (buy interpretation slightly favored).

Unusual: 96.1 put 140 OTM 5/01 — AMD260501P00140000 — long-dated deep OTM put prints (Vol 989 vs OI 107) indicate crash protection demand or speculative long-vol; structural tail hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip sits near ~$200 — a forced unwind past $200 accelerates downside but is remote from spot.

!Front-week expiries (4/17 and 4/24) create pin-release risk that can produce whiplash if large buyers/sellers step aside.

!IV term hump into 5/08 (57.2%) suggests event risk — possible realized vol spike around early May (earnings 2026-05-05 is close).

!Macro risk: broad-market reversal (QQQ/SPY weakening) can flush dealers and break pin despite positive GEX.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy 100 shares AMD at $255.07	Exposure to mean-reversion toward MP $220; high IV makes covered alternatives preferable.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid — gamma pinning and dealer long-gamma bias create asymmetric costs to shorting here	Dealer buying on dips will push against shorts into $250–$260.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy 100 shares + Sell 4/24 $260 call	Caps upside near dealer call concentration; exposed to >$260 rallies.
Cash-secured put (CSP)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/24 $245 put cash-secured	If gamma flip forces sharp gap down past $244.87/EM, assignment risk rises.
Short put spread	Strong	Sell 4/24 $245/$240 put spread	Breaks below $244.87 then $237.55 widen losses; defined risk protects vs tail.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 4/24 $260 call	High front IV and dealer call selling compress option returns; expensive relative to buying longer-dated calls.
Long put / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 4/24 $240 put or buy 4/24 $250/$240 bear-put spread (if directional bearish)	Costly given high IV and positive GEX reduces trend continuation likelihood.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/24 $240/$230 put side + sell $270/$280 call side (defined-risk IC)	IV spike or a sustained move through EM bounds ($237.55 or $272.60) will blow wings.
Calendar / Diagonal (reverse calendar)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/29 $250 call, buy 4/24 $250 call (reverse calendar — sell higher-IV longer-dated leg)	Requires time decay and stability; front- vs back-IV dynamics must hold (5/29 ATM 53.4% > 4/24 ATM 49.9%).
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 5/29 $230 call, sell 4/24 $250 call (diagonal/covered call replacement)	Complex gamma; needs range-bound to consolidate toward sold strike; long-dated IV elevated making base-cost higher.

Top Plays

Defined-risk put spread (tactical)

Sell 4/24 $245/$240 put spread

High-edge trade: positive GEX and dealer bid into dips support $245; collects rich front-week premiums while capping risk below EM guardrail $244.87.

Credit: $0.35-$0.60

Max loss: $4.65

BE: $244.65

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot < $244.87 or IV jumps >6 vols.

Traders wanting defined-risk short premium with multi-week horizon

Reverse calendar (term arbitrage)

Sell 5/29 $250 call, buy 4/24 $250 call (reverse calendar)

Sell the higher-IV longer-dated leg (5/29 ATM 53.4%) and buy cheaper front-month to capture term premium while remaining short-dated gamma-light.

Credit: $0.40-$1.20

Max loss: Variable

Mgmt: Close if front-month IV decays < back-month IV by <1 vol-pt or spot moves > EM bounds ($237.55 or $272.60).

Vol sellers who can monitor cross-term vol moves; suits accounts preferring limited directional exposure with multi-week bias

Iron condor (defined-risk range trade)

Sell 4/24 $240/$230 put spread + Sell 4/24 $270/$280 call spread

Uses positive GEX and low VIX (18.36) to sell both sides inside EM $237.55–$272.60; wide wings protect vs expected move while collecting elevated premiums.

Credit: $1.10-$2.50

Max loss: $8.90

BE: $232.90/$282.50

Mgmt: Trim or buy back at 50–60% profit; hedge quickly if spot breaks $237.55 or $272.60.

Accounts seeking neutral income with defined risk and margin for larger accounts

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot holds >= $250.00 for 30 minutes after market open → Sell 4/24 $245/$240 put spread

IFIf spot rallies to and rejects at $260.00 (within 1 hour) → Establish 4/24 iron condor: sell $240/$230 put spread + sell $270/$280 call spread

IFIf 5/29 ATM IV > 4/24 ATM IV by >=3 vol-pts (currently ~3.5–4.5 pts) → Initiate reverse calendar: sell 5/29 $250 call, buy 4/24 $250 call

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot falls and tags $244.87 EM guardrail → Roll short $245 puts down to 4/24 $240/$235 put spread or buy protection $240 put

ADJIf spot breaks above $272.60 (1-week EM upper) → Buy back call side of iron condor and convert to long call or debit call spread (e.g., buy $270 call, sell $285 call if liquidity permits)

Exit Triggers

EXITIf P/L reaches 50–70% of max profit on short put spread or iron condor → Close 50–100% of position to lock gains

EXITIf VIX rises > 6 points intraday or spot < $237.55 → Exit all short premium positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: short-to-defined-risk premium selling with bullish pin bias into $250–$260 supported by GEX and call flow; invalidation: sustained break below $244.87 then $237.55 flips regime to bearish and requires cutting short-premium. Top plays: sell 4/24 $245/$240 put spread (defined risk), reverse calendar (sell 5/29 $250 call, buy 4/24 $250 call) for term arbitrage, and a wide iron condor 4/24 ($240/$230 put x $270/$280 call) for income — choose based on capital, monitoring capacity, and existing stock exposure.

Read the Directional analysis for AMD for 2026-04-14. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.