AMD
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $518.09EOD onlyThis page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
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You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.
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Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term pin toward the 250–260 zone; confidence 7.5/10. Primary supports: large positive GEX +$93.0M concentrated at 250/255/260, heavy net premium inflow $179.4M and call-dominant premium at 250/$38.2M; conflicts: max-pain cluster at $220 (15.9% below spot) and spot 15.9% above MP which limits conviction for sustained upside.
Conflicts: Max pain pins $220–$225 across expiries (structural pull), spot 255.07 is 15.9% above MP; EM guardrails show two-day downside into $244.87 which is within reach.
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $+93.0M
DEX: +81.2M shares
Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,969 (21.6% below spot))
NTM gamma: Near-term positive gamma concentration: heavy dealer long-gamma centered at $250 (+$14.0M), $255 (+$6.6M) and $260 (+$11.2M); if spot falls 2% (~$249), dealers will buy stock/puts (support); if spot rises 2% (~$260), dealers will sell stock/calls (resistance) — both actions reinforce pinning between $250–$260 until expiries.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: Avg IV 62.4% is rich vs VIX 18.36 — sector/stock vol is elevated; options are expensive enough to favor selling premium with defined risk when gamma supports it.
Term structure: Front-month skewed: 4/17 ATM 48.6% → 5/29 ATM 53.4% (term steepening into May), with a hump at 5/08 (57.2%) suggesting event or realized vol priced through early May.
Skew: Short-dated IV (~48–51%) cheaper than 24–45d (53–57%); calendar/diagonal where you SELL the higher-IV longer-dated leg (reverse calendar) can capture term premium (approx 2–6 vol-pt edge).
Flow Analysis
Net premium: + $179.4M call-biased net premium; P/C vol 0.77, P/C OI 1.09.
Directional prints: 48.4 put 252.5 OTM 4/17 — AMD260417P00252500 — elevated vol prints (Vol 2,766 vs OI 318) at $252.50 exp 4/17; could be short protection selling or buyer of protection; within current flow regime most consistent with short-dated put buying to hedge directional call exposure (buy interpretation favored). 49.3 put 250 OTM 4/17 — AMD260417P00250000 — large flow/volume at $250 exp 4/17 (Vol 11,929 OI 3,030) aligns with dealer hedging and pinning at $250; bought-protection or sell-to-open put spreads both possible, but net flow and dealer GEX imply buyers accumulating protection (buy interpretation slightly favored).
Unusual: 96.1 put 140 OTM 5/01 — AMD260501P00140000 — long-dated deep OTM put prints (Vol 989 vs OI 107) indicate crash protection demand or speculative long-vol; structural tail hedge.
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long stock | Moderate-Weak | Buy 100 shares AMD at $255.07 | Exposure to mean-reversion toward MP $220; high IV makes covered alternatives preferable. |
| Short stock | Weak | Avoid — gamma pinning and dealer long-gamma bias create asymmetric costs to shorting here | Dealer buying on dips will push against shorts into $250–$260. |
| Covered call | Moderate | Buy 100 shares + Sell 4/24 $260 call | Caps upside near dealer call concentration; exposed to >$260 rallies. |
| Cash-secured put (CSP) | Moderate-Strong | Sell 4/24 $245 put cash-secured | If gamma flip forces sharp gap down past $244.87/EM, assignment risk rises. |
| Short put spread | Strong | Sell 4/24 $245/$240 put spread | Breaks below $244.87 then $237.55 widen losses; defined risk protects vs tail. |
| Long calls | Moderate-Weak | Buy 4/24 $260 call | High front IV and dealer call selling compress option returns; expensive relative to buying longer-dated calls. |
| Long put / bear put spread | Moderate | Buy 4/24 $240 put or buy 4/24 $250/$240 bear-put spread (if directional bearish) | Costly given high IV and positive GEX reduces trend continuation likelihood. |
| Iron condor | Moderate-Strong | Sell 4/24 $240/$230 put side + sell $270/$280 call side (defined-risk IC) | IV spike or a sustained move through EM bounds ($237.55 or $272.60) will blow wings. |
| Calendar / Diagonal (reverse calendar) | Moderate-Strong | Sell 5/29 $250 call, buy 4/24 $250 call (reverse calendar — sell higher-IV longer-dated leg) | Requires time decay and stability; front- vs back-IV dynamics must hold (5/29 ATM 53.4% > 4/24 ATM 49.9%). |
| PMCC / LEAPS diagonal | Moderate | Buy 5/29 $230 call, sell 4/24 $250 call (diagonal/covered call replacement) | Complex gamma; needs range-bound to consolidate toward sold strike; long-dated IV elevated making base-cost higher. |
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Tactical Summary
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