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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $510.13EOD only
Max Pain
$485.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$34.35
6.7% from close
Price Gap
-25.13
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
77
High premium
P/C OI
1.10
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 1, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 1, 2026 close
AMD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026
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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term pin to $245 and an upside range to $258.76; Confidence: 7.0/10 (base). Strongest supporting signals: large positive GEX +$228.3M concentrated at $245 (pin magnet) and heavy net bullish premium flow +$245.2M with big call premium at $250/$260; conflict: spot is 11.4% above structural max pain (~$220) which limits long-term upside.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 7.0 from pre-computed: +GEX pinning and bullish net premium; no imminent catalyst found to override; downside structural MP distance noted.
Supports: GEX +$127.2M concentrated at $245, additional GEX at $240/$242.50, large call premium flows at $250/$260
Conflicts: Spot 11.4% above MP $220 (mean-reversion risk), very high ATM IV 64.3% (priced for event/vol), and gamma flip ~ $200 far below spot
📌**$245** is a strong dealer pin (GEX +$127.2M at $245) — expect pinning and skewed hedging
📈Net premium +$245.2M and concentrated call premium at $250/$260 — flow is structurally bullish
⚠️IV elevated (ATM avg IV 64.3% vs short-dated 5.6%/7d 50.7%) — expensive to buy vol, favors selling premium if comfortable with gamma

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Vol: High — ATM avg IV 64.3% with 7–35d ATM in the 50–60% band; priced for significant two-week moves (EM ±5.6%–8.1%).
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Gamma: Pinning — strong near-term positive GEX concentrated at $245/$240/$250 produces dealer hedging that pins spot and compresses movement inside EM bounds; flip is far at ~$200 so dealers remain short spot convexity above that.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Flow: Bullish — net premium +$245.2M, heavy call premium at $210/$220/$250/$260 and P/C vol 0.64 indicates institutional call buying and skewed directional flow toward higher strikes.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above MP — current spot $245.04 is materially above persistent max pain ~ $220, creating tension between dealer pin at $245 and structural mean reversion to $220.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentrations repeat across near expirations (127.2M at $245 plus other magnets) and IV term structure remains elevated for 2–6 weeks (7–35d ATM 50–59%), supporting a 30–45 DTE horizon with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$231.31$258.76
Dealer hedging concentrated at $245 will keep spot stuck unless a large sweep breaks the magnet.
Next 2 weeks
$225.26$264.81
Bullish premium flow (calls at $250/$260) and positive GEX support moves up; failure below $240 expands downside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $220 (2026-04-10); $215 (2026-04-17); $220 (2026-04-24)
EM guardrails: 1w $231.31/$258.76
Support: $240.00 · $242.50 · $235.00
Resistance: $250.00 · $255.00 · $260.00
Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,429 (18.4% below spot)
Structural: Structural put floor $140–$200 creates long-term tail support; multi-month resistance cluster $260–$310 caps aggressive upside positioning.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+228.3M

DEX: +84.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,429 (18.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM gamma concentrated long dealer hedges at $245 (+$127.2M) and $240/+11.5M at $250 producing a pin; if spot drops ~2% (~$240) dealers would buy to cover puts and add pin pressure; if spot rallies ~+2% (~$250) dealers sell into strength but net positive GEX dampens large moves (less acceleration).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: ATM avg IV 64.3% is rich versus typical index vols (VIX not provided) — expensive to buy calls/puts; 7–35d ATM sits 50–59%.

Term structure: Term structure: front-week 7d ATM 50.7% → 14d 51.7% → 28–42d 57–60% (slight steepening into 28–42d), indicating elevated medium-term event risk and value in selling near-dated vol into higher mid-term IV.

Skew: Notable skew: heavy call premium at $250/$260; mispriced vol spot: super low last-print IVs on expiring 4/10 prints (artificially low IV readings) — edge: sell premium into 4/17–5/15 term where IV sits 50–60%.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $245.2M bullish; P/C Volume 0.64 (call-biased) and P/C OI 1.10

Directional prints: 6.1 put 245 OTM 2026-04-10 — Huge 4/10 print AMD260410P00245000 Vol=67,111 vs OI=182 (368.7x) — could be aggressive short-dated hedging/sweeps; interpretation: either large buyer of catastrophic tail protection or systematic sell into expiry; more consistent with dealer/vol arb hedging into expiry given extremely low IV. 17.2 call 250 OTM 2026-04-10 — 4/10 call flow AMD260410C00250000 Vol=123,949 OI=6,017 (20.6x) — heavy near-term call buying/synthetic hedging; likely institutional directional call buying or delta-hedge activity; consistent with overall bullish flow.

Unusual: 5.1 call 245 ITM 2026-04-10 — AMD260410C00245000 ITM call vol 65,938 vs OI=8,478 — expiry sweep activity; likely gamma/arb hedges rather than directional long-term buys.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip ~ $200 is far below spot — sudden large downmove will flip dealer hedges and accelerate selling toward structural MP $220
!Front-week expiry prints (4/10) create expiry-technical noise and potential pin/unpin events that can spike intraday IV
!High ATM IV (64.3%) means buying directional vol is expensive; selling premium risks short gamma pain if spot runs past $260
!Earnings 2026-05-05 is ~25 days away and sits inside elevated mid-term IV — could reprice skew and term structure pre-earnings

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long stockModerate-Weak
Buy shares at market $245.04
High IV and distance to MP $220; gamma and mean-reversion risk if pin fails
Short stockWeak
Avoid initiating clean short while GEX is strongly positive and dealer pin exists at $245
Dealer pin and heavy call flow create squeeze risk
Covered callModerate
Buy stock + Sell 2026-05-15 255C (prefer sell higher IV leg)
Caps upside; exposed to drop toward $220 before earnings
Cash-secured put / put spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-04-17 245/240 put spread
Gamma flip if spot breaches $240–$235; heavy pin mitigates small moves
Long callsModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-04-24 250C (expensive ATM IV)
High IV and theta decay; better as paired diagonal
Long puts / bear put spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-04-17 240/235 bear put spread
Expensive IV; conflict with bullish flow and GEX pin
Iron condorModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-04-17 242.5/235P x 255/260C (widths 7.5P / 5C)
VIX spike or pin break below $235 or rally above $260 busts wings
Calendar / DiagonalModerate
Sell near-term 2026-04-17 245 call, buy 2026-05-15 245 call (sell cheaper higher-IV leg?)
Front-week IV distortions; ensure selling the higher-IV leg per rule (here 4/17 IV ~50.7% vs 5/15 ~57.6% — buy/sell accordingly)
PMCC / LEAPS diagonalModerate-Strong
Buy stock + sell 2026-05-15 260C as covered call (or sell 2026-05-15 255C)
Large drop to $220 reduces stock value; collects rich mid-term call premium
Buy/write LEAPS diagonalModerate
Buy 2027-01-15 LEAP calls (choose 2027 strikes) + sell nearer-dated calls
Long dated vega risk; requires available LEAP liquidity

Top Plays

#1
Short-dated put spread (tactical)
Sell 2026-04-17 245/240 put spread
Leverages the $245 dealer pin and positive GEX to collect rich short-dated premium; IV 4/17 ATM ~50.7% supports credit.
Credit: $2.10-$2.40
Max loss: $2.60
BE: $242.90
Mgmt: Take profits at 50–70% of max credit; close if spot <$240 for 30+ minutes or VIX spikes >30.
Defined-risk premium collectors
#2
Iron condor (balanced range sell)
Sell 2026-04-17 242.5/235 put x 255/260 call iron condor
Sells elevated mid-week IV and uses EM bounds $231.31–$258.76; wide-ish put wing to respect pin and call wing at concentrated call OI $250/$260.
Credit: $1.10-$1.60
Max loss: $8.90
BE: Lower: 242.5 - credit; Upper: 255 + credit
Mgmt: Trim/roll if spot trades outside $240–$250 for >1 session or credit reaches 60% of max; exit on VIX >30.
Accounts with capital for defined risk wings
#3
Multi-week PMCC / covered-call tilt (30–45 DTE)
Buy stock + Sell 2026-05-15 260 call (collect elevated mid-term IV)
Collects rich 5–6 week call premium (5/15 ATM ~57.6%) while owning underlying; benefits from pin and call flow that caps upside around $260–$275.
Credit: N/A
Max loss: Unlimited (stock) / offset by premium
BE: N/A
Mgmt: Buy back call if spot > $265 and IV compresses or if share drawdown to <$235; consider rolling out 30–45d if assigned risk becomes likely.
Buy-and-hold bullish traders or those seeking yield while long equity

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot holds $245.00 for 30 minutes after open → Sell 2026-04-17 245/240 put spread
IFIf spot fails $240.00 and GEX at $240 still positive → Buy 2026-04-17 240/235 put spread (protection / directional hedge)
IFIf spot rallies to $250.00 with >$50M call flow at $250–260 → Sell 2026-04-17 255/260 call spread or add iron condor call side (sell 255, buy 260)
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf spot trades <$240 for 2 consecutive sessions → Roll short 245/240 put spread down to 240/235 or convert to long put spread 240/230 (depending on capital)
ADJIf VIX drops >8 vol points and 4/17 IV compresses below 40% → Buy back short premium (iron condor / put spreads) and redeploy into calendar/diagonal into 5/15
Exit Triggers
EXITIf spot breaks below $235.00 with volume and VIX >30 → Close all short premium positions immediately
EXITIf trade reaches 60% of max profit (credit strategies) → Take profit and reduce size or roll wings wider

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: short premium and defined-risk credit strategies anchored to the $245 dealer pin with a multi-week horizon; invalidation: sustained break below $235–$240 (dealer pins at $240/$242.50 may fail) which opens mean-reversion to $220. Top plays: 4/17 245/240 put spread (tactical), 4/17 iron condor 242.5/235 x 255/260 (range sell), and a 5/15 covered-call tilt selling 260C for multi-week income.
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This directional reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.
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