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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $302.25EOD only

Max Pain

$292.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.44

1.5% from close

Price Gap

-9.75

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.70

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

AAPL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias, strong $+795.6M GEX and bullish flow. Spot above MP ($295). Normal vol supports drift up. Resistance $310-$314.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow +1 GEX pinning +1 VIX 17 = 9.

Supports: GEX +795M, bullish flow, spot>MP, low VIX
Conflicts: Gamma pinning caps upside, resistance at 310-314, gamma flip 240 tail risk

🟢GEX +$795.6M: strong dealer long gamma

📌Spot > max pain $295, bullish bias

⚠️Gamma flip $240 tail risk, far below

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol normal, VIX 17.4, supports trend.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$795.6M, strong pinning near $295-$300.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net flow, low P/C.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above MP $295, upside bias.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained GEX and flow, normal vol allow multi-week drift.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$297.81$306.69

Test high end $307

Next 1 week

$296.29$308.21

Capped near $310

Next 2 weeks

$290.95$313.55

Extend to $314

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $295 (2026-05-20); $292 (2026-05-22); $295 (2026-05-26)

EM guardrails: 2d $297.81/$306.69; 1w $296.29/$308.21

Support: $295.00 · $290.95

Resistance: $310.00 · $313.55 · $320.00

Gamma flip: ~$240.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,176 (20.6% below spot)

Structural: Support $295 (MP), $291; resist $310, $314, $320; gamma flip $240.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+795.6M

DEX: +149.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$240 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,176 (20.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$795.6M, DEX +149.6M sh; long gamma; flip $240.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV moderate vs VIX, fair premium.

Term structure: Flat contango, no event kinks.

Skew: Slight call bias; no big vol opp.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Heavy call buying; net premium $261M, P/C vol ratio 0.35, bullish.

Directional prints: 2.8 call 302.5 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol 220k vs OI 9k (24x), bought aggressively, likely bullish speculation or hedging. Preferred read: bought. 9.3 call 300 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol 132k vs OI 10k (13x), ITM call buying, may be buy-write or directional. Preferred read: bought.

Unusual: 2.8 call 302.5 OTM 2026-05-20 — Extreme volume 220k, 24x OI, IV low. Likely aggressive bullish positioning. 7.2 put 300 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol 59k vs OI 2k (27.7x), OTM puts. Could be hedging or sold puts. Unusual given bullish context. 4.6 put 302.5 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol 16k vs OI 175 (93x), OTM puts, extremely elevated ratio. Likely small OI, may be hedging.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma pinning limit

!Flip $240 tail

!Macro shock

!Support break $291

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $305.00/$320.00 call spread Why now: Captures upside with defined risk, aligns with resistance target.	Max loss if stock stays below long strike; vol decay.
Bullish risk reversal	Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $320.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $280.00 put Why now: Zero-cost upside exposure, benefits from bullish drift.	Uncapped downside if stock collapses through short put.
Long call	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $320.00 call Why now: Max convexity for expected move to $310+.	Time decay and direction failure if stock stalls.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $305.00/$320.00 call spread

Captures upside via 2026-07-17 $305/$320 call spread, aligning with resistance target.

Why this play: Best risk/reward for expected rally to $310-$314 with defined loss and high liquidity.

Debit: $5.02-$6.13

Max loss: $6.13

BE: $311.13

Mgmt: Exit at $310-$314 or if spot <$295; manage theta decay near expiry.

Traders seeking capped risk with bullish conviction.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-07-17 $320.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $280.00 put

Buy $320 call, sell $280 put for cost-less bullish exposure.

Why this play: Zero-cost upside but unlimited downside risk; suitable for drift but macro tail risks limit appeal.

Debit: $1.17-$1.43

Max loss: $280.00

BE: $280.00

Mgmt: Roll put up if spot falls; close if spot <$295.

Traders comfortable with put assignment risk seeking leverage.

Long Call

Buy 2026-07-17 $320.00 call

Outright $320 call for leveraged upside.

Why this play: Highest convexity for breakouts above $320 but cost and time decay are headwinds.

Debit: $4.37-$5.33

Max loss: $5.33

BE: $325.33

Mgmt: Take profit above $320 or cut loss at $295.

Aggressive traders targeting large moves.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF AAPL holds above $295 (MP) for 1 day → THEN buy Bull Call Spread (AAPL_bull_CS_001) at $5.02-$6.13

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF AAPL reaches $310 (first resistance) → THEN scale out 50% of Bull Call Spread or roll up strikes

Exit Triggers

EXITIF AAPL breaks below $295 (invalidation) → THEN close all bullish positions: Bull Call Spread, Risk Reversal, Long Call

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias, strong GEX, spot above MP $295. Key support $295, resistance $310-$314. Prefer Bull Call Spread for defined risk. Invalidation below $295. Multi-week hold.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.