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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $298.97EOD only
Max Pain
$295.00
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.02
1.0% from close
Price Gap
-3.97
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
19
Low premium
P/C OI
0.71
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
AAPL Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Outlook

Bullish bias driven by strong dealer long gamma (+$1.1B) and bullish flow, with gamma pinning near $295-$300 supporting upside. However, spot is 7.2% above max pain ($280) and near upper guardrail ($303.93), suggesting potential resistance. Confidence remains high (7.5/10) due to alignment of GEX/flow and pinning, partially offset by spot distance from MP.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
Base 5, +2 GEX/flow alignment, +1 gamma pinning, -1 spot 7.2% above MP, +0.5 VIX 18.
Supports: Bullish flow, $1.1B dealer long gamma, pinning regime, VIX in normal range.
Conflicts: Spot above MP, near upper range (2d $303.93), resistance at $309.61.
📈Dealer long gamma $1.1B and bullish flow support upside.
⚠️Spot 7.2% above max pain ($280) could trigger mean reversion.
📌Gamma pinning near $295-$300; 2d range $296.53-$303.93.
📊Vol normal, term structure flat; no vol edge.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Vol normal: VIX 18.4, AAPL IV in typical range.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Gamma pinning: GEX +$1.1B, dealer long gamma, flip at ~$240.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Flow bullish: net premium positive, low P/C ratio.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above MP ($280) and within EM guardrails ($296.53-$303.93 2d).
Thesis duration: Multi-week — No imminent catalyst; bullish positioning and gamma suggest sustained bias over weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$296.53$303.93
Supported by dealer gamma, but near upper range.
Next 1 week
$294.02$306.45
Consolidation $295-$306; break above $306 accelerates.
Next 2 weeks
$290.86$309.61
Wider $290.86-$309.61; resistance at $310.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $280 (2026-05-15); $295 (2026-05-18); $285 (2026-05-20)
EM guardrails: 2d $296.53/$303.93; 1w $294.02/$306.45
Support: $290.86 · $280.00
Resistance: $309.61 · $310.00 · $320.00
Gamma flip: ~$240.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,216 (20.1% below spot)
Structural: Max pins: $280 (05/15), $295 (05/18), $285 (05/20). EM guardrails: 2d $296.53/$303.93, 1w $294.02/$306.45, 2w $290.86/$309.61. Support $290.86, $280. Resistance $309.61, $310, $320. Gamma flip ~$240.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.1B

DEX: +164.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$240 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,216 (20.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM gamma +$1.1B (long). Dealer net long 164.9M shares. Flip at ~$240 (put OI).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV slightly rich vs VIX (18.4) due to positive gamma and flow, but normal vs historical.

Term structure: Term structure flat to slight contango; no event kinks.

Skew: Skew symmetric with slight put premium; no actionable vol structure opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Mixed flow, net long premium ~$319M with low put/call ratio (0.48) but large unusual put prints suggest hedge/speculation.

Directional prints: 16.2 call 305 OTM 2026-05-18 — Vol 30,535 vs OI 3,065 (10x), IV 16.2%. Likely bought, bullish call buying. 25.2 call 292.5 ITM 2026-05-18 — Vol 4,440 vs OI 519 (8.6x), IV 25.2%. Deep ITM call, likely bought as bullish continuation.

Unusual: 124.2 put 180 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol 7,500 vs OI 201 (37.3x), IV 124.2%. Highly unusual, likely speculative put or tail hedge. 15.3 put 297.5 OTM 2026-05-18 — Vol 14,884 vs OI 570 (26.1x), IV 15.3%. Unusual put buying, possibly hedging or short anticipation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Mean reversion to max pain ($280).
!Dealer gamma flip at $240 (far but notable).
!Resistance at $309.61 and $310.
!Broad market weakness (SPY -1.2%, QQQ -1.51%).

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-18 $300.00/$315.00 call spread
Why now: Bull call aligns with bullish view, caps upside near resistance; uses high OI expiration.
Upside capped at short strike; loss if spot drops below long strike.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-06-18 $285.00/$270.00 put spread
Why now: Put credit spread at support benefits from theta and gamma pinning, limited risk to $280.
Loss if spot breaks below $280; assignment risk if short put ITM.
Bullish risk reversalModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-17 $310.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $280.00 put
Why now: Risk reversal provides upside exposure with limited cost; short put at support reduces premium.
Short put exposes to downside risk if support fails; large loss on sharp drop.
Long callModerate
Buy 2026-06-18 $300.00 call
Why now: Long call captures upside convexity; use 34 DTE for theta management.
Time decay if no movement; full loss if OTM at expiry.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-18 $300.00/$315.00 call spread
Buy $300/$315 call spread for upside with capped profit at $315, loss limited to net debit.
Why this play: Best aligns with bullish bias and resistance near $310, limited risk, uses high liquidity expiration.
Debit: $5.20-$6.35
Max loss: $6.35
BE: $306.35
Mgmt: Exit if spot drops below $290.86; take profit near $315 or at 50% max gain.
Traders expecting moderate upside with defined risk.
#2
Bullish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-07-17 $310.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $280.00 put
Buy $310 call, sell $280 put; profit from upside, risk from downside below $280.
Why this play: Provides upside exposure with limited cost; short put at support helps finance call.
Debit: $3.60-$4.40
Max loss: $280.00
BE: $280.00
Mgmt: Monitor short put; roll if spot nears $290; take profit on call if target hit.
Traders confident in upside but wanting reduced premium outlay.
#3
Long Call
Buy 2026-06-18 $300.00 call
Buy $300 call for unlimited upside potential but full premium at risk.
Why this play: Simple bullish play for pure upside; 34 DTE manages theta.
Debit: $8.30-$10.15
Max loss: $10.15
BE: $310.15
Mgmt: Set stop-loss at 50% premium loss; take profit at $310 or $315.
Traders with high conviction and tolerance for higher risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf AAPL pulls back to $290.86 support and holds → Enter Bull Call Spread: buy 2026-06-18 $300/$315 call spread at $5.20-$6.35
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf AAPL reaches $309.61 resistance and stalls → Take 50% profit on Bull Call Spread or adjust to higher strikes
Exit Triggers
EXITIf AAPL closes below $290.86 → Exit all bullish positions (bull call, risk reversal, long call)

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with resistance near $310. Use defined risk spreads. Key support $290.86; invalidation below. Favor Bull Call Spread for upside with cap at $315.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.