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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $294.80EOD only

Max Pain

$287.50

Next expiry May 13, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.25

1.1% from close

Price Gap

-7.30

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.71

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 12, 2026 close

AAPL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias driven by strong dealer GEX ($+894M) and bullish flow, with gamma pinning near $290 providing support. Normal vol environment (VIX 18) favors long gamma. Spot 3.1% above MP but within EM guardrails, targeting $300 resistance. High confidence (8.5) reflects alignment of regime, positioning, and pricing.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 5, +2 from GEX/flow alignment, +1 from positive gamma pinning, -0.5 from spot >3% above MP, +1 from VIX 18

Supports: Bullish flow, positive GEX pinning, normal vol environment, VIX low
Conflicts: Spot 3.1% above max pain ($290), resistance at $300 and $310

📈Dealer GEX +$894M indicates strong buying support

⚠️Spot 3.1% above MP ($290) could see mean reversion

🔑Resistance at $300 is key; breakout above targets $310

🛡️Gamma flip at $240 far below; pinning risk is low

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV is normal relative to historical range; VIX at 18 supports low volatility environment.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Total GEX +$894.4M, positive and pinning near $290 max pain. No nearby flip risk.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium skewed bullish; put/call ratio indicates buying pressure.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot at ~$296, 3.1% above max pain $290, but within EM guardrails ($293.60-$304.14).

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term expirations (May13,15,18) with gamma pinning at known strikes; thesis tied to these events.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$293.60$304.14

Supported by GEX and flow, but resistance at $300.

Next 1 week

$292.33$305.41

Gamma pinning near 290 provides floor; upside to $305.

Next 2 weeks

$286.79$310.94

Wider range; potential vol expansion after events.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $290 (2026-05-13); $280 (2026-05-15); $290 (2026-05-18)

EM guardrails: 2d $293.60/$304.14; 1w $292.33/$305.41

Support: $290.00 · $286.79

Resistance: $300.00 · $310.00 · $310.94

Gamma flip: ~$240.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,232 (19.7% below spot)

Structural: Structural support at $290 (max pain), $286.79 (2w low); resistance at $300, $310 (2w high). Gamma flip far below at $240.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+894.4M

DEX: +163.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$240 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,232 (19.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers long gamma (+$894M) and long delta (+163.7M shares), providing support near $290 and upside leverage. Flip risk is minimal at $240.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Stock IV in line with VIX (~18), reflecting normal vol regime; no mispricing.

Term structure: Term structure likely flat to slightly contango; no event kinks observed.

Skew: Skew tilted puts given bullish flow; no standout opportunity but long gamma benefits from low IV.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net $530M call premium, P/C vol ratio 0.31, call-heavy flow.

Directional prints: 15.5 call 297.5 ITM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 14.3, last 1.6; likely bought for upside, expiring today. 4.7 call 300 OTM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 12.7, last 0.02; massive volume, possibly sold or closing. 23.6 call 307.5 OTM 2026-05-18 — Vol/OI 11.1, IV 23.6%, last 0.79; bullish call buying for next week.

Unusual: 11.5 put 295 OTM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 17.0, IV 11.5%, last 0.01; deep OTM put selling. 21 put 320 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 9.4, IV 21%, last 24.15; large premium put, likely hedging. 22 put 295 OTM 2026-05-18 — Vol/OI 8.8, IV 22%, last 1.6; bearish put buying or closing.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot pullback to MP ($290) if bullish flow weakens

!Resistance at $300 fails to break

!Event risk from expiration pinning shifts

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long call	Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $305.00 call Why now: Captures upside convexity with limited downside; aligns with bullish flow and gamma pinning near $290.	Time decay if spot stalls; resistance at $300 fails.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $295.00/$320.00 call spread Why now: Limits premium outlay; benefits from continued call flow and vol contraction.	Max loss if spot stays below 295; capped upside.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $275.00/$260.00 put spread Why now: Gamma pinning supports $290; sell 280 put, buy 275 put for credit.	Delta risk if spot breaks below 280; earnings gap risk.
Cash-secured put	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-17 $275.00 cash-secured put Why now: High probability zone with strong dealer GEX floor; limited downside if assigned.	Opportunity cost if spot rallies; assignment risk below 280.

Top Plays

Long Call

Buy 2026-07-17 $305.00 call

Captures unlimited upside on break above 300.

Why this play: Highest upside with bullish flow and dealer support; outranks spreads due to convexity.

Debit: $9.13-$11.16

Max loss: $11.16

BE: $316.16

Mgmt: Exit if spot below 290 or at 300 resistance.

Aggressive traders

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $295.00/$320.00 call spread

Benefits from continued call flow and vol contraction.

Why this play: Limits premium while profiting from upside; better risk/reward than long call alone.

Debit: $9.31-$11.38

Max loss: $11.38

BE: $306.38

Mgmt: Close at 50% gain or if spot drops.

Risk-conscious bulls

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $275.00/$260.00 put spread

Sells puts near strong support for premium.

Why this play: High probability due to gamma pinning; outranks CSP for lower capital.

Credit: $1.66-$2.03

Max loss: $12.97

BE: $272.97

Mgmt: Buy back at 50% profit or if spot nears 290.

Income seekers

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $290 support → THEN buy 2026-07-17 $305 call for $9.13-$11.16

IFIF spot holds above $290 → THEN buy 2026-07-17 $295/$320 call spread for $9.31-$11.38

IFIF spot above $290 → THEN sell 2026-07-17 $275/$260 put spread for $1.66-$2.03 credit

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot breaks below $290 → THEN close all long positions (LC, BCS) and PCS

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias from $894M dealer GEX and bullish flow, gamma pin near $290 support. Resistance $300. High confidence (8.5). Duration: event-specific. Supports top plays: long call, bull call spread, put credit spread.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.