Home Options AAPLReports

AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $298.97EOD only

Max Pain

$295.00

Next expiry May 20, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.02

1.0% from close

Price Gap

-3.97

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.71

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

AAPL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish thesis with high confidence (9/10). Dealer gamma positive (+536M) supports pinning above $295 MP. Upside to $302 resistance, VIX calm. Keep long bias.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive; +0.5 spot near MP; +0.5 VIX 18 =9.0

Supports: Positive gamma, bullish flow, spot above MP, low VIX
Conflicts: Resistance $302, gamma flip far below

📈Spot above MP with +536M gamma pinning

🛡️VIX 18 calm backdrop

⚠️Gamma flip ~$240 distant but large

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal IV, VIX 18 not elevated

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning +536M GEX supports current range

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium and call skew

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max pain, bullish sentiment

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Strong GEX/flow alignment, short-dated expiry pinning

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$295.95$302.00

Resistance $302 key

Next 1 week

$292.20$305.75

MP pin $292 support

Next 2 weeks

$287.42$310.52

Support $287

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $295 (2026-05-20); $292 (2026-05-22); $285 (2026-05-26)

EM guardrails: 2d $295.95/$302.00; 1w $292.20/$305.75

Support: $295.00 · $287.42

Resistance: $300.00 · $310.00 · $310.52

Gamma flip: ~$240.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,169 (19.7% below spot)

Structural: MP pins: $295/292/285; EM: 2d $296/302, 1w $292/306; S: $295, $287; R: $300, $310; Gamma flip ~$240.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+536.3M

DEX: +141.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$240 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,169 (19.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$536M positive, DEX +142M shares long delta. Flip ~$240 from put OI 19.7% below spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: AAPL IV moderate vs VIX 18, not rich

Term structure: Contango; near-term elevated skew from pinning

Skew: Put skew but call resistance; consider call credit spreads near $302

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $140.9M, strong call flow (P/C vol 0.41).

Directional prints: 16.9 call 300 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol 95k vs OI 7.7k (12.3x). Aggressive new buying likely. Prefer bought (bullish). 17.4 call 302.5 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol 52k vs OI 6.7k (7.8x). New buying. Prefer bought (bullish). 18 call 297.5 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol 39k vs OI 5.4k (7.2x). New buying. Prefer bought (bullish).

Unusual: 17.3 put 297.5 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol 27k vs OI 1.4k (19x). Extreme. Prefer bought (bearish hedge). 26.4 put 255 OTM 2027-01-15 — Long-dated; vol 1.5k vs OI 134 (11.4x). Unusual. Prefer bought (bearish). 17.7 put 300 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol 9.5k vs OI 851 (11.2x). New put activity. Prefer bought (bearish).

Risks & Catalysts

!Resistance $302 failure

!Broad market weakness

!Gamma flip if spot falls $240 (unlikely)

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-18 $295.00/$310.00 call spread Why now: High confidence, gamma positive. Buy 295/305 call spread for defined risk.	Upside capped at $305; loss below $295
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-18 $285.00/$280.00 put spread Why now: Support at $290; strong buy flow. Sell 285/280 put spread.	Loss below $280, limited to width
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-18 $295.00 call Why now: High confidence, asymmetric upside. Buy 295c 30 DTE.	Time decay and vega if move delayed
Call calendar	Conditional	Sell 2026-06-05 $300.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $300.00 call Why now: Vol smirk; long dated call for earnings drift.	Double loss if stock moves beyond short strike

Top Plays

Long Call

Buy 2026-06-18 $295.00 call

Buy 295c 30 DTE to capture upside to resistance.

Why this play: Highest asymmetric upside for strong bullish conviction.

Debit: $9.56-$11.69

Max loss: $11.69

BE: $306.69

Mgmt: Exit if spot falls below 295 or near 302 resistance.

Aggressive traders with high conviction.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-18 $295.00/$310.00 call spread

Buy 295/305 call spread for limited risk upside.

Why this play: Defined risk, lower cost than long call, still bullish.

Debit: $6.12-$7.48

Max loss: $7.48

BE: $302.48

Mgmt: Hold to expiry or close if spot nears 305.

Traders wanting defined risk and moderate leverage.

Call Calendar

Sell 2026-06-05 $300.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $300.00 call

Sell short-term 300c, buy long-term 300c for theta decay.

Why this play: Exploits volatility smirk and earnings drift.

Debit: $5.29-$6.46

Max loss: $6.46

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Roll if short strike tested; hold through earnings.

Traders expecting volatility compression before earnings.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF AAPL holds above $295 support and reclaims $298 with volume, then buy 295c or 295/310 call spread. → Buy lc_1 (295c) or bcs_1 (295/310 call spread) for bullish exposure.

IFIF AAPL breaks above $300 resistance with momentum above $301, then add bull call spread. → Buy bcs_1 (295/310 call spread) for defined risk upside.

Exit Triggers

EXITIF AAPL closes below $295, then exit bullish positions. → Close lc_1 and bcs_1 to limit loss.

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with support at $295 and resistance at $300/$310. Dealer gamma positive supports pinning above $295. Top plays: long call (lc_1) and bull call spread (bcs_1). Risk: failure at $302 or broad market weakness. Manage if spot falls below $295.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.