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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $298.87EOD only

Max Pain

$280.00

Next expiry May 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.27

1.8% from close

Price Gap

-18.87

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.72

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 13, 2026 close

AAPL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

AAPL is in a bullish regime with strong dealer gamma and flow support, but spot is 6.5% above max pain, suggesting potential pinning pullback. Short-term upside limited by resistance near $300, but structural support at $286.73 holds.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; -1 spot far from MP; +1 VIX 17 support.

Supports: Bullish flow, positive gamma, low VIX, support at $286.73.
Conflicts: Spot above max pain, resistance at $300/$310.

🟢Bullish flow & GEX: +$718.7M GEX, net call buying.

⚠️Spot 6.5% above max pain ($280-$292 pins).

📊VIX 17 supports options writing, not hedging.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV is in normal range, not elevated relative to recent history.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive GEX of +$718.7M with strong dealer hedging, pinning near $280-$292.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net bullish premium flow with heavy call buying, indicating upward momentum.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ($298) above max pain ($280-$292), suggesting potential drift downward to pins.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Multiple OPEX dates in next week (May 15, 18, 20) with concentrated put OI at $240, creating event-driven pinning dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$294.34$302.08

Support at $294.34, resistance $302.08; bull flow may test upper.

Next 1 week

$291.16$305.25

Range $291.16-$305.25; pinning to $292 expiry favors buys.

Next 2 weeks

$286.73$309.68

Wider range $286.73-$309.68; structural support holds.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $280 (2026-05-15); $292 (2026-05-18); $285 (2026-05-20)

EM guardrails: 2d $294.34/$302.08; 1w $291.16/$305.25

Support: $286.73 · $280.00

Resistance: $300.00 · $309.68 · $310.00

Gamma flip: ~$240.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,231 (19.5% below spot)

Structural: Support: $286.73 (2w low), $280 (put OI). Resistance: $300, $309.68, $310. Gamma flip at ~$240 (put OI concentration).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+718.7M

DEX: +159.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$240 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,231 (19.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$718.7M, DEX +159.6M shares; gamma flip ~$240 based on 58,231 put OI (19.5% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: AAPL IV is elevated relative to VIX (17.26), reflecting stock-specific risk, not market fear.

Term structure: Slight contango with no major kinks; front-month (May 15) IV elevated due to OPEX.

Skew: Put skew elevated, but no actionable vol structure opportunity; focus on directional bias.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$220.9M, put/call vol ratio 0.41 (call-heavy) aligns with bullish flow regime.

Directional prints: 23.4 call 295 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 11.4x (5338 vol vs 468 OI), aggressive call activity. Likely bought, bullish; if sold bearish. Preferred: bought.

Unusual: 24.4 put 302.5 ITM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 21.4x (4075 vol, 190 OI) extreme ratio near expiry. Likely bought hedge; if sold, bearish. Preferred: bought hedge. 23.4 call 295 ITM 2026-05-20 — High vol/OI 11.4x, same as directional; strong bullish flow signal.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot pullback towards max pain ($280-$292) if bullish flow fades.

!Resistance at $300 may cap gains; break above $302 needed for continuation.

!Gamma flip at $240 is far but could accelerate if broad market selloff.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $290.00/$300.00 call spread Why now: Dealer gamma support and aggressive call activity suggest upside; defined risk spread limits cost.	Capped upside if spot fails to reach $300; time decay if move delayed.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $275.00/$270.00 put spread Why now: Max pain near $280-292; selling put credit spread collects premium with defined tail risk.	If spot breaks $280 sharply, loss limited to spread width.
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $300.00 call Why now: Aggressive call flow and positive gamma support; long call captures upside with defined risk.	Time decay accelerates closer to expiration; requires directional move to profit.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $290.00/$300.00 call spread

Long $290/$300 call spread profits from bullish flow while limiting cost.

Why this play: Defined risk captures upside with gamma support, best given resistance near $300.

Debit: $5.24-$6.41

Max loss: $6.41

BE: $296.41

Mgmt: Exit below $286.73 or near expiry.

Moderate bullish view with defined risk.

Long Call

Buy 2026-07-17 $300.00 call

Buy $300 call to profit from breakout; unlimited upside.

Why this play: Higher leverage from aggressive call flow, but cost and resistance risk.

Debit: $10.71-$13.09

Max loss: $13.09

BE: $313.09

Mgmt: Stop at $286.73 or manage delta.

Aggressive bullish with higher risk tolerance.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $275.00/$270.00 put spread

Sell $275/$270 put spread to collect premium on support.

Why this play: Defensive premium collection near max pain, less direct upside.

Credit: $0.61-$0.74

Max loss: $4.26

BE: $274.26

Mgmt: Close if spot below $275.

Defensive bullish expecting sideways to up.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot holds above $286.73 support → Buy $290/$300 call spread (strategy_1)

IFSpot breaks above $300.00 resistance → Buy $300 call (strategy_3)

IFSpot holds $286.73-$300 for 2 days → Buy $275/$270 put credit spread

Adjustment Triggers

ADJSpot approaches $300 with rejection → Take profit on bull call spread

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot breaks below $286.73 → Exit bull call spread (strategy_1)

Tactical Summary

AAPL bullish bias near $300 resistance. Support $286.73. Top play: bull call spread ($290/$300). If $300 breaks, long call. Put credit spread ($275/$270) if range-bound.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.