ThetaOwl

TSLA Flow Report

Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026

Flow Verdict

BiasMixed/Bearish
Confirmation: Net premium remains negative (<= -$300M) with continued large short-dated put premium and price fails to reclaim $355/$360
Invalidation: Net premium flips materially positive (>+$200M) driven by sustained call buying and price closes >$360 with follow-through
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 7.0; -0.5 mixed short-dated bilateral flow; -0.0 market context

Watch next session: Activity and premium flow into the $360 strikes (pin at $360 and GEX +$9.5M); Whether same-day option selling/buying (Apr-10 prints) unwind or are followed by additional directional trades

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$530.3M bearish (large net premium OUT of calls relative to puts at some far strikes; heavy put premium at far strikes dominates aggregate)

P/C volume ratio: 0.93 — near balanced, slight call tilt on volume

P/C OI ratio: 0.66 — call-biased open interest (more call OI than put OI)

Flow is mixed in structure but leans bearish at the aggregate premium level: massive net premium outflow (-$530.3M) indicates large put-side premium purchases (or net buyers of protection) concentrated in a subset of strikes while short-dated ATM call prints show heavy activity that looks like gamma/expiration hedging. Dealers are net short gamma (Total GEX = -$42.0M) which raises fragility to intraday moves; key pin magnets sit above spot at $355/$360, so short-dated flows could compress price upward intraday even as overall premium metrics point to downside insurance demand.

Notable Prints

#1
TSLA 2026-04-10 $345.00 CALL
Vol: 105,808
OI: 3,594
Vol/OI: 29.4x
IV: 52.4%
Notional: ~$43.37M
Intent: Short-dated directional call buying and/or opening of large call-heavy spreads into expiration (delta exposure + dealer hedging)
Dual read: Aggressive buyer (bullish) or block seller overwriting large stock exposure (neutral/covered call)

Read-through: Strong same-day call flow centered ATM — forces dealer hedges that can create upside pin action intraday but does not negate the large net premium sell/put-driven backdrop.

#2
TSLA 2026-04-10 $340.00 CALL
Vol: 79,395
OI: 3,394
Vol/OI: 23.4x
IV: 53.5%
Notional: ~$57.94M
Intent: Heavy short-dated call buying (directional bullish or gamma scalping by HFTs/prop desks)
Dual read: Aggressive long calls (bullish) or part of short-dated call package versus a put leg (vol/straddle trade)

Read-through: Concentrated buy flow at $340-$345 indicates participants pushing for upside into same-day expiries; combined with dealer short gamma this can accentuate intraday bounces toward the $355 pin.

#3
TSLA 2026-04-10 $337.50 PUT
Vol: 86,506
OI: 4,015
Vol/OI: 21.6x
IV: 53.2%
Notional: ~$8.82M
Intent: Short-dated protective put buying or part of a large straddle/strangle execution
Dual read: Bought protection (bearish/hedge) or sold put leg in a complex multi-leg (neutral)

Read-through: Large put volume at slightly OTM strikes signals sizable downside hedging interest into the same-day expiry — offsets some of the call-side directional read and explains net premium negativity.

#4
TSLA 2026-04-10 $347.50 PUT
Vol: 76,230
OI: 2,587
Vol/OI: 29.5x
IV: 50.9%
Notional: ~$36.22M
Intent: Aggressive short-dated put buying (protective or directional bearish)
Dual read: Bought puts (hedge/bearish) or sold as a hedge against other positions (less likely given net premium)

Read-through: High OTM-put turnover close to spot suggests active short-term hedging demand — contributes to the large negative net premium and to dealer positioning shifts.

#5
TSLA 2026-04-10 $342.50 CALL
Vol: 59,716
OI: 1,709
Vol/OI: 34.9x
IV: 52.7%
Notional: ~$33.70M
Intent: Short-dated call buying (directional) concentrated around ATM
Dual read: Bullish buyers or sellers large enough to be covered by stock/overwriting flows

Read-through: Another large ATM/near-ATM call print reinforcing short-dated upside gamma pressure; paired with heavy put buys, this reads like both directional bets and short-term volatility trades.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Short-dated calls concentrated $340-$350 (heavy Apr-10 prints at $340, $342.50, $345) and large longer-dated call OI clusters out at $370-$500 (structural call OI wall $370-$500).

Put additions: Significant same-day put buying around $337.50 and $347.50 (Apr-10) and sustained put OI at $230 (longer-term put floor). Top premium flows show outsized put premium at high strikes (e.g., $500 put flow) indicating concentrated protection demand.

GEX/DEX consistency: Partially consistent — Total GEX = -$42.0M (dealers short gamma) which aligns with heavy short-dated bilateral flow; DEX +123.8M shares implies large delta-bearing positions in stock that may be hedged via options.

OI clusters: $370 strike (30,766 call OI) and $360 (22,808 call OI) are the largest near-term call clusters; put OI cluster notable at $230 (22,646 put OI). These call OI concentrations create potential resistance/pin behavior in the $360–$370 zone while the $230 put cluster is a structural long-dated put floor (outside near-term range).

Hedging evidence: Clear same-day protective/insurance buying (large Apr-10 puts) and ATM call buys that look like delta/gamma plays. Evidence of organized collars is limited in the provided prints, but the coexistence of heavy short-dated calls and puts points to both directional bets and hedges being placed simultaneously.

Max pain context: Max pain pins in the near-term are above spot ($355 on 4/10; $360 on 4/13 & 4/15). Given large short-dated call flow and dealer short gamma, price may gravitate intraday toward the $355–$360 pins even while aggregate premium metrics show downside insurance demand.

Signal vs Noise

~Concentration of extremely large volumes in the Apr-10 chain (same-day) — much of this is expiration-related activity and gamma/hedge flows rather than clean directional conviction over multi-day horizon.
~High-volume prints at multiple ATM strikes in same expiry (e.g., $340/$342.5/$345/$347.5) are consistent with straddle/strangle or block expiration trades — do not interpret each isolated print as a separate directional sweep.
~Large structural call OI blocks at $370–$500 are long-dated positioning and likely represent long-term hedges/written structures rather than immediate directional bets.
~Market-maker/dealer hedging: negative Total GEX (-$42.0M) implies forced hedging and gamma scalping; short-term flows may reflect MMs rebalancing rather than new institutional directional exposure.

Key Conclusions

⚖️Overall flow is mixed: heavy same‑day bilateral activity (large calls and puts) but aggregate net premium is strongly negative (-$530.3M), indicating material put/protection demand.
🐻Net premium skew and big same-day put prints (Apr-10 $337.50/$347.50) point to downside hedging and a bearish tilt at the premium level despite visible call buying.
📌Near-term pin/resistance cluster at $355–$360 (MP and GEX +$9.5M at $360) — expect price magnet behavior intraday if dealer gamma selling persists.
🚨Dealers are net short gamma (GEX = -$42.0M). Large short-dated bilateral trades increase intraday volatility risk — small prints can move price as dealers hedge.
🔁Much of today’s flow is expiration-related (Apr-10). Confirm any directional thesis by watching follow-on activity into Apr-13/Apr-15 expiries and changes in net premium.

Read the Flow analysis for TSLA for 2026-04-09. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.