thetaOwl

TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $433.59EOD only
Max Pain
$425.00
Next expiry May 27, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.20
1.9% from close
Price Gap
-8.59
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
39
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 26, 2026 close
TSLA Flow Report
Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer flow report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Flow Verdict

BiasBearish (Put-buy skew / protection)
Confirmation: Sustained net premium remaining negative (<= -$200M) with continued large put-heavy premium at $350–$365 and spot failing to reclaim $355–360
Invalidation: Net premium flips positive (> $0) or repeated heavy fresh call buying at/above $360 ($360-$370 call premium > $30M) pushes spot above $360 and dealers flip to net long gamma
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 4.7% from MP

Watch next session: Follow put premium at $360/$355 (will show continued protective buying if flows persist); Watch spot reaction to $354.05 (2d EM upper) and any large trade prints in 4/10 expirations (esp. $347.50P and $350C)

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$376.9M bearish (large net put premium paid)

P/C volume ratio: 0.69 — call-dominant by volume today but not by premium

P/C OI ratio: 0.66 — call-lean in OI (longer-dated call concentration), but short-dated premium is put-heavy

Large notional of put premium concentrated in near-term strikes (notably $360, $355, $350 and mid-$340s) while intraday volume shows many calls. This indicates institutions are buying downside protection (paying premium) against the short-term horizon while other market participants trade calls. Dealers are net negative GEX (-$71.4M), so puts bought will amplify downside gamma pain if spot drops toward the $330s.

Notable Prints

#1
TSLA 2026-04-10 $347.50 Put
Vol: 23,808
OI: 1,549
Vol/OI: 15.4x
IV: 51.5%
Notional: ~$18.5M
Intent: Directional protective put buying / short-dated downside hedge
Dual read: Bought puts (bearish/protection) OR market maker sell-to-open (less likely given premium skew and net premium)

Read-through: Very large, concentrated near-term put flow one day before 4/10 expirations — institutional risk-off or tail-hedge. Reinforces overall net premium negative and increases probability of short-term downside pressure/volatility.

#2
TSLA 2026-04-10 $340.00 Call
Vol: 29,167
OI: 2,479
Vol/OI: 11.8x
IV: 55.0%
Notional: ~$21.4M
Intent: Short-dated directional call activity (intraday trading or delta buys)
Dual read: Aggressive call buying (bullish) OR call selling/overwriting by dealers (neutral to bearish if delta-hedged)

Read-through: High call volume at an ITM strike next-expiry suggests heavy gamma exposure near current spot; paired with large put prints, this looks like two-sided hedging and market-maker inventory churn rather than pure conviction to the upside.

#3
TSLA 2026-04-10 $350.00 Call
Vol: 59,245
OI: 5,614
Vol/OI: 10.6x
IV: 52.9%
Notional: ~$15.9M
Intent: Short-dated call buying/speculation or dealers adjusting gamma hedges
Dual read: Aggressive speculative call demand OR part of two-sided liquidity where dealers sell calls and hedge with stock (can compress upside)

Read-through: Large activity concentrated at near-term $350 shows heavy gamma and pin risk into near expirations; however, premium-side net remains put-dominant overall.

#4
TSLA 2026-04-20 $350.00 Call
Vol: 5,035
OI: 343
Vol/OI: 14.7x
IV: 43.7%
Notional: ~$3.98M
Intent: Fresh directional longer-dated call purchase or roll from near-term positions
Dual read: Buy for upside exposure OR part of a spread (e.g., roll up/out from 4/10 expiries)

Read-through: Smaller absolute notional than the near-term prints but notable vol/oi — could indicate operators rolling short-term positions further out, or selective addition of call exposure against put protection.

#5
TSLA 2026-04-13 $280.00 Put
Vol: 2,579
OI: 113
Vol/OI: 22.8x
IV: 83.2%
Notional: ~$0.57M
Intent: Long-dated/OTM speculative tail protection or cheap way to express skew
Dual read: Tail-hedge purchase OR small structured leg (part of a larger spread)

Read-through: High vol/oi but small absolute notional relative to near-term put prints; signals some players buying deep OTM downside protection but not a dominant position.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Long-dated call concentration at high strikes ($630-$650 OI clusters) and scattered near-term call volume at $340-$375 — suggests institutions hold long convex upside exposure at distant expiries while intra-day call flow is more trading than structural.

Put additions: Significant short-dated put premium concentrated around $360, $355, $350 and the $345-$348 band (large net premium at $360: Net -$57,307,834; $355: Net -$40,559,774; $350: Net -$31,762,028; $345: Net -$20,317,848). This reads as protective buying or directional put accumulation centered just above spot.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — negative Total GEX (-$71.4M) with DEX +122.6M shares aligns with put-heavy premium and dealer short-gamma exposure, making moves to the downside likely to be amplified.

OI clusters: Major call OI walls at $400-$500 range (structural resistance); largest concentrated OI clusters: $650 (102,604 OI), $630 (68,784 OI), $485 (27,112 OI), $360 call cluster (18,294 OI) and $230 put floor (22,620 OI). The $400-$500 call bands create a distant resistance/ceiling; the $230 put floor is far below spot and unlikely relevant to near-term pinning.

Hedging evidence: Clear evidence of large-scale hedging/protection: heavy short-dated put buys (mid-$340s to mid-$360s) and dealers with negative gamma. Minimal evidence of structured collars in the near term — flows look like outright put premium purchases rather than paired call sells.

Max pain context: Max pain pins at $360 (4/8 and 4/13) and $357.50 (4/10) sit above spot. MP trending higher over expirations (MP trend: rising $360 → $400) creates a bias for dealers to defend prints in the $355–$365 band, increasing short-term pin risk toward $360 even as puts are being bought.

Signal vs Noise

~Large long-dated call OI at $630-$650 likely structural/insurance or sold-call positions (not immediate directional flow).
~Some heavy short-dated call volume (e.g., 4/10 $340/$350 calls) appears paired with large short-dated put buying — likely two-sided hedging and dealer gamma adjustments rather than outright bullish conviction.
~OTM $280 4/13 puts (high vol/oi) are small notional relative to near-term put flows — more tail-hedge/speculative than core directional positioning.
~Expirations clustered around 4/10: expect expiration rolls and closing activity that can look like large directional prints but may simply be short-term roll/close behavior.

Key Conclusions

🐻Net premium is heavily negative (-$376.9M) with concentrated put premium at $360/$355/$350 — institutional protection is being bought, signaling a near-term bearish bias.
⚠️Dealers are net short gamma (Total GEX -$71.4M) — any downside move could be amplified as dealers hedge, raising volatility risk.
📌Max pain and GEX pin concentration cluster at $360 / $357.50 — those levels are the most likely short-term magnets into near expirations.
🔎Short-dated large put prints (4/10 $347.50P) are the highest-significance flows — watch for follow-through or rollouts to 4/20 which would confirm sustained downside hedge demand.
🧭Support to watch: $332.45 (2d EM lower), $329.12 (1w EM lower), $321.62 (2w EM lower) — all within the ±10% band and likely to attract dealer buying if tested.
🧱Resistance to watch: $354.05 (2d EM upper), $357.38 (1w EM upper / MP at 4/10), $360.00 (MP at 4/8 & 4/13) — heavy put premium sits just below these levels, making them contested.
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on April 8, 2026.
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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.