ThetaOwl

TSLA Flow Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Flow Verdict

BiasBearish
Confirmation: Net premium remains negative >$300M with P/C volume ratio >0.8
Invalidation: Net premium flips positive or P/C volume ratio drops below 0.6
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 4.6% from MP

Watch next session: $350C OI buildup; Put flow at $330-$340; IV term structure for reverse calendar opportunities

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$331.4M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 0.84 — moderate put-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 0.68 — call-leaning positioning

Heavy put premium dominance drives net premium deeply negative, indicating institutional hedging or bearish bets. Despite call-leaning OI, today's flow shows clear defensive positioning, with elevated near-term IV suggesting event-driven volatility.

Notable Prints

#1
TSLA 4/8 $350 Call
Vol: 34,158
OI: 198
Vol/OI: 172.5x
IV: 49.3%
Notional: ~$2.24M
Intent: Fresh directional call buying
Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold/overwritten (neutral)

Read-through: Large volume relative to OI suggests new bullish positioning near spot, but isolated against broader bearish flow and elevated near-term IV.

#2
TSLA 4/8 $355 Put
Vol: 28,442
OI: 1,142
Vol/OI: 24.9x
IV: 49.1%
Notional: ~$1.73M
Intent: Protective put buying or bearish speculation
Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold/covered (neutral)

Read-through: ITM put with high volume indicates hedging or directional bearish bet just below spot, contributing to near-term IV spike.

#3
TSLA 4/8 $347.50 Put
Vol: 22,504
OI: 381
Vol/OI: 59.1x
IV: 49.7%
Notional: ~$648K
Intent: Fresh protective put buying
Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold/covered (neutral)

Read-through: High vol/OI ratio shows new OTM put positioning, supporting defensive narrative and near-term volatility premium.

#4
TSLA 4/8 $355 Call
Vol: 21,157
OI: 368
Vol/OI: 57.5x
IV: 48.0%
Notional: ~$840K
Intent: Fresh directional call buying
Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold/overwritten (neutral)

Read-through: OTM call with high volume suggests bullish speculation, but smaller notional than put flow and part of elevated near-term IV environment.

#5
TSLA 4/10 $340 Call
Vol: 16,680
OI: 535
Vol/OI: 31.2x
IV: 51.5%
Notional: ~$2.60M
Intent: ITM call buying for delta exposure
Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold/covered (neutral)

Read-through: Large ITM call volume indicates institutional long positioning, but isolated in bearish flow context and reflects higher IV in near-term expirations.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: $340-$357.50 calls near-term, but overwhelmed by put flow and elevated IV

Put additions: Heavy $330-$360 puts, especially $350P ($80M premium) and $360P ($92M premium), driving near-term IV spike

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — negative GEX (-$63.1M) aligns with bearish flow and selling pressure on rallies

OI clusters: $400-$500 call wall (28K+ OI), $230 put floor (22.6K OI)

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence: net premium -$331.4M driven by put buying at $350-$380 strikes, inflating short-dated IV

Max pain context: MP at $370-$368 near-term, spot $352.82 below, creating pin risk upward

Signal vs Noise

~$630C 4/10 volume likely lottery tickets or spread legs, not directional
~High OI at $400-$500 calls are long-dated positions, not near-term flow
~$230 put OI is structural floor, not active hedging
~Elevated near-term IV (48.5% for 2d vs 40.8% for 7d) suggests event-driven noise; consider reverse calendar spreads to arbitrage

Key Conclusions

🐻Net premium -$331.4M shows heavy institutional put buying, driving bearish flow
📉Negative GEX (-$63.1M) creates selling pressure on rallies
🎯Spot below max pain ($370) creates pin risk upward
IV term structure shows 7.7 vol point differential (48.5% 2d vs 40.8% 7d), favoring reverse calendar spreads

Read the Flow analysis for TSLA for 2026-04-06. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.