base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20
Term structure: Steep near-term skew (front-week put IV >> calls) that mean-reverts beyond 45 DTE; short-dated skew raises roll cost
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+122.4M)
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 70,809 (20.3% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated ~20% below spot with strong OI at $18; call wall $20–25
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $17.50/$15.00 put spread
Collect rich front‑week premium (24 DTE) consistent with primary sell‑put‑spread bias; defined risk 1.82 vs credit ~0.60–0.68, gamma buffer above $15.
Mgmt: Watch $18 invalidation; if price drifts toward $17–18 or realized vol spikes, roll wider/distant or buy back to cap loss; avoid holding into major gap risks or VIX>30 events.
!Concentrated $18 pin across multiple expiries
!Gamma flip near $15 — accelerated downside if broken
!Short-dated skew and concentrated OI raise roll and assignment risk around near expiries and earnings
!VIX spike/tail gap could invalidate premium bias