base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Term structure: Very steep near-to-mid term skew: 2d ATM 55.8% -> 16d ATM 82.3% then easing into mid 60s for multi-months
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+218.7M)
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,127 (20.2% below spot)
OI concentrations: Large call OI wall at $19.00 (95,088 OI) and concentrated puts at $15.00/$16.00 (71,127 / 60,097 OI). Near-term GEX concentration +$92.2M at $19.00, +$16.5M at $18.00, +$15.7M at $18.50.
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $17.00/$14.00 put spread
Sell a short-dated-to-mid DTE put credit spread near $17 support to harvest elevated premium while keeping defined risk; prefer expirations 25–55 DTE and 3-point wide protective long puts.
Mgmt: Take profits at 50–75% credit captured; tighten or roll if daily close below $17.00; exit if price approaches gamma flip ~$15.00
#2Call diagonal
Sell 2026-04-24 $19.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $20.00 call
Sell the 2026-04-24 front call into the $19 pin and buy a 2026-07-17 call to retain upside while monetizing front-month theta and elevated IV.
Mgmt: Buy to close short leg on 30–50% of max profit or if spot > $19.50; consider rolling short leg out 1–2 weeks higher if bullish bias persists
#3Iron condor
Sell 2026-04-24 $17.50/$12.50 put wing and $20.50/$25.00 call wing
Sell defined wings around $17 put support and $19–$20 call resistance using 9–30 DTE expirations; keep wings tight relative to expected move and avoid selling naked into earnings.
Mgmt: Close or adjust on 50–70% of max profit, or if daily close outside 1-week EM bounds [$17.29 - $20.30]; widen/roll if implied vol collapses or price trends
!Earnings scheduled 2026-04-28 (13 days) — do not sell naked through earnings; use defined-risk structures or wait for post-earnings repricing.
!Gamma flip ~$15.00 — a close toward or below this will accelerate downside; exit/hedge credit exposure if price moves below $15.00.
!Pin pressure at $19.00 and $17.00 means short-dated positions can pin into expirations (2026-04-17 mp $17.00; 2026-04-24 mp $16.50) — manage assignment risk and short strikes near these levels.
!Extremely high Avg IV (75.0%) increases both premium and the magnitude of spot moves; IV can reprice quickly and widen spreads—use defined risk where possible.
!Unusual activity: concentrated volume in short-dated $18.50 put (4% OTM 04-17) and heavy flow at $20.00/$19.00 calls — institutional blocks could cause directional gaps.