base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (GEX +$167.3M, bullish flow); +1 pinning; -1 spot 5.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18.36
Term structure: Short-term skew: 3d ATM 50.8%, 10d ATM 52.8%, back-end bump at 17d+ (31d ATM 66.2%) — vol curve rises into the 2–6 week window
Spot vs MP: Spot $17.91 is above max pain $17.00 (MP distance: spot 5.4% above MP as provided)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$167.3M) — dealers are long gamma overall which tends to magnet price toward concentrated OI
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Below ~$15 dealers flip to negative gamma exposure and moves can accelerate; current flip is ~15 (pre-computed)
OI concentrations: Call wall $19-$25 (heavy call OI at $19.00 = 89,884 OI); put floor $15-$16 (60,386 OI at $16, $71,092 OI at $15 aggregated); near-term GEX magnets at $19.00 (+$43.8M), $17.50 (+$29.6M), $18.00 (+$25.1M), $17.00 (+$11.6M)
#1cash-secured put (CSP)
Sell 1x SOFI 17.00 Put 2026-04-17 (3d)
Max pain pinned at $17.00 for 4/17; GEX pinning (+$167.3M) and heavy short-term call flow into $17-$18 range make a short 3-day CSP attractive to collect theta with limited tail exposure if you are cash-secured.
Mgmt: Take profits at 50-75% of max credit (close if premium drops to $0.03–$0.06). Roll if price closes below $17.25 into wider-dated put spread or roll down to 16/15 vertical before assignment. If price gaps below $16.50 on close, cut loss (buy back) or convert to a put spread.
#2put vertical (defined-risk put spread)
Sell 1x SOFI 17.00 / 16.00 Put Spread 2026-04-24 (10d)
Defined risk captures tail while selling into pinning GEX and concentrated put OI at 16/15. Using 4/24 (10d) balances theta with elevated ATM IV (10d ATM 52.8%). The put floor at $15-$16 and MP near $17 supports this downside-limited trade.
Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max gain. If SOFI closes below $16.50, consider rolling down or closing. If IV spikes and price drops toward $16.00, close at 80% of max loss or convert to longer-dated vertical to widen credit.
#3iron condor (defined-risk wings)
Sell 1x 18.00 Call / Buy 20.00 Call and Sell 1x 16.00 Put / Buy 15.00 Put 2026-04-24 (10d)
Wide short strikes capture the dealer pin area (GEX magnets at $18.00, $17.50, $19.00) and benefit from elevated IV and short-dated theta. Defined-risk wings protect against gap moves; structural call OI wall at $19-$25 gives overhead resistance to quick upside.
Mgmt: Take profit at 50% of max credit. If either short strike is tested (close within $0.25–$0.50 of a short strike) tighten: close wing or roll the tested side toward further OTM strikes for additional credit. Exit/close if SOFI closes below $15.50 or above $20.50 on daily close (breach of 1-week EM bounds).
#4calendar (buy/short calendar)
Long May 15 2026 Calls (31d) short Apr 24 2026 18.00 Call (buy longer-dated, sell near-dated) — ratio size small
IV term structure shows front-week IV ~52.8% while 31d ATM is higher (66.2%) — sell short-dated calls into rich near-term flow at $18 where there is GEX concentration and buy longer-dated call exposure if you want directional skew to the upside while collecting near-term theta. Use small size given execution complexity.
Mgmt: Aim to collect >40% of front month premium; close the short leg at 50–70% profit or if spot > short strike. If IV collapses across the curve, close entire structure. Roll short call out 1–2 weeks if short strike is threatened and you want to keep calendar.
!Earnings on 2026-04-28 and 2026-04-29 (within two weeks) — avoid selling naked premium through earnings; prefer defined-risk or close before announcement.
!Gamma flip at ~$15 — if price moves below $15 dealers flip and moves can accelerate; close credit positions below this level.
!High positive GEX (+$167.3M) can create pinning risk but also rapid mean reversion squeezes; if price starts trending away from $17-$19 on strong flow, manage early.
!Avg IV 72.9% is very elevated vs VIX 18.36 — while favorable to sellers, a large directional event or earnings surprise could produce outsized moves; keep defined risk.
!Heavy call OI at $19.00 (89,884 OI) and concentrated call flow at $17-$18 could create short squeezes into those levels; monitor large intraday flow (top premium flow shows >$4.2M at $17 and $4.5M at $18 in call flow).