base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.4% from MP
Term structure: Front-week ATM IV 53.0% (4/17), 14d 54.6% (4/24) then rises to 71.4% at 21d (kink) and settles ~65% in 30-45 DTE — calendar-rich shape favors selling near the peak (30-45 DTE)
Spot vs MP: Spot $16.22 — Above max pain $16.00 (2026-04-10) and MP rising to $17.00 on 4/17 (spot 1.4% above nearest MP)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$24.5M) — dealer gamma concentrated on upside strikes creating a magnet effect
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Below ~$15 dealers switch to negative gamma behavior; risk of acceleration to downside increases under $15
OI concentrations: Call walls $18-$22 (large call OI at $19, $20, $22); Put floor at $15 with heavy put OI at $15 (71,283) and $16 (57,591)
#1put spread
Sell 15 / Buy 13 put spread exp 2026-05-15 (35 DTE)
35 DTE has rich IV (ATM 65.7%) and GEX pinning around $15-$16 supports puts staying out of the money; structural put floor at $15 and MP near $16 give a defensive buffer.
Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit; roll down-and-out (e.g., widen or push to next monthly 30-45 DTE) if price closes below $15.50 or if underlying trending toward $15; cut losses (buy back / convert) if price trades and closes below $15 (gamma flip) or if position hits 75% of max loss.
#2cash-secured put (naked put)
Sell 15 put exp 2026-05-15 (35 DTE)
Direct premium capture with concentrated put OI at $15 and pinning GEX supports short puts; good entry for investors comfortable acquiring stock near $15 at a basis reduced by collected premium.
Mgmt: Close at 50-70% of max profit; roll down and out (next 30-45 DTE) if price drifts toward $15 but fundamentals acceptable; do not hold naked through earnings (earnings 4/28-4/29 within the next 2–3 weeks).
#3covered call
Sell 17 call on long stock (or buy stock and sell call) exp 2026-05-15 (35 DTE)
Selling the 17 call collects rich premium (heavy flow into $17 calls) while staying within the 1-week EM guardrail and just above current MP; matches bullish flow and generates yield while capping upside.
Mgmt: Close or roll up if stock rallies and approaches $17 with >40% of premium left to be earned; buy back if assigned near earnings window; target 50% profit to close if time value has decayed below threshold or if implied vol drops substantially.
#4iron condor (defined-risk)
Sell 15/13 put spread + Sell 19/21 call spread exp 2026-05-15 (35 DTE)
Defined-risk two-sided income to harvest elevated IV while respecting pinning to the $15-$17 band; wide-ish wings reflect expected move to May 15 ($13.60 - $18.83) and keep the position outside immediate 1-week EM.
Mgmt: Take profit at 40-50% of max credit; tighten or buy back if either short strike is tested (price within 0.25–0.50 of short strike) or if GEX/flow shifts strongly negative; cut losses if it reaches 70% of max loss on either wing.
!Earnings 2026-04-28 and 2026-04-29 (within two weeks) — avoid selling naked through earnings and prefer defined-risk or close positions before announcement.
!Gamma flip ~$15 — if price trades and closes below $15 dealer behavior changes and downside acceleration becomes likely; exit or hedge all short puts below this level.
!High IV but skewed call flow (large call buyer flow at $2.00/$17.00 strikes) — directional institutional call buying can compress skew and change wing risk; monitor unusual flow.
!Short-dated pinning + heavy call OI at $19/$22 — asymmetric risk if price gaps higher into call walls; consider defined-risk for two-sided exposure.
!Assignment risk on ex-dividends: no ex-dividend date provided in data set (none detected) — verify before holding short ITM calls into potential dividend dates.