base 5; +2 extremely high IV; +1 spot far below max pain; +1 positive GEX pinning; +1 bullish flow; -1 high VIX environment
Term structure: Humped at 29 DTE (5/01, 66.8% IV). High IV across all expirations >53%.
Spot vs MP: Spot $15.85 is 6.8% below near-term max pain of $17.00
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$24.0M — positive, mean-reverting)
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Estimated ~$15 based on massive put OI (71,266). Below this, positive GEX should support price.
OI concentrations: Major Call Walls: $19 (88,831 OI), $22 (88,062 OI). Major Put Walls: $15 (71,266 OI), $16 (57,614 OI).
#1put spread
Sell $15.00 / Buy $14.00 Put Spread, exp 2026-05-01 (29 DTE)
Targets the largest put OI strike ($15) for potential support. Captures peak IV (66.8% ATM) at the hump in term structure. Positive GEX regime supports pinning near this level. Max loss is limited to $0.55 per spread for a high probability trade.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit entire position if SOFI closes below $14.90 (just above the $15 strike). Do not roll.
#2iron condor
Sell $14.50 Put / Buy $14.00 Put & Sell $17.50 Call / Buy $18.00 Call, exp 2026-05-01 (29 DTE)
Captures peak IV (66.8% ATM) at the hump in term structure. Put side is above the gamma flip, call side is below the massive $19 call wall. Defined risk suits the volatile but pinning environment. High credit-to-width ratio (~1:1).
Mgmt: Close entire position at 50% max profit. Manage legs independently if one side is tested. Close if spot breaches a short strike intraday.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $14.50 Put, exp 2026-05-15 (43 DTE)
For sellers willing to own SOFI at an 8.5% discount to current price. Strike is above the gamma flip, in positive GEX territory. High IV (65.5% ATM) yields attractive premium. Breakeven is 16.1% below spot, providing a large margin of safety.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit only if put is ITM at 21 DTE. Close at 70% profit. Be prepared for assignment if price stays below $14.50.
#4call credit spread
Sell $17.00 / Buy $17.50 Call Spread, exp 2026-04-17 (15 DTE)
Short-delta hedge against a rally toward max pain ($17.00 for 4/17). Spot is well below this level. High IV (57.9% ATM) for a short-dated spread. The $17.00 strike is at the expected move upper bound ($17.35). Fast theta decay with defined risk.
Mgmt: Close at 80% max profit (fast theta decay). Exit if SOFI closes above $16.75.
!GEX regime has shifted from NEGATIVE to POSITIVE (+$24M). This is a major change favoring pinning, but be aware of violent squeezes if price moves through key OI levels.
!Earnings estimated for 2026-04-28 (~4 weeks away). Close or roll all short premium positions well before the announcement to avoid IV crush and gap risk.
!Massive, concentrated Open Interest at $15/$16 Puts and $19/$22 Calls. These are strong magnets that may cause violent pinning attempts or breaks.
!Unusual activity in deep OTM puts ($10 strike for 4/10 with 125% IV). This may indicate speculative hedging or tail-risk buying.
!Net premium flow is POSITIVE (+$448K) and P/C ratios are low (0.54 Vol, 0.57 OI), indicating bullish sentiment and call buying dominance.
!Spot ($15.85) is 6.8% below near-term max pain ($17). The gravitational pull toward pain is present, supported by positive GEX.