base 5; +2 extremely high IV; +1 spot far below max pain; +1 improved flow; -1 trending GEX; -0 high VIX environment
Term structure: Humped at 32 DTE (5/01, 72.4% IV). High IV across all expirations >61%.
Spot vs MP: Spot $15.44 is 9.2% below near-term max pain of $17.00
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$9.6M — negative, pro-cyclical)
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Estimated ~$15 based on massive put OI (71,224). Below this, negative GEX could accelerate downward moves.
OI concentrations: Major Call Walls: $19 (89,626 OI), $22 (88,268 OI). Major Put Walls: $15 (71,224 OI), $16 (59,519 OI).
#1put spread
Sell $15.00 / Buy $14.00 Put Spread, exp 2026-05-01 (32 DTE)
Targets the largest put OI strike ($15) for potential support. Captures peak IV (72.4% ATM) at the hump in term structure. Defined risk is essential in a trending GEX regime. Max loss is limited to $0.55 per spread for a high probability trade.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit entire position if SOFI closes below $14.90 (just above the $15 strike). Do not roll.
#2iron condor
Sell $14.00 Put / Buy $13.00 Put & Sell $17.00 Call / Buy $18.00 Call, exp 2026-05-01 (32 DTE)
Captures peak IV (72.4% ATM) at the hump in term structure. Wings are placed just outside the 1-SD expected move ($12.82 - $18.06). Call side is well below the massive $19 call wall. Defined risk suits the volatile environment. High credit-to-width ratio.
Mgmt: Close entire position at 50% max profit. Manage legs independently if one side is tested. Close if spot breaches a short strike intraday.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $14.00 Put, exp 2026-05-15 (46 DTE)
For sellers willing to own SOFI at a 9.3% discount to current price. Strikes below $15 avoid the heaviest OI and gamma flip zone. High IV (70.8% ATM) yields ~9.6% ROC on capital secured. Breakeven is 16.8% below spot, providing a large margin of safety.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit only if put is ITM at 21 DTE. Close at 70% profit. Be prepared for assignment if price stays below $14.
#4call credit spread
Sell $16.50 / Buy $17.50 Call Spread, exp 2026-04-10 (11 DTE)
Short-delta hedge against a rally toward max pain ($16.50 for 4/10). Spot is well below this level. High IV (62.3% ATM) for a weekly. The $16.50 strike is below the expected move upper bound ($16.77). Fast theta decay.
Mgmt: Close at 80% max profit (fast theta decay). Exit if SOFI closes above $16.25.
!GEX is NEGATIVE (-$9.6M) — This is a TRENDING regime. Moves can accelerate, especially below the ~$15 gamma flip. Defined risk is non-negotiable.
!Spot ($15.44) is 9.2% BELOW near-term max pain ($17). The gravitational pull toward pain is stronger, but negative GEX works against it.
!Earnings estimated for 2026-04-28 (~4 weeks away). Close or roll all short premium positions well before the announcement to avoid IV crush and gap risk.
!Massive, concentrated Open Interest at $15/$16 Puts and $19/$22 Calls. These are strong magnets that may cause violent pinning attempts or breaks.
!Unusual activity in deep OTM calls ($2, $4, $8, $9 strikes with IV >260%). This may indicate speculative lottery ticket buying or complex hedging.
!Net premium flow is now POSITIVE (+$112K), a shift from prior negative flow. This suggests a reduction in bearish put buying pressure, potentially stabilizing the tape.