base 5; +2 extremely high IV; +1 spot far below max pain; -1 trending GEX; -1 high VIX environment
Term structure: Humped at 34 DTE (5/01, 77.5% IV). High IV across all expirations >64%.
Spot vs MP: Spot $15.23 is 10.4% below near-term max pain of $17.00
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$16.3M — negative, pro-cyclical)
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Estimated ~$15 based on massive put OI. Below this, negative GEX could accelerate downward moves.
OI concentrations: Major Call Walls: $19 (90,689 OI), $22 (88,795 OI). Major Put Walls: $16 (73,331 OI), $15 (71,570 OI).
#1put spread
Sell $15.00 / Buy $14.00 Put Spread, exp 2026-04-17 (20 DTE)
Targets the largest put OI strike ($15) for potential support. High IV (69.1% ATM) provides rich premium. Defined risk is essential in a trending GEX regime. Max loss is limited to $0.70 per spread.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit entire position if SOFI closes below $14.90 (just above the $15 strike). Do not roll.
#2iron condor
Sell $14.00 Put / Buy $13.00 Put & Sell $17.00 Call / Buy $18.00 Call, exp 2026-05-01 (34 DTE)
Captures peak IV (77.5% ATM) at the hump in term structure. Wings are placed outside the 1-SD expected move ($12.33 - $18.12). Call side is well below the massive $19 call wall. Defined risk suits the volatile environment.
Mgmt: Close entire position at 50% max profit. Manage legs independently if one side is tested. Close if spot breaches a short strike intraday.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $14.00 Put, exp 2026-05-15 (48 DTE)
For sellers willing to own SOFI at a 8% discount to current price. Strikes below $15 avoid the heaviest OI and gamma flip zone. High IV (73.4% ATM) yields ~8.9% ROC on capital secured. Breakeven is 15% below spot.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit only if put is ITM at 21 DTE. Close at 70% profit. Be prepared for assignment if price stays below $14.
#4call credit spread
Sell $16.50 / Buy $17.50 Call Spread, exp 2026-04-10 (13 DTE)
Short-delta hedge against a rally toward max pain ($17). Spot is well below this level. High IV (68.2% ATM) for a weekly. The $16.50 strike is below the expected move upper bound ($16.85).
Mgmt: Close at 80% max profit (fast theta decay). Exit if SOFI closes above $16.25.
!GEX is NEGATIVE (-$16.3M) — This is a TRENDING regime. Moves can accelerate, especially below the ~$15 gamma flip. Defined risk is non-negotiable.
!Spot ($15.23) is now 10.4% BELOW near-term max pain ($17). The gravitational pull toward pain is stronger, but negative GEX works against it.
!VIX is elevated at 31.05, indicating broad market stress. This increases correlation risk and tail risk for all short premium positions.
!Massive, concentrated Open Interest at $15/$16 Puts and $19/$22 Calls. These are strong magnets that may cause violent pinning attempts or breaks.
!Unusual activity in deep OTM puts ($9 strike @ 149-162% IV). This may indicate hedging for a severe downside move or volatility speculation.
!Net premium flow is negative (-$17.0M), with heavy put buying at $15 and $16. This confirms a bearish directional bias in the options market.